In 2004, it took the world an entire year to install one gigawatt of solar power. By 2025, that amount went online every single day. Science Magazine named this accelerating surge in renewable energy its 2025 Breakthrough of the Year, recognizing the moment when solar and wind finally eclipsed coal as the world's largest source of electricity. As of early 2026, global renewable capacity has surpassed 5,000 gigawatts, with deployment continuing to accelerate despite policy uncertainties in major markets. The acceleration is now visible across continents: Australia achieved over 50% renewable grid penetration in late 2025, Africa recorded its fastest-ever solar growth at 54% year-over-year, and India reached 51.5% non-fossil electricity capacity—five years ahead of its 2030 target.
The shift marks more than an environmental milestone. For decades, renewables carried an aura of virtue—buyers paid premium prices out of climate concern. Now the driver is pure economics: solar electricity costs 89% less than it did a decade ago, and rooftop panels are spreading across Africa and South Asia not for green credentials but because they're simply the cheapest way to power a light or charge a phone. In the United States, renewables and battery storage are projected to account for 99% of all new generating capacity in 2026, while wind and solar combined are expected to reach 21% of U.S. electricity generation by 2027—a trajectory that suggests the economic transition is accelerating even as political headwinds intensify. However, emerging supply chain pressures—including anticipated U.S. tariffs on solar imports from India, Indonesia, and Laos expected in late February 2026—and intense price competition in China's manufacturing sector threaten to slow deployment in price-sensitive regions.
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Oscar Wilde
(1854-1900) ·Victorian · wit
Fictional AI pastiche — not real quote.
"How delightful that humanity has finally discovered virtue becomes infinitely more fashionable when it costs nothing at all. We spent a century pretending to worship the sun as a deity of conscience, only to embrace it the moment we realized it was merely good business—proving once again that we are far too practical a species to ever be truly moral."
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People Involved
Fatih Birol
Executive Director, International Energy Agency (Leading voice on global energy transition analysis)
H. Holden Thorp
Editor-in-Chief, Science Magazine (Oversaw selection of renewable energy as 2025 Breakthrough)
Organizations Involved
IN
International Energy Agency (IEA)
Intergovernmental Organization
Status: Primary authority on global energy statistics and forecasting
The IEA was created after the 1973 oil crisis to coordinate energy security among industrialized nations and now serves as the world's leading authority on energy data and transition analysis.
SC
Science Magazine (AAAS)
Scientific Journal
Status: Named renewable energy surge 2025 Breakthrough of the Year
One of the world's most prestigious peer-reviewed scientific journals, published by the American Association for the Advancement of Science.
EM
Ember
Energy Think Tank
Status: Key source for real-time electricity generation data
Independent energy think tank that tracks global electricity generation and publishes real-time data on the shift from coal to clean power.
Timeline
U.S. Solar Tariff Decisions Imminent
Policy
Preliminary countervailing duty rates on solar cells and modules from India, Indonesia, and Laos expected end of February 2026, with preliminary anti-dumping duties due end of April. Rates expected to be prohibitive when combined.
China Revises 2026 Solar Forecast Downward
Forecast
China Photovoltaic Industry Association released revised forecast of 180-240 GW solar capacity additions for 2026, down from earlier 235 GW estimate, reflecting intense price competition and industry consolidation. CPIA expects average annual additions of 238-287 GW through 2030.
Global Clean Energy Deployment Accelerates Across Four Continents
Milestone
Australia achieved 50%+ renewable grid penetration in Q4 2025; Africa recorded 54% YoY solar growth; EU wind+solar reached 30% of generation; India hit 51.5% non-fossil capacity five years ahead of target. China added 543 GW total capacity in 2025.
China Forecast to Add 235 GW Solar in 2026
Forecast
China expected to commission 235 GW of solar PV and 98 GW of wind capacity in 2026, continuing its dominance in global renewable deployment and pushing total global renewable additions higher.
U.S. Renewables Set to Dominate 2026 Capacity Additions
Milestone
U.S. Energy Information Administration projects renewables and battery storage will account for 99.2% of net new generating capacity in 2026, with solar and wind combined reaching 21% of U.S. electricity generation by 2027.
IRENA Plans Fossil Fuel Transition Roadmap
Policy
International Renewable Energy Agency preparing comprehensive strategy to phase out fossil fuels globally, to be presented at COP31 leadership meetings.
Global Renewable Capacity Surpasses 5,000 GW
Milestone
World reaches over 5,000 GW of installed renewable power capacity by end of 2025, with additions only needing to rise 12% annually through 2030 to meet global tripling targets.
Science Names Renewable Surge 2025 Breakthrough
Recognition
Science Magazine selected the growth of renewable energy as its annual Breakthrough of the Year, citing the sector's shift from virtue-driven adoption to economic inevitability.
Renewables Overtake Coal Globally
Milestone
For the first time in history, renewable sources generated more electricity than coal worldwide, with renewables reaching 34.3% of global generation versus coal's 33.1%.
China Exceeds 1 Terawatt of Solar Capacity
Milestone
China became the first country to surpass one terawatt of installed solar power, a capacity equivalent to roughly 1,000 nuclear reactors.
India Crosses 100 GW Solar Threshold
Milestone
India's installed solar capacity surpassed 100 gigawatts, with the country adding nearly 35 GW in 2025 alone—a 41% year-over-year increase.
China's Emissions Begin 18-Month Plateau
Climate
China's carbon dioxide emissions flattened or declined, a trend that would continue for 18 months as renewable deployment outpaced electricity demand growth.
Global Solar Installations Hit 585 GW Record
Milestone
The world installed a record 585 gigawatts of new solar capacity in 2024, 30% more than 2023 and more than double the 2022 figure.
Denmark Exceeds 50% Wind Power
Milestone
Denmark became the first country to generate more than half its electricity from wind, demonstrating that high renewable penetration was technically feasible.
Solar Cost Baseline Established
Milestone
Residential solar installations cost roughly $8.70 per watt; utility-scale systems around $7.50 per watt, setting the baseline for subsequent price declines.
Germany Enacts Renewable Energy Act
Policy
Germany's Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz established feed-in tariffs guaranteeing prices for renewable electricity, accelerating solar and wind deployment.
First Modern Wind Turbine Launched
Technology
Danish company Vestas released its V10-30kW model, launching the modern wind power industry.
Arab Oil Embargo Sparks Energy Crisis
Origin
The Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries declared an oil embargo, triggering the first modern energy crisis and catalyzing government investment in alternative energy research.
Scenarios
1
Renewables Deliver 50% of Global Power by 2030
Discussed by: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2025; Ember Global Electricity Review
If current deployment trends continue—particularly the 50-70% annual growth rates seen in solar installations—renewables could supply half of global electricity by 2030, with solar alone quadrupling from 2023 levels. This scenario assumes continued cost declines, adequate grid investment (estimated at $14 trillion globally through 2050), and stable policy support in major markets. China's trajectory is determinative: the country already accounts for 55% of global solar deployment growth.
Existing electrical grids, designed for centralized fossil fuel generation, may struggle to absorb variable renewable output at the pace required. Without massive upgrades to transmission lines, battery storage, and smart grid management, curtailment of renewable power could increase significantly. This scenario would see deployment continuing but utilization rates falling, slowing effective decarbonization despite capacity additions.
3
Policy Reversals Stall Transition Outside China
Discussed by: Resources for the Future Global Energy Outlook 2025; climate policy analysts
The United States and other major economies retreat from clean energy incentives while maintaining fossil fuel support. As the U.S. under the current administration cuts renewable subsidies and eases oil and gas licensing, other nations may follow, fragmenting global momentum. China would continue dominating renewable manufacturing and deployment, but overall global growth rates could moderate, delaying peak fossil fuel demand beyond current projections.
If China's emissions plateau holds and renewable deployment continues accelerating in India, Africa, and other emerging markets, 2025 or 2026 could mark the peak of global fossil fuel carbon emissions. This would represent a historic inflection point—the moment after which emissions begin a permanent decline. The scenario depends on China maintaining its clean energy investment trajectory and emerging economies leapfrogging fossil fuel infrastructure.
5
U.S. Policy Volatility Fragments Global Supply Chains
Discussed by: Deloitte 2026 Renewable Energy Outlook; renewable energy industry analysts
New foreign entity of concern (FEOC) sourcing rules targeting China-linked entities create supply chain disruptions and cost pressures. While U.S. deployment continues through safe-harbor projects, global manufacturing and component sourcing fragment, raising costs in non-U.S. markets and slowing deployment in price-sensitive regions like Africa and South Asia.
6
Battery Storage Becomes Grid Bottleneck Solution
Discussed by: EIA capacity forecasts; Deloitte renewable outlook
As solar and wind reach 25-30% of U.S. generation, battery storage deployment accelerates to manage variability. By 2030, storage capacity could reach 187 GW, with over half paired to solar installations. This solves grid integration challenges but requires sustained investment in manufacturing and grid upgrades.
Historical Context
1973 Oil Embargo
October 1973 - March 1974
What Happened
Arab oil-exporting nations imposed an embargo on the United States and other countries supporting Israel in the Yom Kippur War. Oil prices quadrupled, gas lines stretched for blocks, and industrialized economies faced their first modern energy crisis.
Outcome
Short Term
The embargo catalyzed the creation of the International Energy Agency in 1974 and prompted governments to fund alternative energy research.
Long Term
It planted the seeds of the modern renewable energy industry, though fossil fuel abundance in the 1980s-90s delayed widespread adoption by decades.
Why It's Relevant Today
Today's renewable surge completes a 52-year arc that began with the oil crisis—except now economics, not crisis response, drives adoption.
Germany's Energiewende (2000-present)
April 2000 - present
What Happened
Germany enacted the Renewable Energy Act, guaranteeing fixed prices for solar and wind electricity. The policy triggered a boom in distributed generation, with citizens and cooperatives rather than utilities leading deployment. By 2020, renewables supplied over 40% of German electricity.
Outcome
Short Term
Electricity prices rose significantly for consumers, drawing criticism, but renewable costs plummeted as German demand created global manufacturing scale.
Long Term
Germany's subsidy-driven market creation is credited with driving the 89% solar cost decline that now makes renewables economically competitive worldwide.
Why It's Relevant Today
The current global transition is reaping the benefits of Germany's early, expensive investments—today's cheap solar exists because Germany paid premium prices 15 years ago.
Denmark's Wind Power Breakthrough (1979-2019)
1979 - 2019
What Happened
Following the oil crisis, Denmark invested heavily in wind power, with Vestas launching the modern wind turbine industry in 1979. By 2019, Denmark became the first country where wind generated more than 50% of electricity.
Outcome
Short Term
Denmark created a world-leading wind industry and dramatically reduced fossil fuel dependence.
Long Term
Danish success demonstrated that high renewable penetration was technically achievable, influencing other nations' ambitions.
Why It's Relevant Today
Denmark's path showed that renewable-majority grids were possible—a proof of concept that informed the IEA's current projections of 50% global renewable share by 2030.
