Congressional Budget Office

Money Moves

Published shutdown economic impact analysis

The United States economy grew at an annualized rate of just 1.4% in the final quarter of 2025—a steep drop from 4.4% the quarter before and well below the 2.5% that forecasters expected. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) estimates that the 43-day government shutdown, the longest in American history, subtracted roughly one full percentage point from growth by itself. Federal spending fell at a 16.6% annualized rate during the quarter, dragging headline output down by more than a percentage point even as consumer spending and business investment continued to expand.

Updated Feb 20

Rule Changes

Provides cost estimates for subsidy proposals

The House passed a three-year extension of Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies on January 8, 2026, by a 230-196 vote, with 17 Republicans joining Democrats after a discharge petition bypassed Speaker Mike Johnson's opposition. The subsidies had expired December 31, 2025, more than doubling premiums for 22 million Americans—92% of marketplace enrollees. A 60-year-old couple earning $85,000 now faces $22,600 more annually in premiums.

Updated Feb 6

Force in Play

Released cost analysis

The last time a president invoked the Insurrection Act to deploy federal troops in American cities was 1992, during the Los Angeles riots. President Trump has deployed over 10,000 National Guard troops and active-duty Marines to six cities since June 2025—without invoking that law. The Congressional Budget Office now reports the seven-month operation cost taxpayers $496 million, with ongoing deployments projected to add $93 million monthly.

Updated Jan 29

Rule Changes

Scored Medicare obesity drug coverage at $35B over 10 years

Medicare has been banned from covering weight loss drugs since 2003. CMS launched the BALANCE voluntary model in December 2025 to work around the law—negotiating $50-per-month access to Ozempic, Wegovy, and similar blockbusters for 10% of Medicare enrollees starting July 2026. The workaround: don't call it weight loss coverage, call it treatment for chronic disease with specific comorbidities. Manufacturer applications closed January 8, 2026, with negotiations continuing through February 28.

Updated Jan 14