Renewables overtake coal in the reshaping of American electricity

Overview

Updated May 31

For most of modern American history, coal generated the majority of the nation's electricity — roughly half of every kilowatt-hour consumed from the 1950s through the 2000s. In 2022, renewable sources surpassed coal-fired generation on an annual basis for the first time. By 2023, renewables produced about 22% of U.S. electricity while coal had fallen to 16%, a gap that is accelerating year over year.

Two things displaced coal. Cheap natural gas from the shale fracking boom, which began around 2008, undercut coal on price and grabbed the largest share of the generation mix at roughly 43%. Wind and solar, boosted by falling technology costs and federal tax credits, grew fast enough to leapfrog coal's shrinking remainder.

Coal went from generating nearly half the country's power in 2007 to less than one-sixth in 2023.

Why it matters

Coal powered American electricity for a century. Today, wind, solar, and hydro produce more power than coal.

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Key Indicators

~49%

Coal's peak share of U.S. electricity (2007)

Coal generated nearly half of all U.S. electricity at its peak, a level sustained for decades.

16%

Coal's share in 2023

Coal's share fell by two-thirds in just 16 years, the steepest decline of any major fuel source.

22%

Renewables' share in 2023

Wind, solar, hydro, biomass, and geothermal combined to surpass coal by six percentage points.

43%

Natural gas share in 2023

Natural gas is the dominant electricity fuel, having overtaken coal in 2016.

318 GW → ~170 GW

Coal-fired generating capacity (2011–2023)

Nearly half of U.S. coal capacity has retired since peaking in 2011.

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People Involved

Jennifer Granholm

U.S. Secretary of Energy (2021–2025)

Oversaw implementation of Inflation Reduction Act energy provisions

Organizations Involved

U.S. Energy Information Administration

Federal statistical agency

Primary source of U.S. electricity generation data

The independent statistical arm of the Department of Energy that collects and publishes data on U.S. energy production, consumption, and prices.

Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA)

Industry Trade Group

Leading advocate for U.S. solar deployment

The national trade association for the U.S. solar energy industry, representing manufacturers, installers, and developers.

Timeline

January 2007 October 2023

10 events Latest: October 16th, 2023 · 3 years ago

Tap a bar to jump to that date

October 2023
EIA reports renewables firmly ahead of coal in U.S. generation
Latest Analysis

The Energy Information Administration publishes updated analysis showing renewables generating about 22% of U.S. electricity compared to coal's 16%, with the gap widening as coal retirements accelerate.
October 16th, 2023
February 2023
Renewables begin 121-day streak outpacing coal
Milestone

Renewables surpass coal in daily generation and maintain the lead for 121 consecutive days through June 4, demonstrating the durability of the crossover.
February 4th, 2023
December 2022
Renewables surpass coal on an annual basis for the first time
Milestone

For full-year 2022, renewable sources generate more electricity than coal in the U.S. electric power sector for the first time ever. Coal's share falls to 20%; renewables reach 21%.
December 31st, 2022
August 2022
Inflation Reduction Act signed into law
Policy

President Biden signs the largest U.S. climate investment in history, allocating $369 billion for energy and climate programs including 10-year extensions of solar and wind tax credits.
August 16th, 2022
April 2019
Renewables briefly surpass coal in monthly generation
Milestone

In April 2019, U.S. electricity generation from renewables exceeds coal for the first time in a single month, driven by strong spring hydro and wind output.
April 1st, 2019
January 2016
Natural gas overtakes coal as top U.S. electricity fuel
Milestone

For the first time on an annual basis, natural gas generates more U.S. electricity than coal, ending coal's decades-long reign as the dominant fuel.
January 1st, 2016
April 2012
Coal generation drops 21% in a single quarter
Market Shift

In the first quarter of 2012, coal-fired generation falls sharply as cheap natural gas floods the market, accelerating plant retirements.
April 1st, 2012
January 2011
U.S. coal-fired generating capacity peaks at 318 gigawatts
Milestone

Coal capacity reaches its all-time high. From this point forward, retirements consistently outpace new builds.
January 1st, 2011
January 2008
Shale gas boom begins reshaping the fuel mix
Market Shift

Hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling unlock vast natural gas reserves, crashing gas prices and making gas-fired plants cheaper to run than coal.
January 1st, 2008
January 2007
Coal generation peaks at 2.02 billion megawatt-hours
Milestone

Coal-fired power plants generate about 49% of all U.S. electricity, the highest absolute output the fuel will ever reach. Coal consumption hits 1.128 billion short tons.
January 1st, 2007

Historical Context

3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

2016

Natural gas overtakes coal as top U.S. fuel (2016)

Natural gas surpassed coal as the largest single source of U.S. electricity generation for the first time, driven by a decade of plummeting gas prices from the shale revolution. The shift happened without any government mandate — market economics alone made gas cheaper to burn than coal in most regions.

Then

Coal plant retirements accelerated as utilities found it uneconomic to maintain aging coal plants against cheap gas competition.

Now

The gas-for-coal substitution cut U.S. power-sector carbon emissions significantly, even as total electricity demand held roughly steady. It also established the precedent that fuel transitions can happen quickly when economics align.

Why this matters now

The 2016 gas-coal crossover set the stage for the renewable-coal crossover. Coal didn't lose to renewables directly — it first lost to gas, which shrank coal's share enough that renewables could leapfrog it. Understanding this two-step displacement is essential to grasping why coal's decline has been so rapid.

2018–present

Germany's coal phase-out debate (2018–present)

Germany convened a coal commission in 2018 and legislated a coal phase-out by 2038, later accelerated to 2030 in some proposals. Despite strong renewable growth, Germany struggled with the transition because it simultaneously decided to close its nuclear plants, temporarily increasing reliance on coal during the 2022 European energy crisis.

Then

Germany briefly reopened mothballed coal plants in 2022 when Russian gas supplies were cut, highlighting the risks of retiring baseload capacity too quickly.

Now

Coal-fired electricity in Germany fell by nearly two-thirds from 2014 to 2024, but the path was rockier than the UK's, demonstrating that energy transitions depend heavily on what replaces coal, not just the decision to close plants.

Why this matters now

Germany's experience illustrates the tension the U.S. faces: retiring coal is straightforward when cheap gas and growing renewables fill the gap, but demand surges or supply disruptions can complicate the timeline. The U.S. benefits from abundant domestic gas, which Germany lacks.

September 2024

United Kingdom closes its last coal power plant (2024)

The Ratcliffe-on-Soar power station in Nottinghamshire shut down, making the United Kingdom the first major economy to fully exit coal power. Britain had been burning coal for electricity for nearly 150 years. At its peak in the 1980s, coal generated roughly 70% of British electricity.

Then

The UK eliminated coal from its grid without reliability disruptions, relying on a mix of natural gas, wind, and nuclear to fill the gap.

Now

The UK's coal exit became a reference case for other industrialized nations, demonstrating that a wealthy economy can retire its entire coal fleet within a generation.

Why this matters now

The U.S. is on a similar trajectory but roughly a decade behind. The UK example shows what full coal exit looks like in practice and suggests the U.S. shift is unlikely to reverse, even though America's larger and more geographically diverse grid makes the timeline longer.