In early December 2025, China's Liaoning carrier strike group sailed through waters near Japan's southwest island chain and into the western Pacific. Over two days, between Okinawa's main island and Minamidaito and then east of Kikai Island, it conducted roughly 100 take-offs and landings of J-15 fighters and helicopters.
Japan's Self-Defense Forces say Chinese fighters repeatedly directed fire-control radar at Japanese F-15s shadowing the group near Okinawa, a step that can signal preparations to fire weapons. Tokyo summoned China's ambassador Wu Jianghao to protest what it called a dangerous and regrettable act. Beijing denied the radar targeting and accused Japanese aircraft of harassing normal training.
The incident comes against a 2025 China–Japan diplomatic crisis: Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi explicitly stated that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could constitute a survival-threatening situation for Japan, potentially justifying collective self-defense. Beijing retaliated with travel advisories, frozen seafood import talks, and a surge in military deployments across East Asian waters. Japanese leaders, under a 2022 security strategy that labels China the "greatest strategic challenge," promised to respond calmly but firmly and deepen coordination with the United States and Taiwan. The radar row shows how tightly the East China Sea island dispute, Japan's rearmament, and Taiwan's security have become intertwined — an accident near Okinawa could drag multiple powers into a crisis.
Approximate number of take-offs and landings by Chinese carrier-based aircraft from Liaoning near Okinawa between December 6–7, 2025, underscoring the PLAN’s growing blue‑water capability and willingness to operate near Japan.
2
Radar lock incidents on December 6, 2025
Japan reports two separate instances in which J-15 fighters from Liaoning directed fire-control radar at JASDF F-15s near Okinawa, echoing a 2013 radar lock dispute and raising fears of miscalculation.
2%
Target share of Japan’s GDP for defense
Japan’s 2022 strategic documents commit to roughly doubling defense spending to about 2% of GDP within five years, including funding for counterstrike and long-range missile capabilities aimed in part at deterring China in a Taiwan contingency.
43 trillion yen
Five-year increase in Japanese defense outlays
China’s state media criticizes Japan’s plan to allocate about ¥43 trillion (≈$318 billion) for defense over five years as evidence of militarization, while Tokyo frames it as a response to an unprecedented strategic challenge from China.
270 km
Closest reported approach of Liaoning to key Japanese outpost
Japan tracked Liaoning about 270 km west of Okinotorishima and later roughly 190 km east of Kikai Island, distances that place Chinese carrier aviation within easy reach of key Japanese facilities and U.S. bases in Okinawa.
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16 events
Latest: December 8th, 2025 · 6 months ago
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December 2025
Liaoning continues high-tempo air operations as China and Japan trade barbs
LatestMilitary Activity
Japan confirms that Liaoning’s aircraft carried out around 100 total take‑offs and landings over December 6–7, including operations between Okinawa and Minamidaito and east of Kikai Island, even as the radar dispute unfolds. Tokyo reiterates that it will respond calmly but firmly, while Beijing rejects radar allegations and warns Japan against harassing its drills or meddling over Taiwan.
China responds to new U.S. security strategy, restates Taiwan red line
Public Statement
The Chinese government denounces the latest U.S. National Security Strategy, which calls for deterring conflict with Beijing and strengthening Indo‑Pacific military posture, and reiterates that Taiwan remains a core red line. Taiwan welcomes the U.S. stance and announces long-term defense spending increases, while Japan’s evolving policy and the Liaoning incident underscore how U.S., Chinese and Japanese strategies are colliding over Taiwan.
Japan summons Chinese ambassador to protest radar incident
Diplomacy
Japan’s foreign ministry summons Ambassador Wu Jianghao to lodge a formal protest over the radar lock incidents, calling them dangerous and unacceptable. China’s embassy denies that fire-control radar was used and instead accuses Japan of endangering flight safety by approaching too closely, demanding that Tokyo restrain its frontline forces.
Japan accuses J-15s from Liaoning of locking fire-control radar on JASDF jets near Okinawa
Incident
Japan says that on December 6 Chinese J-15 fighters operating from the carrier Liaoning intermittently directed fire-control radar at JASDF F‑15s in two separate incidents over international waters southeast of Okinawa. Tokyo labels the actions dangerous and extremely regrettable and warns that radar illumination is tantamount to signaling a potential attack. China disputes the claims and accuses Japan of harassment.
Liaoning carrier group transits near Okinawa into the Pacific
Military Activity
Japan’s defense ministry tracks the Liaoning and three missile destroyers as they pass between Okinawa’s main island and Miyako Island into the Pacific, then turn northeast between Okinawa and Minamidaito. Carrier aircraft conduct intensive training throughout, with no reported incursions into Japanese territorial waters or airspace but sustained presence in Japan’s vicinity.
November 2025
China rolls out retaliatory measures against Japan over Taiwan stance
Economic Measure
China summons the Japanese ambassador in Beijing, issues a travel advisory against Japan, restricts cultural exchanges, and suspends steps toward resuming imports of Japanese seafood halted after the Fukushima water release. These measures are framed as responses to Takaichi’s Taiwan comments and add an economic dimension to the security crisis.
Chinese consul in Osaka posts threatening message about Japan’s leader
Incident
Chinese Consul General Xue Jian posts on X that there is no choice but to "cut off" the dirty neck that has lunged at China, widely understood as referring to Takaichi. Japan protests and demands disciplinary action; the post is later deleted, but Beijing does not publicly retract its substance. The rhetoric further poisons the atmosphere before the December radar incident.
New Japanese PM Takaichi links Taiwan attack to Japan’s right of collective self-defense
Public Statement
In Diet deliberations, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi states that a Chinese armed attack on Taiwan involving warships could constitute an existential crisis for Japan under its 2015 security legislation, legally enabling collective self‑defense. Chinese officials argue this challenges the One-China principle and interferes in China’s internal affairs, marking the start of a 2025 China–Japan diplomatic crisis.
April 2025
PLA launches multi-day drills and quasi-blockade around Taiwan
Military Activity
China begins large-scale joint exercises around Taiwan, including rehearsal blockade and strike missions. The drills deploy dozens of aircraft and more than 20 naval and coast guard ships, including the Shandong carrier group, in positions that also threaten Japanese and U.S. interests in the broader region.
July 2024
Japan defense white paper again calls China the greatest strategic challenge
Policy
In its 2024 defense white paper, Japan reiterates that China poses an unprecedented and greatest strategic challenge, citing repeated Chinese coast guard incursions near the Senkaku Islands and dangerous aerial maneuvers, including a JH‑7 bomber flying within about 30 meters of a Japanese surveillance plane over the East China Sea.
April 2023
Carrier Shandong drills near Okinawa and Taiwan during "United Sharp Sword"
Military Activity
China’s second aircraft carrier, Shandong, participates in large-scale exercises that simulate air and sea strikes on Taiwan from waters close to Okinawa. Japan’s defense ministry reports around 120 carrier aircraft sorties in 48 hours and tracks the group as it sails into the western Pacific and later back to the South China Sea, foreshadowing Liaoning’s 2025 operations.
December 2022
Japan adopts new security strategy labeling China its greatest strategic challenge
Policy
Japan approves a revised National Security Strategy, National Defense Strategy, and Defense Buildup Program that collectively describe China as an unprecedented and greatest strategic challenge, commit to acquiring counterstrike capabilities, and aim to raise defense spending to around 2% of GDP within five years. Beijing denounces the move as a departure from pacifism.
November 2013
China declares East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone
Policy
China announces an ADIZ over much of the East China Sea, including airspace above the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands and overlapping with existing Japanese and South Korean ADIZs. Japan, the U.S. and others criticize the move as destabilizing and continue flying military aircraft through the zone without complying with Chinese rules.
February 2013
Japan accuses Chinese frigate of locking weapons radar on JMSDF destroyer
Incident
Japan’s defense minister says a Chinese warship aimed fire-control radar at a JMSDF destroyer near the Senkaku Islands, and at a helicopter days earlier, calling it a very dangerous act. China denies using fire-control radar and accuses Tokyo of hyping the "China threat." The incident becomes an early template for later disputes about radar lock‑ons.
September 2012
Japan nationalizes three Senkaku Islands, angering Beijing
Policy
The Japanese government purchases three privately owned Senkaku Islands—Uotsuri, Minami‑Kojima and Kita‑Kojima—for ¥2.05 billion, bringing them under state ownership. China condemns the move as theft of its territory and steps up patrols around the islets, deepening the dispute.
September 2010
Chinese fishing trawler collides with Japan Coast Guard near Senkaku Islands
Incident
A Chinese trawler collides with two Japan Coast Guard patrol vessels in disputed waters near the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. Japan detains the captain, triggering a major diplomatic row and setting the tone for a new era of tense maritime confrontations between China and Japan.
Historical Context
3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.
1 of 3
2010–2013
2010–2013 Senkaku Escalation and the First China–Japan Radar Lock Crisis
From 2010 to 2013, the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands dispute moved from a relatively low‑level maritime issue to a central strategic flashpoint. The 2010 collision between a Chinese trawler and Japanese Coast Guard vessels led to the arrest of the Chinese captain and a major diplomatic spat. In 2012, Japan nationalized three of the islands by purchasing them from a private owner for ¥2.05 billion, prompting fierce Chinese protests and increased patrols. In early 2013, Japan accused Chinese frigates of locking fire-control radar on a JMSDF destroyer and helicopter near the islands, which China denied, calling Japan’s claims a smear. These events normalized a pattern of close encounters, protests, and dueling narratives that closely resembles today’s radar dispute.
Then
Despite intense rhetoric, neither side resorted to force. Diplomatic channels remained open, and both militaries adjusted to a higher operational tempo around the islands without formal rules of the road.
Now
The crises entrenched domestic narratives of threat on both sides, set precedents for selective radar use and denial, and paved the way for later steps such as China’s East China Sea ADIZ and Japan’s 2022 shift toward counterstrike capabilities.
Why this matters now
The 2013 radar lock incidents show that both China and Japan have experience walking back from the brink after dangerous encounters, but also that denials and propaganda can leave underlying risks unresolved. The 2025 Liaoning radar dispute is unfolding along similar lines, with Tokyo emphasizing danger and Beijing rejecting the facts, suggesting that without new mechanisms, history may repeat rather than rhyme.
2 of 3
2018–2024
2018 Japan–South Korea Radar Lock Dispute and Its 2024 Resolution
In 2018, Japan and South Korea clashed over an incident in which Tokyo claimed a South Korean warship had locked fire-control radar on a JMSDF patrol aircraft, a charge Seoul disputed. The dispute badly strained bilateral defense ties and cooperation with the United States. After years of tension, the two governments agreed in June 2024 to normalize defense exchanges and adopted measures—such as adherence to the Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea (CUES) and improved communications—to prevent recurrence, while effectively shelving the factual dispute.
Then
The 2018–2019 dispute led to mutual recriminations, suspended military exchanges, and complicated trilateral coordination with Washington.
Now
By 2024, both sides recognized that leaving the issue unresolved endangered broader strategic cooperation. Their agreement to focus on practical prevention rather than assigning blame offers a template for managing technically complex, politically charged radar incidents.
Why this matters now
The Japan–South Korea case illustrates how radar lock controversies can fester for years but eventually be addressed through technical protocols and confidence‑building rather than public adjudication. While China–Japan relations are more adversarial than Japan–South Korea ties, the 2024 settlement shows that even entrenched narratives can give way to pragmatic risk‑reduction—an option that may become attractive if close calls around Okinawa keep multiplying.
3 of 3
April 2001
2001 Hainan Island Incident: U.S.–China Aerial Collision and Diplomatic Climb-Down
On April 1, 2001, a U.S. Navy EP‑3E signals intelligence aircraft and a Chinese J‑8 fighter collided in mid‑air over the South China Sea near Hainan Island. The J‑8 broke apart and its pilot was lost, while the severely damaged EP‑3 made an emergency landing on Hainan without China’s permission. Chinese authorities detained the 24 U.S. crew members for 11 days, and the incident sparked a heated war of words between Washington and Beijing. The standoff ended after the U.S. delivered a carefully worded letter expressing sorrow for the loss of the pilot and for the aircraft’s unauthorized landing, allowing both sides to save face.
Then
The crew was eventually released and the aircraft returned to U.S. custody after being disassembled, but the episode exposed how quickly routine surveillance flights can escalate into international crises.
Now
The incident encouraged both countries to refine their intercept and surveillance practices, but close encounters and differing legal views on air and maritime operations have continued, resurfacing in later U.S.–China and now China–Japan tensions.
Why this matters now
The Hainan incident underscores the dangers of high‑risk intercepts and the importance of crisis communication and face‑saving diplomacy. While the U.S. and China ultimately de‑escalated, the political costs were high on both sides. For Japan and China, which have their own wartime history and domestic sensitivities, managing a similar forced landing or shootdown near Okinawa could be even harder, making preventive rules and hotlines particularly valuable.
