Lai Ching-te

Force in Play

Welcoming closer Japan ties and Japanese lawmaker visits while facing Chinese pressure around Taiwan

What began with Chinese carrier fighters lighting up Japanese jets with radar near Okinawa has mushroomed into a full-spectrum crisis. After China and Russia sent bombers circling Japan, the US flew B-52s with Japanese fighters over the Sea of Japan. Then Beijing struck back economically: on January 6, 2026, China banned all dual-use exports to Japan's military—rare earths, aerospace alloys, advanced electronics—citing Tokyo's "egregious" Taiwan stance. Meanwhile Japanese lawmakers visited Taiwan in droves through December, the Liaoning carrier returned home after six days and 260 sorties, and Japan briefed NATO on what it calls China's deliberate intimidation.

Updated Jan 9

Force in Play

Leading Taiwan's response to unprecedented military pressure

On December 29-30, 2025, China executed its largest military drills around Taiwan to date—Operation 'Justice Mission 2025'—deploying 130 aircraft, 22 warships, and live-fire exercises across seven zones encircling the island. Over two days, fighter jets crossed the median line, naval vessels simulated port blockades at Keelung and Kaohsiung, and PLA ground forces conducted coordinated long-range strikes both north and south of Taiwan. The drills escalated on December 30 with 10 hours of live-fire activities in designated 'temporary danger zones,' forcing cancellation of 76 domestic flights and delays to 300+ international flights affecting over 106,000 passengers. China framed the exercises as dual punishment: for the record $11 billion U.S. arms package announced December 17, and for Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi's warning that Tokyo could intervene militarily if Beijing blockades Taiwan.

Updated Dec 30, 2025

Force in Play

Pushing a multi-year defense budget increase while seeking faster U.S. arms deliveries

The record Taiwan arms tranche (about $11.1B across eight DSCA notifications) is now in the congressional review lane, but the story has already widened beyond hardware: Taiwan’s Defense Ministry and presidential office emphasized the buys are contingent on legislative funding, with local reporting outlining that five of the eight cases sit inside a pending NT$1.25 trillion special defense budget—meaning the political fight in Taipei is now a direct throttle on how fast the package can move from “possible sale” to signed LOAs.

Updated Dec 18, 2025

Force in Play

Using the crisis to argue China is destabilizing the region while urging restraint.

Chinese J-15 fighter jets flying from the aircraft carrier Liaoning repeatedly locked targeting radar onto Japanese F-15s near Okinawa on December 6, forcing Japan to scramble jets and lodge an emergency protest. Days later, Washington publicly accused Beijing of destabilizing behavior and vowed its commitment to Japan was “unwavering,” turning a dangerous cockpit decision into a trilateral showdown.

Updated Dec 11, 2025

Force in Play

Key stakeholder whose security posture shapes China–Japan–U.S. calculations

In early December 2025, China’s Liaoning aircraft carrier strike group sailed through waters near Japan’s southwest island chain and into the western Pacific, conducting roughly 100 take-offs and landings of J-15 fighters and helicopters over two days between Okinawa’s main island and Minamidaito and then east of Kikai Island. Japan’s Self-Defense Forces say Chinese fighters repeatedly directed fire-control radar at Japanese F-15s shadowing the group near Okinawa, a step that can signal preparations to fire weapons. Tokyo summoned China’s ambassador Wu Jianghao to protest what it called a dangerous and regrettable act, while Beijing denied the radar targeting and accused Japanese aircraft of harassing normal training.

Updated Dec 11, 2025