Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Force in Play

Seeking to defend Brazil's institutions against US pressure

Brazil refused to let two senior US diplomats into the country. The pair planned to spend four days in Brasília asking questions about whether Brazil's October election would be fair.

Updated Jul 26

Rule Changes

Opposes the designation

A company that pays a Brazilian gang for protection may now be breaking US law. On June 5, the US labeled two of Brazil's biggest criminal organizations, Comando Vermelho and the Primeiro Comando da Capital, as terrorist groups.

Updated Jun 5

Rule Changes

Negotiating with the US while preparing retaliatory tariffs

Brazil sells the United States about $40 billion in goods a year. A new US trade action could add 25% to the price of most of it.

Updated Jun 2

Rule Changes

Serving third term, began January 2023

Brazil cut Amazon deforestation by a third in the first six months of 2023, putting the world's largest tropical rainforest on track for its lowest annual clearing rate in years. The turnaround arrived fast: just months earlier, deforestation had been running at its highest levels in over a decade. The shift traces directly to a change in government and a rapid restoration of environmental enforcement that had been dismantled under the previous administration.

Updated May 29

Rule Changes

Supports agreement but did not attend signing ceremony

Negotiations between the EU and Mercosur began in 1999. Twenty-six years later, on January 17, 2026, representatives signed a comprehensive free trade agreement in Asunción, Paraguay—the same city where Mercosur itself was founded in 1991. The deal eliminates tariffs on more than 90% of bilateral trade and creates the world's largest free trade zone, covering over 700 million consumers and roughly a quarter of global GDP.

Updated May 21

Force in Play

In office since January 2023 (third term)

Brazil protected Argentina's embassy in Caracas for 14 months after Nicolás Maduro expelled Argentine diplomats in July 2024. That arrangement ended January 16, 2026, when Italy assumed custodianship. The shift was triggered by Brazil's opposition to the U.S. military operation that captured Maduro two weeks earlier, and accelerated by Argentine President Milei's sustained social media attacks on Brazilian President Lula.

Updated May 21

Force in Play

Warned that any U.S. armed intervention in Venezuela could trigger a humanitarian catastrophe, elevating regional diplomatic pressure against escalation.

Trump's Venezuela "blockade" threat is now backed by policy. Washington has added new Venezuela-linked sanctions and also targeted Iran's shadow-fleet network. Together, these expand the pool of already-sanctioned vessels that the U.S. Navy could board if they try to trade with Venezuela.

Updated May 15