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US coal generation falls 11% despite Trump revival push

US coal generation falls 11% despite Trump revival push

Rule Changes

A court struck down one coal rescue order and the EPA gutted pollution rules, yet cheaper gas and renewables keep winning the fuel's long slide

September 22nd, 2026: Tri-State files third petition in Craig case

Overview

Updated Sep 29

Coal-fired electricity generation fell 11% in the first half of 2026, per the Financial Times, even as the Trump administration issued more than 20 emergency orders to keep aging plants running. In September a federal appeals court struck down the order keeping Michigan's Campbell plant open, ruling the Department of Energy overstepped its authority; days later the agency ordered plants in Indiana and Washington state to stay running.

Ratepayers carry the costs. Keeping Campbell open cost Consumers Energy $259 million net through June 30, after $239 million in market revenues; keeping Colorado's Craig Unit 1 open has added more than $40 million. The EPA also repealed greenhouse gas limits on power plants, but cheaper gas and renewables keep taking coal's market share.

Why it matters

Ratepayers are paying hundreds of millions to keep uneconomic coal plants running, with no sign the fuel can compete against cheaper gas and renewables.

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Key Indicators

11%
Decline in coal-fired generation, first half of 2026 vs. same period 2025
Coal generated 323 terawatt-hours in H1 2026, down from roughly 363 TWh a year earlier.
386 MMst
Projected 2026 coal consumption in the electric power sector
EIA forecasts an 8% annual decline, with further falls expected through 2027.
$259M
Net cost of keeping Michigan's Campbell plant open
Consumers Energy's cost through June 30, after $239 million in market revenues. Keeping Colorado's Craig Unit 1 open added $40+ million, per Colorado Public Radio.
57 GW
Coal power capacity retired under Trump's two terms
Exceeds the 48 GW retired under Obama's two full terms, per Carbon Brief analysis.
323 TWh
Coal generation, first half of 2026
Natural gas generated 767 TWh in the same period — gas produces over twice as much electricity as coal.

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People Involved

Organizations Involved

Timeline

January 2025 September 2026

14 events Latest: September 22nd, 2026 · 2 weeks ago Showing 8 of 14
Tap a bar to jump to that date
  1. DOE orders Indiana coal plants to stay open

    Regulatory

    Wright ordered units at Indiana's R.M. Schahfer and F.B. Culley plants to remain available through Dec. 18, a week after the court struck down the Campbell order. Owner NIPSCO said both units were offline for inspections and maintenance.

  2. EPA repeals power plant emission limits

    Regulatory

    The Environmental Protection Agency, under Administrator Lee Zeldin, repealed greenhouse gas limits on fossil fuel power plants, removing Biden-era rules that required existing coal and new gas plants to cut carbon dioxide from the 2030s. Zeldin called it the largest deregulatory action of the power sector in history.

  3. FT: coal generation falls 11% in first half of 2026

    Report

    Cheaper power sources including natural gas grow despite federal rescue push.

  4. DOE orders Washington coal unit open the same day as court ruling

    Regulatory

    Energy Secretary Chris Wright ordered TransAlta to keep the 700-megawatt Unit 2 at Washington state's Centralia station available from Sept. 13 through Dec. 11, using the same emergency authority the court just limited.

  5. CPR details Craig plant costs

    Report

    Xcel spent $4M+ on its 10% share; total could exceed $40M.

  6. Forbes: gas stays dominant, coal keeps slipping

    Analysis

    EIA projects gas gaining through 2027 while coal declines.

  7. Trump announces coal support measures

    Policy

    New White House actions aim to boost coal demand.

  8. DOE orders Craig Unit 1 to stay open

    Regulatory

    Emergency order blocks retirement one day before scheduled closure.

  9. Reuters reports no new coal plants under construction

    Analysis

    Utilities identify cheaper gas and renewables as faster alternatives.

  10. Trump begins second term with coal revival priority

    Policy

    Administration makes coal central to energy dominance agenda.

Scenarios

1

EIA forecasts confirm coal's slide continues through 2027

Likely Resolves by End of 2026

Discussed by: Energy Information Administration, Forbes, Industrial Info Resources

The EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook projects coal consumption falling to 386 million short tons in 2026 and 376.5 million in 2027. Emergency orders may slow retirements, but gas prices remain low enough that utilities burn coal only at the margin. The December 2026 STEO update would confirm whether federal intervention moved the 2027 numbers.

2

Court overturns DOE emergency orders in consolidated case

Uncertain Resolves by Q2 2027

Discussed by: Colorado utilities, Sierra Club, Environmental Defense Fund

The D.C. Circuit consolidated lawsuits from Tri-State, Platte River, Colorado state officials, and environmental groups challenging the emergency orders. Xcel has intervened. If the court rules the DOE exceeded its authority, plants like Craig Unit 1 could finally retire — lifting hundreds of millions in ratepayer costs.

3

Emergency orders survive, coal plants limp to 2028

Possible Resolves by End of 2027

Discussed by: AP News, Enverus energy analysis

If the courts uphold DOE's emergency authority, coal plants slated for closure may operate through the end of Trump's term. Enverus notes no further coal plant closings may occur before Trump leaves office. But the Craig example shows forced-open plants can run at tiny capacity factors while costs mount — keeping the fuel alive in name while losing market share to gas and renewables.

4

Court applies Campbell ruling to Craig Unit 1, plant retires

Likely Resolves by Q1 2027

Discussed by: Tri-State Generation, Platte River Power Authority, D.C. Circuit judges

The D.C. Circuit ruled in September that states bear responsibility for planning and averting grid reliability risks, and that DOE overstepped its authority under the Federal Power Act in keeping Michigan's Campbell plant open. Tri-State's appeal over Craig Unit 1 was paused 60 days past the Campbell ruling, and the utilities filed a third petition on Sept. 22. If the court applies the same reasoning, Craig retires and ratepayer costs stop mounting.

Historical Context

2 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

1975–1985

US steel industry decline and tariff protections (1970s–1980s)

US steelmakers faced decades of declining competitiveness against cheaper foreign producers. Presidents from both parties imposed tariffs, quotas, and bailouts — the trigger-price mechanism under Carter, voluntary restraint agreements under Reagan — to protect domestic mills.

Then

Some plants survived and jobs were preserved temporarily, but steel employment fell from roughly 450,000 in 1979 to about 170,000 by 1985.

Now

Protectionist measures could not reverse the underlying economics. The industry modernized with vastly fewer workers, and imports remained a permanent fixture.

Why this matters now

Like steel, coal's problem is economic, not political. Government orders can delay closures, but they cannot make an uneconomic fuel competitive against cheaper alternatives — consumers absorb the cost either way.

1980

Carter-era synthesis program (1980)

After the 1979 oil shock, President Carter pushed a $20 billion federal program to develop synthetic fuels from coal and shale. The government guaranteed purchases and subsidized plants in hopes of reducing oil imports.

Then

The program spent billions before oil prices collapsed in the mid-1980s, and most projects were abandoned as uneconomic.

Now

The Synthesis Corporation was defunded in 1985. It became a case study in government picking energy winners against market signals.

Why this matters now

The same dynamic plays out today: Washington betting on a fuel that cheaper alternatives keep undercutting. Market prices, not policy mandates, ultimately decide the outcome.

Sources

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