Overview
Hours after taking office on January 20, 2025, President Trump signed an executive order freezing all U.S. foreign aid for 90 days. What followed was the systematic dismantlement of USAID, the government's humanitarian arm: stop-work orders shuttered HIV clinics in Ivory Coast, refugee camps lost infrastructure support, and 3.8 million women lost access to contraceptive care. By March, the administration had terminated 5,800 contracts, fired over 1,600 employees, and placed nearly all of USAID's 4,700 workers on leave. Secretary of State Marco Rubio took control of the agency, calling it "completely unresponsive" and announcing plans to absorb what remains into the State Department.
The fight to save USAID briefly found a champion in an unlikely place: Judge Carl Nichols, a Trump appointee to the federal bench. On February 7, he blocked the administration from placing 2,200 employees on leave and reinstated 500 already sidelined, ruling that overseas workers faced "irreparable injury" by losing access to email, payment, and security warnings in dangerous locations. The relief lasted two weeks. On February 21, Nichols reversed course, finding the unions couldn't prove irreparable harm. Hours later, the mass firings began. At stake: a $35 billion agency that saved 25 million lives through PEPFAR, responded to humanitarian crises worldwide, and represented America's soft power presence in 55 countries.
Key Indicators
People Involved
Organizations Involved
America's foreign aid agency, created by Kennedy to compete with Soviet soft power during the Cold War.
Federal employee union representing 800,000 workers, including 800 at USAID.
Represents 80% of U.S. Foreign Service members, including nearly 2,000 USAID Foreign Service Officers.
Timeline
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USAID Ceases Operations
AdministrativeOfficial end of USAID's authority to implement foreign assistance. Remaining programs transferred to State Department control.
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Pete Marocco Leaves State Department
PersonnelThe architect of USAID's dismantlement departs amid reported tensions between Rubio team and MAGA movement.
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Final Workforce Terminations Announced
Workforce ReductionAdministration announces termination of remaining 900 USAID employees, effective July 1 or September 2.
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State Department Terminates 5,800 Contracts
AdministrativeCompleted review results in cancellation of 5,800 USAID contract awards and 4,100 State grants. Programs across 55 countries shut down.
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4,700 USAID Workers Placed on Leave
Workforce ReductionMidnight deadline: nearly entire USAID workforce placed on paid administrative leave. Termination letters begin going out for 1,600 positions.
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Court Clears Path for Dismantlement
LegalJudge Nichols denies preliminary injunction, ruling unions failed to prove irreparable harm. Mass layoffs proceed immediately.
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Judge Extends Restraining Order
LegalAfter extensive hearing, Nichols extends TRO by one week through February 21, modifies evacuation provisions.
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Federal Judge Blocks Mass Layoffs
LegalJudge Carl Nichols issues TRO blocking placement of 2,200 USAID employees on leave, reinstates 500 already sidelined, cites irreparable harm to overseas workers losing security access.
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Unions Sue to Block Shutdown
LegalAFGE and AFSA file federal lawsuit challenging USAID dismantlement as unconstitutional, seeking emergency relief for workers.
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USAID Staff Ordered on Leave
AdministrativeDirective issued: all USAID direct hire personnel globally to be placed on administrative leave Friday at 11:59 PM, except mission-critical functions.
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Rubio Takes Control of USAID
LeadershipSecretary of State announces he's acting USAID administrator, effectively placing agency under State Department control. Names Marocco as deputy.
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Pete Marocco Orders Aid Freeze
AdministrativeNewly installed as State's Foreign Assistance Director, Marocco sends cable ordering immediate halt to new aid spending and stop-work on existing contracts.
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Trump Freezes All Foreign Aid
Executive ActionHours after inauguration, Trump signs EO 14169 pausing all U.S. foreign development assistance for 90 days. Stop-work orders follow.
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Samantha Power Sworn In as Administrator
LeadershipPower becomes first USAID administrator to serve on National Security Council, elevating agency's profile under Biden.
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Kennedy Creates USAID
FoundingPresident Kennedy signs Foreign Assistance Act and executive order establishing USAID to unify U.S. development aid programs during the Cold War.
Scenarios
USAID Fully Abolished, Functions Scattered
Discussed by: Democracy Forward, Congressional Democrats, foreign policy analysts
The Trump administration completes its plan to dissolve USAID entirely by late 2025. The State Department absorbs a handful of programs deemed aligned with "America First" priorities—primarily security assistance and economic development tied to strategic interests. Everything else gets zeroed out: global health programs, humanitarian aid, democracy promotion. Congress pushes back but lacks the votes to override. Former USAID expertise scatters to NGOs, contractors, and academia. U.S. soft power collapses in Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia. China fills the vacuum.
Congressional Intervention Forces Partial Restoration
Discussed by: Senate moderates, appropriations committees, global health advocates
Bipartisan pressure builds as global health crises mount—PEPFAR's suspension triggers HIV outbreaks, malaria deaths spike, vaccine programs collapse. Moderate Republicans join Democrats to pass legislation restoring some USAID funding and authority through appropriations riders. The agency limps forward as a shell of its former self, perhaps 30-40% of prior capacity, focused narrowly on health and disaster response. The damage to development programs and institutional knowledge proves irreversible.
Court Rules Dismantlement Unconstitutional
Discussed by: Public Citizen Litigation Group, constitutional law experts
The AFGE/AFSA lawsuit survives past preliminary injunction. A federal appeals court or ultimately the Supreme Court rules that the president cannot abolish a congressionally-created agency without legislative approval. The decision comes too late to save the workforce—thousands have already been fired and moved on—but forces Congress to formally vote on USAID's future. The fight becomes a 2026 campaign issue, potentially allowing a new administration to rebuild if Democrats win.
Humanitarian Catastrophe Forces Policy Reversal
Discussed by: International aid organizations, UN agencies, global health experts
The consequences of aid withdrawal become undeniable: mass starvation in Somalia, cholera outbreaks in refugee camps, collapse of HIV treatment in sub-Saharan Africa creating drug-resistant strains. International condemnation intensifies. Even conservative media questions the optics. Trump administration reverses course, restoring limited USAID operations under tighter White House control, but the agency never recovers its independence or scope.
Historical Context
Interstate Commerce Commission Abolishment (1995)
1887-1995What Happened
The ICC was the federal government's first independent regulatory commission, created in 1887 to regulate railroads. It grew into a powerful agency with broad authority over transportation. By the 1970s, deregulation movements targeted it as outdated and bureaucratic. Congress passed legislation gradually stripping its powers through the 1980s. In 1995, Congress voted to abolish it entirely, transferring remaining functions to the Surface Transportation Board.
Outcome
Short term: Agency functions transferred to smaller entity without major disruption to transportation regulation.
Long term: Became the template for how to properly eliminate a federal agency: through legislation, not executive fiat.
Why It's Relevant
The ICC precedent shows that abolishing federal agencies requires congressional approval—exactly what Trump is trying to bypass with USAID.
Nixon's Failed Attempt to Abolish OEO (1973)
1973-1974What Happened
President Nixon tried to dismantle the Office of Economic Opportunity by refusing to spend appropriated funds and scattering its programs across other agencies without congressional authorization. Federal courts ruled the impoundment unconstitutional. Congress fought back, but the agency was weakened. Reagan finally succeeded in abolishing OEO in 1981—by working with Congress to pass legislation, not unilateral executive action.
Outcome
Short term: Courts blocked Nixon's unilateral dismantlement; agency limped forward in damaged form.
Long term: Established that presidents cannot abolish agencies alone, but persistent executive hostility can functionally gut them before courts intervene.
Why It's Relevant
Trump is repeating Nixon's strategy with USAID: create facts on the ground through mass firings, then dare courts to restore what's already destroyed.
Department of Education Nearly Abolished (1980s-present)
1980-presentWhat Happened
Since its creation in 1979, the Department of Education has been a Republican target. Reagan campaigned on abolishing it but never had the votes. Subsequent Republican presidents and Congress members proposed elimination bills that went nowhere. The department survived through congressional protection, even as conservatives succeeded in constraining its regulatory reach and funding growth.
Outcome
Short term: Department survived all abolishment attempts through congressional resistance.
Long term: Demonstrated that agencies with strong constituencies and clear statutory authority are difficult to eliminate without overwhelming political will.
Why It's Relevant
USAID lacks the domestic constituency that saved Education—foreign aid has few voters defending it, making Trump's unilateral dismantlement politically easier.