Overview
Trump just announced the United States will build battleships again. The USS Defiant—lead ship of the Trump-class—will be the largest American surface combatant since World War II at 35,000 tons, armed with nuclear cruise missiles, hypersonic weapons, rail guns, and lasers. Construction starts in 2030. The Navy wants 20 to 25 ships at over $10 billion each.
The announcement has split the defense establishment. China operates 370 warships to America's 294, and its shipbuilding capacity dwarfs ours by 230-to-1. But most naval analysts say the answer is swarms of small, cheap, distributed ships—not massive targets in an age when Ukrainian drone boats devastated Russia's Black Sea Fleet. The last battleship was decommissioned in 1992. The Navy's last attempt at a super-destroyer, the Zumwalt-class, became a $24 billion cautionary tale with only three ships built before cancellation.
Key Indicators
People Involved
Organizations Involved
The Navy operates 294 warships compared to China's 370-plus fleet.
America's largest military shipbuilder with 44,000 employees and a $56.9 billion backlog.
Timeline
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Naval Experts Voice Skepticism
AnalysisDefense analysts predict the program will never sail, noting years of design work, $9B+ per-ship costs, and contradiction with Navy's distributed operations doctrine. CSIS and other think tanks question whether future administrations will continue funding. Shipyard capacity concerns raised given Newport News is sole builder capable of construction while simultaneously building aircraft carriers.
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Trump Unveils Trump-Class Battleship Program
AnnouncementPresident Trump, Defense Secretary Hegseth, and Navy Secretary Phelan announce at Mar-a-Lago the USS Defiant will lead a new battleship class. Ships will displace 35,000 tons with nuclear cruise missiles, hypersonic weapons, lasers, rail guns. Initial buy of 2 ships, ultimate goal of 20-25. Construction planned for 2030 start. Cost estimates exceed $10B per ship.
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New FF(X) Frigate Program Announced
ProcurementNavy awards HII contract for small surface combatant frigates based on proven Legend-class Coast Guard cutter design. First hull expected 2028. Part of Golden Fleet's distributed warfare concept.
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Constellation-Class Frigate Program Cut
ProcurementSecretary Phelan terminates final 4 ships of troubled Constellation-class frigate program. GAO found program 36 months behind schedule. Only two ships under construction will be completed.
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John Phelan Confirmed as Navy Secretary
AppointmentSenate confirms investor John Phelan 62-30 as Navy Secretary. First person in 15+ years to lead Navy without military service. Promised to address housing, suicide rates, shipbuilding delays using business management experience.
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GAO Reports Shipbuilding Cost Crisis
InvestigationGovernment Accountability Office finds Navy shipbuilding programs running $10.4 billion over budget through 2029. DDG-51 delays grew by 18 months. DDG(X) costs estimated at $4.4B per ship versus Navy's $3.3B projection.
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Zumwalt-Class Program Truncated
ProcurementNavy cuts Zumwalt-class super-destroyer program to just 3 ships after costs reached $24 billion total. Originally planned for 32 ships at $1.4B each, final cost hit $8B per ship. Advanced Gun System rendered useless when ammunition cost $1M per round.
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Last US Battleship Decommissioned
HistoricalUSS Missouri retired from service, ending the battleship era. The Iowa-class battleships had been briefly reactivated in the 1980s and saw action in the Gulf War before final retirement.
Scenarios
Program Canceled Before First Ship Completed
Discussed by: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), multiple defense analysts quoted by CNN, DefenseScoop, and Washington Times
The battleship program follows the Zumwalt trajectory. Design work extends through 2028-2029 with cost estimates climbing to $12-15 billion per ship. A future administration facing budget constraints cancels the program after spending $3-5 billion on design and early construction. The Newport News shipyard capacity bottleneck becomes insurmountable when forced to choose between carriers and battleships. Congress redirects funds to the FF(X) frigate program and unmanned surface vessels that align with distributed maritime operations doctrine. The Trump-class becomes another cautionary tale in naval procurement.
Two Ships Built, Program Ends
Discussed by: Naval analysts at The War Zone, Breaking Defense, defense procurement experts
The Navy completes the initial two-ship buy with USS Defiant commissioning around 2035-2037. Costs reach $11-13 billion per ship as predicted. The ships prove capable but represent poor value compared to building 8-10 smaller surface combatants for the same price. Operational testing reveals vulnerabilities to modern anti-ship missiles and drone swarms. After the second ship, a budget-conscious Congress cuts funding. The two battleships serve as prestigious flagships for Pacific and Atlantic fleets but never see combat. They're eventually retrofitted as hypersonic missile platforms, abandoning the battleship concept.
Full Fleet Built, Doctrine Shifts to Capital Ships
Discussed by: Trump administration officials, supporters of the Golden Fleet concept, some naval traditionalists
A sustained political commitment across multiple administrations builds 15-20 Trump-class battleships through the 2040s. Advances in directed energy weapons, rail guns, and defensive systems prove effective against missiles and drones, validating heavy armor. A major conflict in the Pacific demonstrates that distributed small-vessel doctrine fails against peer adversaries with satellite targeting—the battleships' survivability and firepower prove decisive. China responds by building its own super-capital ships. Naval warfare shifts back toward large, heavily-armed platforms supported by unmanned escorts. The Golden Fleet becomes the new naval paradigm.
Redesigned as Arsenal Ships, Not Battleships
Discussed by: Technology-focused defense analysts, Navy weapons system experts
During the extended design phase, the Navy fundamentally rethinks the Trump-class. Heavy armor and guns are abandoned in favor of maximum missile capacity—500+ vertical launch cells carrying hypersonic weapons, anti-air missiles, and cruise missiles. The ships become floating arsenals supporting distributed operations, not battleships. This pivot saves the program politically by aligning with modern doctrine while preserving the large hull size for massive weapons capacity. The ships are built but bear little resemblance to the original battleship concept. They're effectively scaled-up versions of the arsenal ship concept the Navy explored in the 1990s.
Historical Context
Zumwalt-Class Destroyer Program (2001-2016)
2001-2016What Happened
The Navy attempted to build a revolutionary stealth destroyer with advanced guns, electric propulsion, and automation. Originally planning 32 ships at $1.4 billion each, costs exploded to $8 billion per ship. The Advanced Gun System's ammunition hit $1 million per round, rendering the guns useless. After building just three ships, the program was canceled in 2016.
Outcome
Short term: The three Zumwalt-class destroyers were repurposed for surface warfare and are now being retrofitted to carry hypersonic missiles.
Long term: The $24 billion failure became a cautionary tale that fundamentally changed Navy procurement. Congress now requires mature technologies before construction, following the mantra 'Build a little, test a little, learn a lot.'
Why It's Relevant
The Trump-class faces identical risks: unproven weapons systems (rail guns, lasers), ambitious specifications, and a single shipyard. Critics cite Zumwalt as evidence this program will fail the same way.
Great White Fleet World Tour (1907-1909)
1907-1909What Happened
President Theodore Roosevelt sent 16 new battleships on a globe-circling voyage to demonstrate American naval power. The fleet visited dozens of countries over 14 months, signaling that the United States had become the world's second-largest navy. The deployment was partly aimed at Japan following tensions over immigration and influence in the Pacific.
Outcome
Short term: The voyage was considered a diplomatic success, easing tensions with Japan while showcasing American industrial and naval strength.
Long term: The Great White Fleet established the United States as a global naval power, transforming perceptions from a regional player to a world-stage force. It validated Roosevelt's 'speak softly and carry a big stick' doctrine.
Why It's Relevant
Trump's Golden Fleet consciously echoes Roosevelt's power projection. Both presidents used naval expansion to signal American strength amid great-power competition—Roosevelt against Japan, Trump against China. The parallel suggests the battleship program is as much about symbolism as capability.
Iowa-Class Battleship Decommissioning (1992)
1945-1992What Happened
The Iowa-class battleships served in World War II, Korea, and after 1980s reactivation, the Gulf War. USS Missouri was the last to decommission in March 1992. The Navy concluded that in the missile age, battleships were too expensive to operate, required 1,500+ crew versus 300 for a destroyer, and were vulnerable to modern anti-ship missiles despite heavy armor.
Outcome
Short term: All four Iowa-class ships became museums. The industrial base to build battleships—gun barrel foundries, armor plate mills—disappeared.
Long term: For 33 years, no navy has built a traditional battleship. The naval warfare consensus shifted to smaller, more numerous surface combatants with missiles rather than large capital ships with guns.
Why It's Relevant
The Trump-class attempts to reverse this 33-year consensus. Advocates say new technologies (hypersonics, lasers, rail guns) have changed the calculus. Critics say the same vulnerability problems exist—possibly worse given advances in anti-ship missiles and drone swarms.