Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Rule Changes

Supports agreement but did not attend signing ceremony

Negotiations between the EU and Mercosur began in 1999. Twenty-six years later, on January 17, 2026, representatives signed a comprehensive free trade agreement in Asunción, Paraguay—the same city where Mercosur itself was founded in 1991. The deal eliminates tariffs on more than 90% of bilateral trade and creates the world's largest free trade zone, covering over 700 million consumers and roughly a quarter of global GDP.

Updated Yesterday

Rule Changes

Serving third term; faces Flávio Bolsonaro in the October 25 runoff

Brazil's Amazon deforestation fell to its lowest level since satellite records began in 1988, the government announced on October 16, 2026. The 3,335 square kilometers cleared from August 2025 to July 2026 is 63% below the 9,001 square kilometers recorded in 2023.

Updated 2 days ago

Rule Changes

His campaign's complaint led the TSE to order equal treatment; Meta filed a compliance report on October 20 and the court has not publicly ruled

Meta told Brazil's Superior Electoral Court on October 20 that it had complied with an order to treat President Lula and challenger Flávio Bolsonaro equally before the October 25 runoff. Its nine-page filing listed 17 measures, including human review within two hours of any automated restriction on either campaign's ad accounts.

Updated 3 days ago

Money Moves

Unveiled aid measures on October 14 including tax forgiveness for micro-entrepreneurs; trails Bolsonaro 47.6% to 49.8% in the October 19 Atlas/Bloomberg poll

September's 0.82% monthly rise pushed Brazil's 12-month inflation to 4.58%, above the central bank's 4.5% ceiling. The Focus survey on October 19 held its 2026 forecast at 5.22%, ending a four-week run of increases, and raised the 2027 median to 4.32%.

Updated 3 days ago

Rule Changes

Trails narrowly in latest polls; campaigned in the Northeast after a large São Paulo rally; Senate passed his 40-hour week plan

Brazil's presidential runoff is a technical tie five days before the vote. Four polls released October 19 put Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of President Lula da Silva by 0.6 to 4 percentage points in valid votes. The margins were narrow enough that the race remained a technical tie in the closest surveys.

Updated 4 days ago

Rule Changes

Seeking a fourth non-consecutive term in October 25 runoff

Brazil's Senate voted 75-1 on October 14 to approve a constitutional amendment cutting the maximum legal workweek from 44 to 40 hours, ending the 6x1 schedule. The amendment goes to Congress for promulgation without presidential approval; days later, Finance Minister Dario Durigan said the government may create credit lines to help companies adapt.

Updated 5 days ago

Force in Play

Seeking to defend Brazil's institutions against US pressure

Brazil blocked two US envoys in July, then the US revoked the visa of Brazil's ambassador in August. By October, the US and Australia had suspended diplomatic operations in Brazil ahead of the election, citing security threats.

Updated Oct 16

Rule Changes

Signed provisional measure banning fixed-odds betting; faces re-election October 4

Brazil's betting sites went offline at midnight October 6, two days after the first-round election, ending a market Lula's government legalized in 2023. The withdrawal window closed with R$1.325 billion still in player accounts; banks return balances October 9-14, with state-owned Caixa handling anything left after that.

Updated Oct 14

Rule Changes

Opposes the designation

A company that pays a Brazilian gang for protection may now be breaking US law. On June 5, the US labeled two of Brazil's biggest criminal organizations, Comando Vermelho and the Primeiro Comando da Capital, as terrorist groups.

Updated Jun 5

Rule Changes

Negotiating with the US while preparing retaliatory tariffs

Brazil sells the United States about $40 billion in goods a year. A new US trade action could add 25% to the price of most of it.

Updated Jun 2

Force in Play

In office since January 2023 (third term)

Brazil protected Argentina's embassy in Caracas for 14 months after Nicolás Maduro expelled Argentine diplomats in July 2024. That arrangement ended January 16, 2026, when Italy assumed custodianship. The shift was triggered by Brazil's opposition to the U.S. military operation that captured Maduro two weeks earlier, and accelerated by Argentine President Milei's sustained social media attacks on Brazilian President Lula.

Updated May 21

Force in Play

Warned that any U.S. armed intervention in Venezuela could trigger a humanitarian catastrophe, elevating regional diplomatic pressure against escalation.

Trump's Venezuela "blockade" threat is now backed by policy. Washington has added new Venezuela-linked sanctions and also targeted Iran's shadow-fleet network. Together, these expand the pool of already-sanctioned vessels that the U.S. Navy could board if they try to trade with Venezuela.

Updated May 15