Monthly price controls in an import-dependent economy
February 15th, 2026: February Fuel Price CutNew here? Follow stories to track developments over time. Create a free account to get updates when stories you care about change.
In This Story
Close-up of a vintage gas pump station showing fuel prices and octane ratings in Los Angeles.
Motorists and cyclists refuel at a bustling Nairobi petrol station on a sunny day.
Cars queue for fuel at a bustling gas station in Nairobi, Kenya.
Fuel prices fall: Super petrol sh182.52, diesel sh170.47
KTN News Kenya
EPRA to introduce new charges on fuel prices
Citizen TV Kenya
EPRA announces fuel price cuts as petrol prices now at ...
KTN News Kenya
Images from Openverse under Creative Commons licenses. Videos from YouTube.
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Fictional AI pastiche — not real quote.
"A government that sets prices monthly proves it trusts neither the market nor itself. Kenya imports dependency and calls it energy policy—when their Turkana field opens, we shall see if they possess the nerve to let honest competition replace bureaucratic arithmetic."
Fictional AI pastiche — not real quote.
"Kenya has discovered that price controls designed to "protect" consumers from market reality merely guarantee that every citizen becomes a hostage to bureaucratic formulas and political riots—proving once again that when a government promises to shield you from economic law, it can only offer you the choice between stagnation and chaos. The real tragedy is not that Kenyans pay $1.38 per liter, but that their leaders have taught them to beg the state for permission to trade, rather than to demand the freedom to produce."
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EPRA sets monthly maximum fuel prices using a formula that accounts for landed import costs, exchange rates, taxes, and margins for wholesalers and retailers.
The IMF's $2.3 billion lending program for Kenya includes conditions to reduce fuel and electricity subsidies.
EPRA reduces petrol by 4.24 shillings, diesel by 3.93 shillings, and kerosene by 1 shilling. Petrol now 178.28 shillings in Nairobi.
EPRA reduces petrol by 2 shillings, diesel by 1 shilling, and kerosene by 1 shilling per liter.
Kenya approves 793 billion shilling South Lokichar Basin development plan, targeting first oil exports by December 2026.
EPRA implements updated Cost-of-Service Study findings, adjusting margins for wholesalers and retailers.
President concedes to protesters and announces he will not sign Finance Bill 2024, ordering budget cuts instead.
Demonstrators breach parliament buildings protesting Finance Bill 2024 tax increases. At least 22 killed in clashes.
Under pressure from months of violent protests, government partially restores fuel subsidies despite IMF criticism.
Opposition leader Raila Odinga calls nationwide protests against high fuel prices and tax increases. At least 30 people killed.
Newly inaugurated President William Ruto eliminates fuel subsidies, citing fiscal sustainability.
IMF lending program includes conditions for Kenya to reduce fuel and electricity subsidies.
Petroleum Development Levy begins funding price stabilization mechanism to cushion consumers from volatility.
Kenya Petroleum Refineries Limited ceases operations, making Kenya 100% dependent on refined fuel imports.
Government implements maximum price cap after fuel marketers failed to lower prices when international crude costs fell in 2008.
Discussed by: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Agency, J.P. Morgan Research
Global oil supply is outpacing demand, with the EIA forecasting Brent crude to average $58 per barrel in 2026, down from $68 in early 2026. If this trend holds and the Kenyan shilling remains stable around 129 per dollar, EPRA's monthly reviews would deliver continued small price cuts. This would ease pressure on matatu operators and consumers, potentially reducing inflation further below the 5% target. However, lower fuel taxes also mean reduced government revenue at a time when Kenya faces IMF fiscal targets.
Discussed by: Kenya Ministry of Petroleum, Gulf Energy, industry analysts
Kenya's South Lokichar Basin project targets first oil by December 2026, with initial production of 20,000 barrels per day. If achieved, this would mark Kenya's first sustained domestic production. The impact on pump prices is uncertain—crude would still need refining abroad initially—but it could reduce import costs and foreign exchange pressure. The larger shift would be psychological: Kenya would move from pure import dependency toward partial energy self-sufficiency.
Discussed by: IEA Oil Market Reports, geopolitical analysts
Iran tensions, Red Sea shipping disruptions, or OPEC supply cuts could reverse the current downward price trend. If landed costs spike as they did in 2022-2023, EPRA would be forced to pass increases through to consumers. Given the political trauma of the 2023-2024 protests, President Ruto would face pressure to deploy the stabilization fund or reinstate subsidies—again putting Kenya at odds with IMF conditions.
Discussed by: Kenyan civil society groups, opposition politicians, Institute of Economic Affairs Kenya
Critics argue EPRA's formula includes excessive margins for oil marketers and that the Petroleum Development Levy funds are not transparently managed. Sustained public pressure could force reforms to the pricing methodology—perhaps capping margins or increasing transparency on how stabilization funds are deployed. This would require legislative action and could face resistance from oil marketing companies.
Newly inaugurated President Bola Tinubu announced total removal of Nigeria's fuel subsidy on May 29, 2023. Petrol prices jumped from 185 naira to over 500 naira per liter overnight. The subsidy had cost Nigeria an estimated $10 billion annually but kept fuel artificially cheap in Africa's largest oil producer.
Prices ultimately rose to over 1,000 naira per liter by 2024. Transportation costs doubled, driving up food prices nationwide. Labor unions threatened indefinite strikes but suspended action after negotiations.
The World Bank projected four in ten Nigerians would fall below the poverty line by end of 2024. The shock illustrated the political and economic costs of abrupt subsidy removal—a lesson relevant to Kenya's more gradual approach.
Kenya avoided Nigeria's shock therapy by implementing monthly price adjustments rather than sudden subsidy removal. But both countries face the same underlying tension: IMF pressure for fiscal discipline versus public dependence on fuel subsidies.
Opposition leader Raila Odinga called protests against fuel prices and tax increases in March 2023. Demonstrations turned violent, with police killing at least 30 protesters. The crisis peaked in June 2024 when protesters stormed parliament to oppose the Finance Bill, leaving at least 22 dead.
President Ruto reinstated fuel subsidies in August 2023 and withdrew the Finance Bill in June 2024, ordering nearly 1 trillion shilling in budget cuts instead.
The protests demonstrated that Kenyan citizens will mobilize violently against perceived unfair energy costs, creating a political constraint on future subsidy removal regardless of IMF preferences.
The February 2026 price cut occurs in the aftermath of this trauma. Any future price increases will be viewed through the lens of these protests, limiting government options during global price spikes.
After protests against high fuel prices and revelations that oil marketers had not passed through international price decreases to consumers, Kenya's government implemented maximum price caps. The Energy Regulatory Commission began calculating monthly prices based on import costs and exchange rates.
Consumers gained protection against price gouging, though prices remained tied to volatile international markets.
The price control system became institutionalized, surviving multiple administrations and evolving into EPRA's current formula under the Petroleum Act 2019.
The February 2026 price review is a routine application of this 14-year-old regulatory framework. The system has proven durable but faces new questions as Kenya potentially transitions toward domestic oil production.
