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US coal generation falls 11% despite Trump revival push

US coal generation falls 11% despite Trump revival push

Rule Changes

Cheaper gas and renewables keep winning as federal emergency orders fail to halt the fuel's long slide

Today: FT: coal generation falls 11% in first half of 2026

Overview

Updated 1 hour ago

Coal-fired electricity generation fell 11% in the first half of 2026, according to the Financial Times — even as President Donald Trump's administration issued more than 20 emergency orders to keep aging coal plants running. The orders forced plants slated for retirement to stay open, but the fuel still lost ground to cheaper natural gas and surging wind and solar.

The costs of the intervention are landing on ratepayers. Emergency orders through mid-May added more than $300 million in extra costs, per the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, while the plants they saved often produced little power. Coal now generates roughly 25% less electricity than natural gas, which remains the country's dominant power source by a wide margin.

Why it matters

Ratepayers are paying hundreds of millions to keep uneconomic coal plants running, with no sign the fuel can compete against cheaper gas and renewables.

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Key Indicators

11%
Decline in coal-fired generation, first half of 2026 vs. same period 2025
Coal generated 323 terawatt-hours in H1 2026, down from roughly 363 TWh a year earlier.
386 MMst
Projected 2026 coal consumption in the electric power sector
EIA forecasts an 8% annual decline, with further falls expected through 2027.
$300M+
Extra costs from DOE emergency orders through mid-May 2026
Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis estimate passed through to ratepayers.
57 GW
Coal power capacity retired under Trump's two terms
Exceeds the 48 GW retired under Obama's two full terms, per Carbon Brief analysis.
323 TWh
Coal generation, first half of 2026
Natural gas generated 767 TWh in the same period — coal now lags gas by more than double.

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People Involved

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Timeline

January 2025 September 2026

9 events Latest: Today
Tap a bar to jump to that date
  1. FT: coal generation falls 11% in first half of 2026

    Today Report

    Cheaper power sources including natural gas grow despite federal rescue push.

  2. CPR details Craig plant costs

    Report

    Xcel spent $4M+ on its 10% share; total could exceed $40M.

  3. Forbes: gas stays dominant, coal keeps slipping

    Analysis

    EIA projects gas gaining through 2027 while coal declines.

  4. Trump announces coal support measures

    Policy

    New White House actions aim to boost coal demand.

  5. DOE orders Craig Unit 1 to stay open

    Regulatory

    Emergency order blocks retirement one day before scheduled closure.

  6. Reuters reports no new coal plants under construction

    Analysis

    Utilities identify cheaper gas and renewables as faster alternatives.

  7. Trump begins second term with coal revival priority

    Policy

    Administration makes coal central to energy dominance agenda.

Historical Context

2 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

1975–1985

US steel industry decline and tariff protections (1970s–1980s)

US steelmakers faced decades of declining competitiveness against cheaper foreign producers. Presidents from both parties imposed tariffs, quotas, and bailouts — the trigger-price mechanism under Carter, voluntary restraint agreements under Reagan — to protect domestic mills.

Then

Some plants survived and jobs were preserved temporarily, but steel employment fell from roughly 450,000 in 1979 to about 170,000 by 1985.

Now

Protectionist measures could not reverse the underlying economics. The industry modernized with vastly fewer workers, and imports remained a permanent fixture.

Why this matters now

Like steel, coal's problem is economic, not political. Government orders can delay closures, but they cannot make an uneconomic fuel competitive against cheaper alternatives — consumers absorb the cost either way.

1980

Carter-era synthesis program (1980)

After the 1979 oil shock, President Carter pushed a $20 billion federal program to develop synthetic fuels from coal and shale. The government guaranteed purchases and subsidized plants in hopes of reducing oil imports.

Then

The program spent billions before oil prices collapsed in the mid-1980s, and most projects were abandoned as uneconomic.

Now

The Synthesis Corporation was defunded in 1985. It became a case study in government picking energy winners against market signals.

Why this matters now

The same dynamic plays out today: Washington betting on a fuel that cheaper alternatives keep undercutting. Market prices, not policy mandates, ultimately decide the outcome.

Sources

(9)