Overview
For the first time since factories began burning coal in the 1800s, renewable energy generated more electricity than coal in the first half of 2025. Solar and wind grew so fast they met all global electricity demand growth—meaning fossil fuel generation actually fell. The crossover happened years ahead of what experts predicted just five years ago.
This isn't a temporary blip. Solar installations are breaking records every quarter, driven by economics, not subsidies. China is installing more renewable capacity than the rest of the world combined. The question now isn't whether coal will decline, but how fast—and whether natural gas becomes the next domino or a lingering transition fuel that slows the path to net zero.
Key Indicators
People Involved
Organizations Involved
Independent climate and energy think tank focused on accelerating the global electricity transition.
Paris-based autonomous intergovernmental organization providing policy recommendations and analysis on the global energy sector.
Timeline
-
Renewables Officially Surpass Coal Globally
MilestoneEmber analysis confirms renewables generated 34.3% of global electricity in H1 2025, overtaking coal's 33.1%.
-
Solar Becomes EU's Largest Power Source
MilestoneSolar overtakes all other generation sources in European Union for first time.
-
China Installs 360 GW Wind and Solar
InfrastructureChina adds more renewable capacity than rest of world combined, reaching 2030 target six years early.
-
COP28: 120 Countries Pledge to Triple Renewables
PolicyDubai climate summit produces commitment to triple renewable capacity to 11,000 GW by 2030.
-
Coal Peaks at 8.5 Billion Tonnes
IndustryCoal demand reaches new record high, but IEA says this is likely the peak before decline begins.
-
Coal Demand Hits Record High
IndustryGlobal coal consumption reaches all-time peak of 8.4 billion tonnes as economy rebounds from pandemic.
-
IEA Predicts Renewables to Overtake Coal by 2025
ForecastIEA forecasts renewables will become largest electricity source globally by 2025, meeting 99% of demand growth.
-
IEA Declares Solar Cheapest Electricity Ever
AnalysisInternational Energy Agency announces solar is now cheapest source of electricity in history, projecting massive deployment.
-
Paris Agreement Adopted
Policy195 countries commit to limiting global warming to well below 2°C, spurring renewable energy investments worldwide.
Scenarios
Accelerated Transition: Coal Generation Halves by 2030
Discussed by: IEA, Ember, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Solar and wind continue exponential growth driven by economics. Battery storage solves intermittency at scale as costs keep falling. China's massive manufacturing capacity floods global markets with cheap panels and turbines. Coal plants retire faster than expected as they become uneconomical even in developing nations. Natural gas plateaus as it fills reliability gaps but can't compete with renewables plus storage. By 2030, coal generates less than 20% of global electricity, down from 33% today. This pathway aligns with limiting warming to 1.5°C.
Natural Gas Bridge: Fossil Fuels Hold 40% Through 2030
Discussed by: BP, ExxonMobil, Resources for the Future
Renewable growth continues but grid reliability concerns slow coal retirements. Natural gas fills the gap as a "bridge fuel," with LNG capacity expanding 45% by 2030. Fossil fuel companies invest minimally in renewables while governments maintain subsidies for gas infrastructure. Developing nations build new gas plants citing energy poverty. Coal declines to 25% of generation but gas rises to 25%, keeping combined fossil fuel share around 50%. This scenario misses Paris Agreement targets and locks in decades of emissions.
Policy Backlash: Transition Stalls at 40% Renewables
Discussed by: McKinsey, political risk analysts
Political resistance to grid upgrades and industrial policy shifts slows renewable deployment. Fossil fuel subsidies continue despite G7 pledges. Grid bottlenecks prevent new solar and wind from connecting. Public backlash over electricity prices or reliability leads some countries to extend coal plant lifespans. China's domestic slowdown reduces clean energy manufacturing capacity. Renewables plateau at 40% of generation by 2030 while coal stabilizes around 28%. Climate goals become unreachable without major course correction in 2030s.
Breakthrough Convergence: Renewables Hit 60% by 2030
Discussed by: RMI, Carbon Tracker, Science journal
Multiple breakthroughs accelerate transition: solid-state batteries achieve commercial scale, green hydrogen becomes cost-competitive for industry, and AI optimizes grid management. China and U.S. compete on clean energy manufacturing, driving costs below all projections. India and Southeast Asia leapfrog coal entirely with distributed solar plus storage. Fossil fuel companies pivot aggressively as stranded asset risks materialize. By 2030, renewables generate 60% of global electricity and coal drops to 15%. This scenario keeps 1.5°C within reach.
Historical Context
Coal Powers the Industrial Revolution (1760-1850)
1760-1850What Happened
Britain led the world's industrialization by harnessing coal energy, scaling production from 5.2 million tonnes in 1750 to 62.5 million tonnes by 1850—a twelve-fold increase. Coal powered steam engines, heated factories, and eventually generated electricity. By 1900, coal accounted for 95% of Britain's energy consumption.
Outcome
Short term: Britain became the world's dominant economic and military power through industrial supremacy.
Long term: Coal-fired industrialization spread globally, creating modern civilization while setting up the climate crisis we face today.
Why It's Relevant
The 2025 coal-to-renewables flip reverses 265 years of energy history—the first time since the Industrial Revolution that a cleaner source has overtaken coal.
Denmark's Renewable Energy Transformation (1970s-2023)
1970-2023What Happened
After the 1973 oil crisis, Denmark committed to energy independence through renewables. Starting with wind power in the 1970s, the country built community-owned turbines and implemented policies requiring local ownership stakes in projects. By 2022, renewables supplied 81% of Denmark's electricity, with wind alone providing 53.4%.
Outcome
Short term: Denmark achieved energy security while building a global wind industry exporting technology worldwide.
Long term: Power sector emissions fell 76% from 1990 to 2020. Denmark targets 100% renewable electricity by 2026.
Why It's Relevant
Denmark proves a modern economy can run almost entirely on renewables—providing a roadmap others are now following at global scale.
Natural Gas Displaces Coal in U.S. (2000-2020)
2000-2020What Happened
Fracking unlocked massive U.S. natural gas reserves, making it cheaper than coal. Gas generation grew from 16% of U.S. electricity in 2000 to 40% by 2020, while coal collapsed from 52% to 19%. Utilities closed hundreds of coal plants, citing economics rather than environmental policy.
Outcome
Short term: U.S. power sector emissions fell 33% from peak levels as cleaner-burning gas replaced coal.
Long term: Gas infrastructure locked in decades of fossil fuel dependence, slowing renewable deployment and missing climate targets.
Why It's Relevant
Shows fuel transitions happen fast when economics shift—but also how a 'bridge fuel' can become a long-term obstacle if renewables don't scale quickly enough.