Laura Fernández Wins Presidency Outright, Secures Legislative Majority for Security Reforms
February 3rd, 2026: Fernández Victory Speech Promises 'Deep Change'New here? Follow stories to track developments over time. Create a free account to get updates when stories you care about change.
Costa Rica abolished its army in 1949, building Latin America's most stable democracy on neutrality and social investment. On February 1, 2026, voters elected Laura Fernández Delgado of the Pueblo Soberano Party (PPSO) president with 48.3%—exceeding the 40% threshold to win outright and avoid a runoff—while granting her party 31 of 57 legislative seats, enabling simple-majority reforms amid drug cartel violence that tripled homicides since 2019[1][2][3].
Fernández, outgoing President Rodrigo Chaves's former chief of staff, campaigned on a Bukele-style security crackdown including a mega-prison and state of emergency in gang areas. Chaves's 58% approval and fragmented opposition—Álvaro Ramos at 33.4%—ensured continuity despite concerns over institutional erosion. With 69-70% turnout, her victory signals a rightward realignment, though constitutional changes require opposition deals[1][3][4].
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Fictional AI pastiche — not real quote.
"They gave up their army and built schools instead, and now they want to build a prison so large it needs its own name. I suppose it's progress of a sort—at least a cage is more honest about what it contains than a parliament."
Fictional AI pastiche — not real quote.
"How swiftly democracies learn to worship the jailer when crime rises! Costa Rica spent seventy years proving that butter surpasses guns, yet now queues up to embrace the cell-block philosophy—as if El Salvador's approach were anything more than old tyranny wearing the mask of public safety."
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Costa Rica's independent electoral authority, long regarded as a cornerstone of the country's stable democracy.
Costa Rica's oldest political party, founded by the leader who abolished the army but now associated with establishment politics and past corruption.
President-elect pledges mega-prison, state of emergency, and 'third republic'; opposition warns of authoritarian risks while accepting defeat.
Supreme Electoral Tribunal certified 48.3% for Fernández, 33.4% for Ramos; PPSO wins 31 legislative seats. Turnout reached 69.1%, highest in years.
Marco Rubio praised the victory and expressed confidence in advancing U.S.-Costa Rica priorities including combating narco-trafficking, curbing illegal immigration, cybersecurity, and economic ties.
Over 3.7 million Costa Ricans vote for president, two vice presidents, and all 57 legislative seats. If no candidate reaches 40%, a runoff follows on April 5.
The legislature voted 35-21 to strip immunity—three votes short of the required 38-vote supermajority.
The electoral tribunal formally requested immunity removal, citing 15 admissible complaints of unwarranted electoral interference.
The Pueblo Soberano Party officially nominated Fernández, Chaves's former chief of staff, as its presidential candidate.
The TSE ruled Chaves had illegitimately used his office to favor his party, barring any campaign statements or actions.
Chaves signed a reform allowing extradition of Costa Rican nationals accused of drug trafficking—previously prohibited.
Costa Rica recorded 907 murders—the highest in national history—with 70% linked to drug trafficking.
The anti-establishment economist defeated José María Figueres with 52.9% in the second round, despite his party holding only 10 of 57 legislative seats.
Costa Rica's murder rate stood at 11.2 per 100,000—already elevated but about to accelerate as cartels expanded operations.
President José Figueres symbolically smashed a wall of the Bellavista Barracks and declared the military dissolved, redirecting spending to education and health.
Discussed by: University of Costa Rica pollsters, Americas Quarterly analysts
Fernández exceeds 40% and avoids a runoff—something no candidate has achieved since 2014. She appoints Chaves to her cabinet as promised and pursues the Bukele-inspired security agenda. The ruling party likely gains legislative seats but remains short of a majority, requiring coalition-building. Opposition fracturing and the undecided vote breaking toward continuity make this the baseline expectation.
Discussed by: AS/COA poll tracker, Control Risks analysts
With 26% of voters undecided, Fernández dips below 40% and faces either Ramos or a surprise second-place finisher in an April runoff. A consolidated opposition vote could shift momentum. The two-month campaign would intensify scrutiny of her Bukele-style proposals and Chaves association. Historical precedent favors runoffs in Costa Rica, though no recent frontrunner has polled this high.
Discussed by: InSight Crime, Atlantic Council Latin America analysts
The structural drivers—geography, cartel alliances, port access, urban poverty—persist whoever wins. Criminal organizations have grown tenfold in a decade; the Bukele model may not translate to a country with stronger institutions and no history of mass incarceration. Violence could plateau or continue rising even as the new government claims a security mandate.
Discussed by: Democratic Erosion Project, International Crisis Group
A Fernández victory with Chaves in her cabinet extends the confrontational approach to courts and independent agencies. The TSE-Chaves conflict becomes a template for future executive-judiciary clashes. Costa Rica's 75-year tradition of institutional stability—built on military abolition and neutral arbitration—faces its most sustained pressure since democratization.
After a brief civil war over disputed election results, victorious leader José Figueres smashed a wall of the army barracks with a sledgehammer and declared the military dissolved. The 1949 constitution formalized the abolition, redirecting defense spending to education and healthcare.
The barracks became the National Museum. Military coups—common elsewhere in Latin America—became constitutionally impossible.
Costa Rica developed the region's strongest democratic institutions, highest literacy rates, and most extensive social safety net. It became a model for demilitarization worldwide.
Today's security crisis tests whether institutions built for a demilitarized state can handle transnational organized crime. Fernández's Bukele-inspired approach represents a philosophical departure from the 1949 settlement.
After 87 gang members were killed in weekend massacres, President Nayib Bukele declared a state of emergency suspending constitutional rights. Over 80,000 people have been arrested. The homicide rate dropped from 53 per 100,000 in 2018 to under 3 in 2023.
El Salvador became Latin America's safest country by murder rate. Bukele's approval exceeded 85%.
Human rights organizations documented widespread arbitrary detention. The model inspired candidates across Latin America but faces questions about replicability in larger countries with stronger cartels.
Fernández explicitly cites Bukele as inspiration. Her mega-prison proposal mirrors El Salvador's CECOT facility. But Costa Rica's criminal organizations are cartel-linked, not street gangs—a fundamentally different adversary.
José María Figueres—son of the man who abolished the army—led the first round with 27% but lost the runoff to World Bank economist Rodrigo Chaves, who captured anti-establishment anger despite sexual harassment findings from his previous employer. Turnout hit 60-year lows.
Chaves took office with only 10 of 57 legislative seats, forcing constant negotiation with opposition parties.
Traditional parties collapsed; voter detachment deepened. Chaves's confrontational style normalized institutional conflict.
The 2026 election tests whether Chaves's populist realignment was a one-term anomaly or a permanent shift. Fernández represents continuity; fragmented opposition suggests the old party system has not recovered.