Overview
On December 29, 2025, China launched its largest military drills around Taiwan to date—Operation 'Justice Mission 2025'—deploying 89 aircraft, 14 warships, and live-fire exercises across five zones encircling the island. Fighter jets crossed the median line, naval vessels simulated port blockades at Keelung and Kaohsiung, and rockets positioned for coordinated strikes. The drills escalated on December 30 with 10 hours of live-fire activities in designated 'temporary danger zones,' forcing the diversion of over 100,000 international passengers. China framed the exercises as dual punishment: for the record $11 billion U.S. arms package announced December 17, and for Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi's warning that Tokyo could intervene militarily if Beijing blockades Taiwan.
This is the fourth major crisis in the Taiwan Strait since the 1950s, but unlike Cold War-era shelling or missile tests, today's escalation unfolds against a transformed backdrop: China now fields the world's largest navy, Taiwan produces 90% of advanced semiconductors the global economy depends on, U.S. strategic ambiguity is fraying, and Japan is openly discussing military intervention. Each drill normalizes what was once unthinkable—PLA forces operating as if Taiwan's waters are already theirs, while regional powers debate how far they'll go to stop it. The question is no longer if Beijing will move, but when, and whether economic devastation or coordinated military intervention can deter it.
Key Indicators
People Involved
Organizations Involved
The PLA's most strategically sensitive command, headquartered in Nanjing, focused on Taiwan and the East China Sea.
Taiwan's defense ministry, responsible for deterring and defending against PLA aggression.
The world's leading semiconductor manufacturer, integral to Taiwan's 'silicon shield' strategy.
Timeline
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Taiwan Coastguard Deploys Large Ships
MilitaryTaiwan's coastguard dispatches large vessels in response to Chinese coastguard activity near its waters, coordinating with military to minimize drills' impact on maritime routes and fishing areas.
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Taiwan Presidential Office Condemns 'Unilateral Provocation'
StatementPresidential Office spokesperson Karen Kuo condemns drills as 'blatantly undermining security and stability of the Taiwan Strait and Indo-Pacific region,' accusing China of 'disregarding international norms and using military intimidation to threaten neighboring countries.'
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Live-Fire Phase Begins: 100,000+ Passengers Diverted
MilitaryPLA conducts 10-hour live-fire exercises across five designated zones surrounding Taiwan. China designates 'temporary danger zones' in Taiwan's airspace, forcing diversion of over 100,000 international passengers and 6,000 domestic passengers. Taiwan's aviation authority implements alternative flight routes.
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Taiwan Activates Rapid-Response Exercises
MilitaryDefense ministry establishes response center, deploys forces, and showcases HIMARS systems capable of striking mainland China's Fujian coast.
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China Launches Operation 'Justice Mission 2025'
MilitaryPLA deploys 89 aircraft (67 entering response zones), 14 warships, 14 coast guard ships in live-fire drills across five zones encircling Taiwan. Simulates port blockades and coordinated strikes—largest exercises to date.
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China Sanctions 20 U.S. Defense Companies
EconomicBeijing responds to arms sale by sanctioning firms including Boeing and 10 executives involved in Taiwan weapons sales.
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U.S. Approves $11 Billion Arms Package to Taiwan
MilitaryLargest-ever package includes 82 HIMARS launchers, 420 ATACMS missiles (300km range), 60 howitzers, $1B in drones, and tactical network software.
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Trump's National Security Strategy Omits 'One China Policy'
StrategicNew U.S. strategy paper excludes traditional 'One China' language for first time, signaling policy shift on Taiwan.
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Japan PM Says Taiwan Blockade Could Trigger Military Response
StatementTakaichi tells Diet that Chinese blockade would be 'survival-threatening situation,' potentially allowing Japanese collective self-defense operations.
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Sanae Takaichi Becomes Japan's Prime Minister
PoliticalJapan's first female prime minister takes office with 75% approval rating.
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China Launches Joint Sword-2024A Drills
MilitaryPLA Eastern Theater Command conducts exercises around Taiwan and outlying islands in nine zones, calling them punishment for 'Taiwan independence forces.'
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President Lai Inaugurated, Urges Beijing to Stop Intimidation
PoliticalIn inaugural speech, Lai calls on China to 'face the reality of Taiwan's existence' and choose dialogue over confrontation.
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Lai Ching-te Wins Taiwan Presidency
PoliticalDemocratic Progressive Party candidate wins despite Beijing labeling him a dangerous separatist, marking third consecutive DPP term.
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Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis Begins
MilitaryChina launches largest drills in decades: 11 missiles, four flying over Taiwan, 120+ aircraft cross median line. PLA effectively erases informal boundary.
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Nancy Pelosi Visits Taiwan
DiplomaticU.S. House Speaker becomes highest-ranking American official to visit Taiwan in 25 years, defying Beijing's warnings.
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Xi Sets PLA 2027 Modernization Deadline
StrategicAt CCP centenary, Xi orders PLA to achieve full modernization by 100th anniversary of PLA founding (August 1, 2027).
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PLA Eastern Theater Command Established
MilitaryXi Jinping reorganizes military into five theater commands, with Eastern Theater focused on Taiwan.
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China Fires Missiles Near Taiwan; U.S. Sends Carriers
MilitaryPLA launches missiles to intimidate voters before Taiwan's first democratic presidential election. Clinton deploys USS Nimitz and USS Independence. China backs down but begins decades-long military modernization.
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U.S. Grants Visa to Taiwan's President Lee Teng-hui
DiplomaticDespite assurances to Beijing, U.S. allows Lee to visit Cornell University, triggering Third Taiwan Strait Crisis.
Scenarios
Blockade Escalates to Limited War by 2027
Discussed by: CSIS war games, Pentagon assessments, Council on Foreign Relations analysis
China tightens a 'quarantine' blockade using coast guard and naval vessels to strangle Taiwan's energy imports without firing a shot—at first. As electricity production drops to 20% of normal and Taiwan's economy seizes, the U.S. faces the choice between accepting a slow-motion annexation or breaking the blockade militarily. CSIS ran 26 war games on this scenario: every one found that blockades create 'escalatory pressures difficult to contain,' leading to shooting between Chinese and U.S. forces. If this happens before 2027, the U.S. likely prevails; after 2027, when the PLA completes modernization, the outcome becomes uncertain. Japan's willingness to allow U.S. forces to operate from its bases—and potentially join combat operations per PM Takaichi's warning—could be decisive.
Status Quo Frozen: Deterrence Holds Through 2030s
Discussed by: Stimson Center scholars, silicon shield proponents, economic interdependence theorists
Taiwan's semiconductor dominance—90% of advanced chips—creates a $5 trillion tripwire. Bloomberg Economics calculates a Taiwan conflict would trigger global depression, hitting China's economy as hard as anyone's. Beijing continues aggressive drills and gray-zone pressure but stops short of kinetic action because the economic cost of actually seizing Taiwan outweighs the benefit. Taiwan uses HIMARS and asymmetric defenses to raise the invasion cost to unacceptable levels. The U.S. maintains credible deterrence through forward presence and arms sales. Xi concludes that patient economic integration and political isolation offer a safer path to eventual reunification than military force. This scenario assumes TSMC's monopoly doesn't erode faster than expected and that U.S. political will doesn't collapse.
Fait Accompli: China Seizes Offshore Islands, U.S. Doesn't Respond
Discussed by: RAND Corporation analysis, Georgetown security scholars, Pentagon red team exercises
Rather than invade Taiwan itself, China seizes Kinmen or Matsu—Taiwanese islands less than 10km from the mainland—in a lightning operation. The PLA calculates the U.S. won't risk war over small islands most Americans can't locate on a map. Taiwan faces the dilemma of escalating to full mobilization (exactly what Beijing wants as pretext) or accepting the loss. If Washington doesn't respond decisively, it shatters deterrence and signals Taiwan is on its own. Beijing then tightens the noose incrementally: more aggressive air incursions, economic coercion, cyber attacks, another island next year. Each step dares the U.S. to cross a threshold it previously declined. Salami-slicing strategy that could deliver Taiwan without the risks of amphibious invasion.
Internal Crisis Delays Taiwan Action Past 2035
Discussed by: China economic analysts, demographic researchers, CCP succession watchers
China's economic slowdown deepens—youth unemployment hits 25%, property sector collapses, local government debt spirals. Demographic crisis accelerates as working-age population shrinks. Xi faces internal Party challenges to his authority or succession pressures as he ages past 80. Under these conditions, launching a risky Taiwan operation becomes politically untenable. The CCP's legitimacy depends on delivering prosperity; a failed Taiwan campaign or protracted conflict that crashes the economy could threaten Party survival. Beijing postpones reunification timelines indefinitely, maintaining rhetorical commitment while focusing on domestic stability. Taiwan gains breathing room to strengthen defenses and international partnerships. The 2049 'national rejuvenation' goal quietly fades.
Historical Context
Third Taiwan Strait Crisis (1995-1996)
May 1995 - March 1996What Happened
After the U.S. granted Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui a visa to visit Cornell University—despite promises to Beijing it wouldn't—China launched missile tests and military exercises to intimidate voters before Taiwan's first democratic presidential election in March 1996. The PLA fired missiles into waters near Taiwan's major ports. President Clinton responded by deploying two aircraft carrier battle groups (USS Nimitz and USS Independence) to the region. Faced with superior U.S. naval power, China backed down.
Outcome
Short term: Taiwan held its election peacefully; Lee won decisively. U.S. demonstrated commitment to Taiwan's security.
Long term: China began intensive military modernization—double-digit defense budgets for two decades—to ensure the PLA could defeat U.S. intervention next time. The humiliation of 1996 directly led to today's PLA capabilities.
Why It's Relevant
In 1996, China couldn't challenge U.S. carriers. Today, the PLA fields the world's largest navy, hypersonic missiles, and anti-access systems designed specifically to keep U.S. forces out of the Taiwan Strait. The power balance has fundamentally shifted.
Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis (August 2022)
August 2-24, 2022What Happened
U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan despite Beijing's warnings, becoming the highest-ranking American official to visit in 25 years. China responded with its largest military exercises ever around Taiwan: launching 11 ballistic missiles (four flying directly over Taipei for the first time), deploying 120+ aircraft across the median line, and encircling the island with naval forces. The PLA used the crisis to establish a 'new normal'—effectively erasing the informal median line boundary that had kept forces separated for decades.
Outcome
Short term: Beijing suspended eight military dialogues with Washington. International shipping and aviation temporarily disrupted.
Long term: PLA aircraft now routinely cross the median line—over 3,000 sorties annually. What was once an escalation became normalized. China demonstrated blockade capabilities and willingness to use Pelosi's visit as justification for permanent operational changes.
Why It's Relevant
Justice Mission 2025 follows the Pelosi playbook: use a U.S. action (arms sale) as pretext for drills that normalize even more aggressive behavior. Each crisis permanently shifts what counts as 'status quo.'
Russia's Invasion of Ukraine (February 2022 - ongoing)
February 24, 2022 - presentWhat Happened
Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, expecting to seize Kyiv within days. Ukrainian resistance, Western military aid (including HIMARS rocket systems), and economic sanctions stalled the invasion. The war has cost Russia hundreds of thousands of casualties, gutted its economy, and demonstrated that modern precision weapons can defeat larger conventional forces if defenders are committed and supplied.
Outcome
Short term: Ukraine survived initial onslaught; war became grinding attrition. Russia holds ~20% of Ukrainian territory.
Long term: Western unity proved stronger than expected. Sanctions showed economic interdependence cuts both ways. Small powers with advanced weapons can resist superpowers if backed by alliances.
Why It's Relevant
Taiwan is not Ukraine—it's an island, invasion is exponentially harder, and TSMC makes it economically critical in ways Ukraine wasn't. But Ukraine showed Beijing that: 1) invasions don't always go as planned, 2) Western sanctions can be devastating, 3) international isolation is costly, and 4) defenders armed with systems like HIMARS (now being sold to Taiwan) can exact brutal costs. The question is whether Ukraine deters Xi or teaches him to move faster and more decisively.