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US finalizes Colorado River plan forcing steep water cuts on three states

US finalizes Colorado River plan forcing steep water cuts on three states

Rule Changes

Arizona, California and Nevada will give up about 1.25 million acre-feet a year as Lake Mead and Lake Powell sit near record lows

Yesterday: Interior signs final plan and Record of Decision

Overview

Updated Yesterday

Farmers and cities across the Southwest just learned how much less river water they will get. On August 22, the US Department of the Interior signed rules cutting Arizona, California and Nevada by about 1.25 million acre-feet a year, roughly 21% of their Colorado River supply. Arizona takes the deepest cut.

The river feeds about 40 million people. Its two biggest reservoirs, Lake Mead and Lake Powell, have dropped to near record lows. Seven states spent three years failing to agree on who should give up water, so the federal government wrote the rules itself. They take effect October 1.

Why it matters

Cities and farms from Phoenix to Southern California must now run on less river water, and future cuts could nearly double if the reservoirs keep falling.

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Key Indicators

21%
Lower Basin cut
Share of Colorado River supply Arizona, California and Nevada lose starting in 2027.
1.25M acre-feet
Annual water reduction
Combined yearly cut for the three Lower Basin states.
760K acre-feet
Arizona's cut
Arizona absorbs the largest reduction because its river rights are among the most junior.
40M
People served
Residents across seven states and Mexico who depend on the river.
~1,041 ft
Lake Mead elevation
Near the record low of 1,040.58 feet set in July 2022.

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People Involved

Organizations Involved

Timeline

November 1922 August 2026

7 events Latest: Yesterday
Tap a bar to jump to that date
  1. Interior signs final plan and Record of Decision

    Latest Rule Change

    Secretary Burgum makes the cuts binding, setting 2027-2028 rules and a 10-year framework through 2036. New operations begin October 1.

  2. Lake Mead and Lake Powell hit record lows

    Milestone

    Combined storage falls below any level seen since before Lake Powell began filling in the early 1960s.

  3. Federal plan released for public review

    Proposal

    Interior proposes concentrating cuts on the three Lower Basin states, drawing reactions from 'encouraged' to 'draconian.'

  4. First federal shortage declared

    Rule Change

    The government declares the river's first official shortage, triggering mandatory 2022 cuts for Arizona and Nevada.

  5. Drought Contingency Plan signed

    Agreement

    States agree to voluntary extra reductions to slow the reservoirs' decline as drought deepens across the basin.

  6. Interior adopts interim shortage guidelines

    Rule Change

    The states agree to tiered cuts tied to Lake Mead's level, mostly hitting Arizona and Nevada first. These rules expire at the end of 2026.

  7. States sign the Colorado River Compact

    Agreement

    Seven states split the river between an Upper and Lower Basin, each promised 7.5 million acre-feet a year. The flow estimates came from unusually wet years.

Historical Context

3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

November 1922

Colorado River Compact (1922)

Seven states divided the river at Lees Ferry, promising 7.5 million acre-feet a year to each basin. Negotiators relied on flow records from some of the wettest years ever measured, so they promised more water than the river reliably carries.

Then

The deal let the Southwest build dams, farms and cities on the assumption of abundant water.

Now

The over-allocation baked in a structural shortfall that every later drought has exposed.

Why this matters now

The 2026 cuts are the bill coming due on a river that was divided as if it held more water than it does.

May 2019

Drought Contingency Plan (2019)

Facing the threat of federal action, the seven states negotiated voluntary extra cuts to keep the reservoirs from crashing. They chose a shared deal over an imposed one, narrowly beating a federal deadline.

Then

The plan slowed the reservoirs' decline for a few years.

Now

It showed consensus was possible, a precedent this year's negotiators failed to repeat.

Why this matters now

In 2026 the states could not agree, so the outcome they avoided in 2019, federal imposition, is what they got.

August 2021

First federal shortage declaration (2021)

With Lake Mead at record lows, the government declared the river's first official shortage. Mandatory 2022 cuts hit Arizona hardest, reducing the Central Arizona Project supply to farms near Phoenix and Tucson.

Then

Arizona farmers fallowed fields as their junior water rights were cut first.

Now

It established that Washington would enforce cuts by reservoir level, not wait for a crisis vote.

Why this matters now

The 2026 plan extends the same logic, but on a much larger scale and across all three Lower Basin states.

Sources

(7)