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Kalshi raises $1 billion at a $40 billion valuation

Kalshi raises $1 billion at a $40 billion valuation

Money Moves

The prediction market's latest round nearly doubles its May valuation and sets up a possible 2027 public listing.

Yesterday: Kalshi raises $1 billion at $40 billion valuation

Overview

Updated 35 minutes ago

Kalshi raised $1 billion at a $40 billion valuation, nearly double the $22 billion it fetched in May and eight times its value a year ago. Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management co-led the round. The company says the money will build a broader exchange around its prediction markets.

Kalshi plans single-stock perpetual futures, contracts tied to computing costs and index products, putting it closer to Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). The expansion is contested. Two federal appeals courts have ruled that states can regulate its sports contracts, and Utah filed criminal charges against the company and its co-founders on October 28.

Why it matters

If Kalshi's model survives the state lawsuits, contracts on elections, interest rates and weather could trade alongside stocks and futures.

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Key Indicators

$40B
Post-money valuation
Set in the October 2026 Series G round.
$1B
Series G raise
Co-led by Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management.
$22B
May 2026 valuation
The prior round's post-money value, less than six months earlier.
$1T+
Annualized trading volume
Company figure for its overall business.
30M+
Accounts
Kalshi says more than 30 million accounts have been created.
75%+
Prediction market share
Kalshi's share of prediction market trading volume.
500
Institutional entities active
Approximate number on the exchange in September 2026.

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People Involved

Tarek Mansour
Tarek Mansour
Co-founder and chief executive of Kalshi
Runs a $40 billion company; named in Utah criminal complaint
 Luana Lopes Lara
Luana Lopes Lara
Co-founder of Kalshi
Named in Utah criminal complaint; company valued at $40 billion
 Derek Brown
Derek Brown
Utah attorney general
Prosecuting Kalshi and its co-founders

Organizations Involved

Kalshi
Kalshi
Prediction market and financial exchange
Raised $1 billion at a $40 billion valuation

Kalshi is a US exchange that lists event contracts on elections, economics, weather, sports and other outcomes.
Sequoia Capital
Sequoia Capital
Venture capital firm
Co-led Kalshi's $1 billion Series G

Sequoia Capital is a venture capital firm that co-led Kalshi's October 2026 funding round.
Wellington Management
Wellington Management
Asset manager
Co-led Kalshi's $1 billion Series G

Wellington Management is an asset manager that co-led Kalshi's October 2026 funding round.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Federal Agency
Defends federal authority over event contracts

The CFTC is the federal agency that regulates US futures and event contracts.
Utah Attorney General's Office
Utah Attorney General's Office
State legal office
Prosecuting Kalshi and its co-founders

The Utah Attorney General's Office filed criminal gambling charges against Kalshi and its co-founders on October 28, 2026.

Timeline

October 2025 October 2026

8 events Latest: Yesterday
Tap a bar to jump to that date

  1. Kalshi raises $1 billion at $40 billion valuation

    Latest Funding

    Kalshi announces a $1 billion Series G at a $40 billion valuation.

  2. Utah files criminal charges against Kalshi

    Legal

    Utah files 14 criminal counts against Kalshi and its two co-founders.

  3. Bloomberg reports $40 billion round being finalized

    Funding

    Bloomberg reports Kalshi is finalizing a $40 billion round ahead of a public listing.

  4. Second appeals court backs states; third backs federal authority

    Legal

    A second appeals court backs state regulation; a third backs federal authority.

  5. Appeals court backs state regulation of sports contracts

    Legal

    A federal appeals court rules that states can regulate sports event contracts.

  6. Kalshi raises $1 billion at $22 billion valuation

    Funding

    Kalshi raises $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation.

  7. Kalshi launches perpetual futures

    Product

    Kalshi launches perpetual futures, its first product outside prediction markets.

  8. Kalshi valued at $5 billion

    Funding

    Investors value Kalshi at $5 billion, a fraction of its later price.

Scenarios

1

Kalshi files for a public listing in 2027

Likely Resolves by End of 2027

Discussed by: Bloomberg and CNBC, citing people familiar with the plans and CEO Tarek Mansour.

Bloomberg reported in September that the $40 billion round would be Kalshi's last private raise before a public listing, possibly in 2027. Mansour told CNBC in June that a listing is a matter of when, not if, for a company of Kalshi's size and growth rate. A filing would test whether public investors value prediction-market revenue like an exchange or like a sportsbook.

2

Supreme Court rules states cannot ban Kalshi's sports contracts

Possible Resolves by Q2 2027

Discussed by: Kalshi's court filings and SBC Americas' coverage of the circuit split.

Two appeals courts have sided with states; a third has sided with federal authority. Kalshi and the CFTC argue that the Commodity Exchange Act gives the federal government exclusive power over event contracts listed on a registered exchange. If the Supreme Court takes the case and agrees, state gambling enforcement against Kalshi's sports markets would stop.

3

Supreme Court lets states regulate Kalshi's sports contracts

Possible Resolves by Q2 2027

Discussed by: SBC Americas and Sigma World, which reported the appellate rulings and Utah's charges.

The opposite ruling would leave the August and September appellate decisions in place. States could then enforce gambling laws against sports-related event contracts, and Kalshi would have to wall off or restructure its largest customer-acquisition channel. That would not end its crypto, economics or commodities business, but it would slow the growth story behind the $40 billion valuation.

4

Utah's criminal case against Kalshi is dismissed

Possible Resolves by End of 2027

Discussed by: Sigma World, which reported the charges and Kalshi's pledge to fight them.

Utah charged Kalshi and its co-founders with 14 counts, including 12 counts of online gambling promotion. Kalshi says the action is an overreach and will challenge it in court. A dismissal would remove the most direct personal legal threat to Mansour and Lopes Lara; a conviction or plea would give other states a template.

Historical Context

3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

November 2012-March 2013

Intrade shutdown (2012-2013)

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission sued Intrade, an Irish prediction market popular with US traders, alleging it offered off-exchange options on commodities and events. Intrade stopped accepting US customers and halted trading in March 2013.

Then

Intrade's US business closed and the site went dark.

Now

Prediction markets moved offshore or into academic settings, and US regulators treated event contracts as a narrow exception.

Why this matters now

Kalshi's legal strategy depends on being regulated as a designated contract market, the distinction Intrade lacked.

January 2022

Polymarket CFTC settlement (2022)

The CFTC ordered Polymarket to pay $1.4 million and block US users, finding it had offered off-exchange binary options without registration. Polymarket had become the largest prediction market during the 2020 election.

Then

Polymarket paid the penalty and geofenced the US.

Now

It later re-entered the US market, while Kalshi pursued the regulated exchange route.

Why this matters now

The settlement shows the compliance cost that Kalshi is trying to turn into a competitive advantage.

1972

Chicago Mercantile Exchange launches currency futures (1972)

The CME created the International Monetary Market and listed futures on foreign currencies, the first financial futures contracts. Before that, US futures trading was dominated by agricultural commodities.

Then

The contracts drew hedgers and speculators and pushed the CME into interest-rate and stock-index futures.

Now

Financial futures became the core of modern exchanges, and the CME became one of the world's largest derivatives marketplaces.

Why this matters now

Kalshi is making the same argument for event contracts: that a new class of uncertainty can be standardized and traded on an exchange.

Sources

(11)
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Kalshi News CNBC The Information SBC Americas Sigma World CryptoWatch Desk Bloomberg Techmeme Reuters Builders in Fintech Tech Funding News