Brazil sells the United States about $40 billion in goods a year. A new US trade action could add 25% to the price of most of it.
The US Trade Representative ruled Tuesday that Brazil engages in six unfair trade practices, from blocking US ethanol to ignoring illegal deforestation. The action opens a path for tariffs that, unlike Trump's earlier Brazil duties, can survive a court challenge.
Why it matters
A 25% tariff on Brazilian imports would raise US prices on steel, chemicals, footwear, and machinery, costs importers and consumers ultimately pay.
12 events
Latest: July 15th, 2026
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July 2026
Statutory deadline for Brazilian action
LatestDeadline
Brazil's deadline to address USTR concerns. After this date, USTR can finalize and impose the proposed 25% tariff.
USTR public hearing on proposed 25% tariff
Hearing
USTR will hold a public hearing on the proposed tariff. Written comments are due by July 1.
June 2026
USTR finds Brazil engaged in unfair trade, proposes 25% tariff
TodayDetermination
USTR issues its Section 301 determination finding Brazil's practices unreasonable in six areas and proposes a 25% ad valorem tariff. Beef, coffee, aircraft parts, rare earths, and some produce are exempted.
May 2026
Lula meets Trump again as Section 301 nears conclusion
Diplomacy
Lula travels to Washington for a second presidential meeting with Trump. Both sides report progress on some issues but say substantial differences remain.
February 2026
Supreme Court strikes down IEEPA tariffs
Court Ruling
In a 6-3 ruling, the Supreme Court holds that IEEPA does not authorize the president to impose tariffs. Trump's emergency duties on Brazil are voided.
Trump replaces lost tariffs with Section 122 surcharge
Executive Action
The same day as the ruling, Trump imposes a 10% global surcharge under Section 122, later raised to 15%. Section 122 is capped at 150 days without congressional extension.
November 2025
Trump exempts coffee and beef from Brazil tariff
Executive Action
Trump issues an executive order exempting dozens of Brazilian food products, including coffee, beef, and tropical fruits, from the 40% emergency tariff.
October 2025
Lula meets Trump in Malaysia
Diplomacy
On the sidelines of a Kuala Lumpur summit, Lula and Trump meet for the first time as presidents. Both describe the meeting as constructive; a deal is reported close.
September 2025
USTR holds first public hearing on Brazil
Hearing
USTR convenes its first public hearing on the Brazil investigation. US industry groups testify, with ethanol, lumber, and tech firms among the loudest voices.
July 2025
USTR opens Section 301 investigation into Brazil
Investigation
USTR initiates a Section 301 case covering digital trade, preferential tariffs, anti-corruption enforcement, intellectual property, ethanol access, and illegal deforestation.
Trump threatens 50% tariff on Brazil over Bolsonaro prosecution
Statement
In a public letter to Lula, Trump threatens a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods, citing the criminal case against former president Jair Bolsonaro. Brazilian markets fall.
February 2025
Greer confirmed as US Trade Representative
Appointment
The Senate confirms Jamieson Greer as the 20th USTR. He returns to the agency after serving as Robert Lighthizer's chief of staff during Trump's first term.
Historical Context
3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.
1 of 3
July 2018 – January 2020
Section 301 tariffs on China (2018-2020)
USTR under Robert Lighthizer found China engaged in unfair tech-transfer and intellectual property practices and imposed Section 301 tariffs on roughly $250 billion of imports. China retaliated on US farm goods. The tariff war rolled through three rounds before the January 2020 Phase One trade deal.
Then
US importers paid the tariffs. China's retaliation collapsed US soybean exports. The federal government paid roughly $28 billion in farmer aid.
Now
Section 301 tariffs on China largely remained in place under Biden and have outlasted the Phase One deal. The case established Section 301 as a durable workaround to WTO discipline.
Why this matters now
Same statute, same lead negotiator (Greer was Lighthizer's chief of staff), same playbook. Brazil is the second major Section 301 target of the Trump era.
2 of 3
September 1985 – October 1989
Section 301 informatics case against Brazil (1985-1989)
Reagan opened a Section 301 case against Brazil's 'informatics' law, which reserved the domestic computer market for Brazilian firms. The case targeted import bans on PCs, semiconductors, and software. Reagan briefly imposed retaliatory tariffs in late 1988.
Then
Brazil agreed to open software imports and improve IP protection. The US suspended its retaliatory tariffs in October 1989.
Now
Brazil's protectionist informatics regime unwound through the 1990s. The case is the textbook example of a US-Brazil Section 301 dispute settling through bilateral compromise.
Why this matters now
Closest direct precedent: a Section 301 case against Brazil that the two sides eventually settled. The current dispute also blends digital, IP, and market-access claims.
3 of 3
March 2018 – October 2021
Section 232 steel tariffs and EU retaliation (2018-2021)
Trump's first administration imposed Section 232 'national security' steel and aluminum tariffs on the EU, Canada, and Mexico. The EU retaliated with tariffs on Harley-Davidson motorcycles, bourbon, and Levi's jeans.
Then
Tit-for-tat tariffs raised costs on industrial inputs. Harley-Davidson moved some production to Thailand. US bourbon exporters lost share in EU markets.
Now
The Biden administration replaced the tariffs with a tariff-rate quota in October 2021. The case showed that allied retaliation hits politically visible US products and that settlement often waits for a new administration.
Why this matters now
Brazil has signaled it will retaliate under its reciprocity law. The EU response is the template: targeted strikes on politically sensitive US exports rather than across-the-board hits.
