The Simon-Ehrlich Wager (1980-1990)
Biologist Paul Ehrlich, author of 'The Population Bomb,' bet economist Julian Simon $1,000 that the prices of five metals—copper, chromium, nickel, tin, and tungsten—would rise over the next decade due to population growth and resource depletion. Simon, who argued human ingenuity creates abundance, let Ehrlich choose the commodities.
All five metals fell in inflation-adjusted price. Ehrlich mailed Simon a check for $576.07 in October 1990.
The bet became a touchstone in debates over population, resources, and environmental limits. Simon's 'ultimate resource' thesis—that human innovation overcomes scarcity—became foundational for optimistic economic frameworks including time-price analysis.
Time-price proponents explicitly build on Simon's framework, and the Simon Abundance Index is named in his honor. The 1980 bet established the intellectual lineage for arguments that rising populations correlate with falling real prices.