1
Congress ratifies the betting ban
Likely
Resolves by Jan 23, 2027
Discussed by: Reuters, Brazilian government officials
If Lula wins re-election, his coalition likely shepherds the provisional measure through Congress within 120 days. The ban becomes permanent, the 85 licenses are extinguished without compensation, and Desenrola 3.0's debt relief gives lawmakers a popular program to defend alongside the ban.
2
Betting ban lapses as Congress stalls
Possible
Resolves by Jan 23, 2027
Discussed by: Analysts cited by Reuters noting the race is tight
If Flavio Bolsonaro wins in October, his incoming government may decline to push the MP through Congress before it expires around January 23, 2027. The ban dissolves, licensed operators resume under Law 14.790, and a different administration writes a new regulatory framework.
3
Brazil's Supreme Court suspends the ban
Possible
Resolves by Dec 15, 2026
Discussed by: Industry lawyers, Valor Econômico
Operators who paid R$30 million each argue the no-compensation revocation violates constitutional protection of property and acquired rights. The Supremo Tribunal Federal grants an injunction suspending enforcement while the case proceeds, creating legal limbo during the congressional window.
4
Betting industry court challenge halts the ban
Possible
Resolves by Oct 6, 2026
Discussed by: theigaming.eu
The National Association of Games and Lotteries (ANJL) signaled it may challenge the ban in court. An injunction could suspend enforcement while the case proceeds. The ban would remain unresolved during the congressional approval window.
5
Congress narrows the ban to online casino games
Possible
Resolves by Nov 23, 2026
Discussed by: g3newswire, iGaming Times
Several of the 38 active amendments seek to keep licensed sports betting on final results, scores, and collective match statistics while banning online casino games and slots. The mixed committee's rapporteur may accept, modify, or reject these proposals when preparing the report on the measure.