Bart De Wever

Force in Play

Navigating coalition divisions over Hormuz participation

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) shut the Strait of Hormuz on February 28, 2026, after US-Israeli strikes — choking off roughly a fifth of global oil supply. A Pakistan-mediated two-week ceasefire agreed around April 8 paused direct hostilities but failed to reopen the strait: Iran charged ships up to $2 million in tolls through an alternate channel north of Larak Island. After the first face-to-face US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad collapsed on April 12 over Iran's refusal to abandon its nuclear weapons program, President Trump announced a naval blockade of all Iranian ports, effective April 13. Then, on April 17, Iran's Foreign Minister declared the strait "completely open" for commercial vessels for the remaining ceasefire period — briefly sending oil prices sharply lower. Within 24 hours, Iran reversed course entirely: the IRGC re-closed the strait on April 18, fired on the VLCC tanker Sanmar Herald approximately 20 nautical miles off Oman, and forced two Indian-flagged ships to turn back, warning that any vessel approaching the strait would be treated as "cooperating with the enemy." Iran cited the continuing US blockade of its ports as a ceasefire violation justifying the re-closure. On April 19, Iran confirmed it had received new US proposals transmitted via Pakistan and said it was reviewing them.

Updated Apr 19

Force in Play

Pledged solidarity with Jewish community after Liege attack

Four attacks on Jewish buildings across three countries in six days. An explosion at a synagogue in Liege, Belgium on March 9 was followed by a strike in Greece, an arson bombing at a Rotterdam synagogue on March 13, and an overnight blast at Amsterdam's only Orthodox Jewish school on March 14. No one has been killed, but the tempo is accelerating: the Amsterdam and Rotterdam attacks came less than 24 hours apart.

Updated Mar 14

Force in Play

Blocked EU plan to use frozen Russian assets for Ukraine loan, citing risk to Euroclear

Since early December 2025, the war has featured intensified winter ground operations in Kharkiv and Donetsk alongside massive drone and missile campaigns targeting each side's war economies. Russia's February 16-17 barrage of 425 drones and 29 missiles coincided with Geneva trilateral talks that concluded February 18 with limited military progress but no political breakthroughs on territorial compromises or security guarantees—Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy deemed outcomes 'not sufficient' and called for a follow-up meeting later in February. Ukraine responded with deep strikes, including the February 21 hit on Votkinsk missile plant 1,300 km inside Russia using indigenous cruise missiles, while reporting marginal advances in central Kupyansk as of February 19.

Updated Feb 21

Money Moves

Secured guarantees on frozen Russian assets liability

The European Union approved a €90 billion loan package for Ukraine on February 4, 2026—the largest single financial commitment in the bloc's history to a non-member state. Two-thirds of the money, €60 billion, will purchase weapons and ammunition; the remaining €30 billion covers government operations. Ukraine will only repay the loan if Russia agrees to war reparations, meaning the EU expects to carry this debt indefinitely.

Updated Feb 5

Rule Changes

Successfully vetoed reparations-loan structure; forced EU to pivot to budget-backed lending while protecting Euroclear from immediate legal exposure

Russia's central bank sued Euroclear in Moscow on December 12, seeking €193.7 billion in damages. Six days later the plan that triggered the lawsuit—using frozen reserves to back Ukraine loans—collapsed at the European Council. Belgium refused the legal risk; the EU pivoted to a €90 billion conventional loan backed by its own budget instead.

Updated Dec 27, 2025