1
Houthis keep hitting Saudi oil, refinery strikes become routine
Possible
Resolves by Nov 9, 2026
Discussed by: Al Jazeera and Washington Post coverage of the widening Red Sea front
The Jazan strike is the start of a sustained campaign rather than a one-off. Tit-for-tat Saudi airstrikes in Yemen keep drawing Houthi drones and missiles toward Aramco facilities. Each side answers the last blow, and Saudi energy sites stay under regular threat.
2
Back-channel talks restore the lull, strikes stop
Possible
Resolves by Nov 9, 2026
Discussed by: Arab Center Washington DC analysis of Saudi-Houthi de-escalation
Riyadh has spent years trying to exit Yemen and protect its economy. Both sides step back through Omani or other mediation, halting cross-border strikes. Saudi oil facilities go untouched again as the informal truce is patched back together.
3
Saudi Arabia launches a major offensive inside Yemen
Unlikely
Resolves by End of 2026
Discussed by: ABC News reporting on Saudi-Houthi airstrike exchanges
Repeated hits on Aramco push Riyadh to abandon restraint. Saudi forces mount a sustained air campaign or ground push against Houthi strongholds, beyond the limited strikes on Hodeidah and Saada. Yemen tips back toward full-scale war.
4
Gulf strikes drive Brent crude back above $85
Uncertain
Resolves by End of 2026
Discussed by: Euronews and market analysts tracking the 2026 oil shock
Escalating attacks on Gulf energy sites and shipping spook oil traders. Damage or fear of damage to Saudi output pushes Brent crude, near $70 in July, back above $85 a barrel. Consumers feel it at the pump worldwide.
5
East-West pipeline stays shut, pushing more crude through the Strait of Hormuz
Possible
Resolves by End of 2026
Discussed by: Reuters and Al-Monitor coverage of the pipeline shutdown
Saudi Arabia shut the East-West pipeline after projectiles hit pump stations on September 10. The line is the kingdom's main export route that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. A prolonged shutdown pushes more Saudi crude through the strait, where shipping is already under threat in the 2026 Iran war.
6
Brent crude tops $100 as Gulf supply fears build
Possible
Resolves by Oct 31, 2026
Discussed by: NBC News and market analysts tracking the 2026 oil shock
Brent reached $98 after the September 8 attacks on Saudi energy sites. Another strike, or a prolonged pipeline outage, could push it past $100, the level reached at the war's peak. Higher crude prices show up at the pump worldwide.
7
Houthis close Bab el-Mandeb to Saudi shipping
Possible
Resolves by End of 2026
Discussed by: Reuters and Al-Monitor reporting on Houthi gains at Perim island and Mokha
With Perim island and the port of Mokha in their hands, the Houthis can threaten the 28-kilometre-wide Bab el-Mandeb strait, the Red Sea's southern gateway. Transit through the strait has already fallen about 60% since the Houthis began attacking vessels in late 2023. A full closure would force tankers to sail around Africa and push oil prices higher.
8
Iraqi militias launch fresh drone attacks on Saudi oil sites
Possible
Resolves by Oct 31, 2026
Discussed by: CNN, Al-Monitor and Seattle Times reporting that Baghdad and Riyadh traced the pipeline attack to Iraq
Iraq dismissed a military commander and opened an investigation after the September 10 pipeline attack. If Iran-backed Iraqi militias strike Saudi oil targets again, Riyadh may face pressure to respond inside Iraq. That would open a new front in the 2026 Iran war.
9
Iraqi militias ignore the Sept 30 disarmament deadline and strike Saudi oil again
Possible
Resolves by Oct 15, 2026
Discussed by: Associated Press reporting via The Seattle Times on Iraqi militia fallout
Iraq set a Sept 30 deadline for nonstate groups to disarm after the pipeline attack. Several powerful Iran-backed militias have already refused. If they hit Saudi territory again, Riyadh faces pressure to respond inside Iraq, opening a new front in the 2026 Iran war.
10
Saudi Arabia runs out of export stocks before the pipeline restarts
Possible
Resolves by Sep 20, 2026
Discussed by: Reuters, citing sources familiar with Saudi oil operations
Reuters reported September 13 that Saudi Arabia has stocks in ports for five to seven days to maintain oil exports. If the East-West pipeline stays shut past that window, exports fall by up to 4% of global supply and Brent pushes higher.
11
Yemen's government forces counterattack to retake Mokha
Possible
Resolves by Oct 31, 2026
Discussed by: AP reporting comments from Sultan al-Arada and a Yemeni military official
After Houthi forces seized Mokha and reached Perim island, Yemen's government said its forces are regrouping and will return to the Red Sea coast. A counteroffensive could draw Saudi airstrikes back into the fight near Bab el-Mandeb.
12
Saudi Arabia restarts the East-West pipeline before export stocks run dry
Possible
Resolves by Sep 20, 2026
Discussed by: Reuters, citing sources familiar with Saudi oil operations
Saudi Arabia has not disclosed how long repairs will take. Traders and buyers told Reuters the kingdom has five to seven days of export stocks at Yanbu. A restart inside that window would avoid the loss of up to 4% of global supply.
13
Houthis take Dhubab and tighten their grip on the Bab el-Mandeb coast
Possible
Resolves by Oct 15, 2026
Discussed by: NBC News and Reuters reporting on Houthi gains at Mocha, Perim island and Dhubab
Houthi forces have captured Mocha and Perim island and are advancing on Dhubab. Taking the town would give them a fuller grip on the coastline near the Bab el-Mandeb strait, where transit has already fallen about 60% since late 2023.
14
Gulf states deepen military involvement as Houthis press toward Bab el-Mandeb
Possible
Resolves by End of 2026
Discussed by: Reuters, reporting that the Houthi advance leaves Gulf states with an uncomfortable choice
With Houthi forces at Mocha, Perim island and the approach to Dhubab, Gulf states must decide whether to re-enter the Yemen fight more heavily or accept a Houthi foothold on the strait's coast. Either path carries risks for oil shipping and regional stability.
15
Hormuz shipping attacks escalate after cargo ship strike
Possible
Resolves by Oct 15, 2026
Discussed by: Reuters reporting on new attacks in Hormuz and Saudi Arabia
Iranian media reported a strike on an Iranian cargo ship near the Strait of Hormuz that killed one person on September 13. If Iran retaliates or the attacker strikes again, shipping through the world's most important oil chokepoint faces further disruption. Reuters reported that up to 4% of global oil supply could be jeopardised on top of barrels already lost to Hormuz traffic disruption.
16
East-West Pipeline Restarts Within Days
Possible
Resolves by Oct 1, 2026
Discussed by: US Energy Secretary Chris Wright; AGSI analysis of repair estimates
Wright said Sept 16 the line should be back online within days. Industry estimates range from an imminent partial restart to five to six weeks for complete repairs. A partial restart would let Aramco resume some loadings from inventories at Yanbu.
17
US Military Help for Saudi Arabia Expands
Possible
Resolves by Oct 31, 2026
Discussed by: Reuters, citing three sources familiar with the request
Three sources told Reuters the Saudi crown prince asked President Trump for US military help after the Houthi offensive. Direct US involvement would widen the 2026 Iran war and shift the balance on the Red Sea coast.
18
Houthi Strikes on Riyadh Become Routine
Possible
Resolves by Oct 31, 2026
Discussed by: BBC News reporting on the first Riyadh air raid alerts of the escalation
Riyadh sounded its first air raid alerts of the escalation on Sept 19, with explosions reported before the all-clear. Riyadh is Saudi Arabia's capital and economic center. Confirmed strikes on the city would be a new stage in the conflict.
