Overview
North Korea has conducted over 272 missile launches since 2012, with the pace accelerating dramatically. In late December 2025, Kim Jong Un watched cruise missiles fly for nearly three hours before hitting their targets, declaring the need for 'unlimited and sustained' nuclear expansion. Days earlier, he revealed an 8,700-ton nuclear-powered submarine under construction—potentially with Russian assistance—and oversaw tests of new anti-air missiles hitting targets at 200 km altitude. Russia is now feeding Pyongyang advanced missile and space technology in exchange for artillery shells and troops for Ukraine—obliterating what's left of international sanctions.
The stakes: North Korea may possess 50 nuclear warheads now and could build 200+ by 2030. It's developing tactical nukes for battlefield use, the untested Hwasong-20 ICBM designed to carry multiple warheads, and hypersonic missiles designed to evade defenses. After declaring South Korea a 'hostile state' in its constitution, Pyongyang has abandoned reunification dreams and appears to be preparing for conflict, not diplomacy. Kim is pushing weapons factories to boost production ahead of the Workers' Party Congress in early 2026, where a new Five-Year Plan is expected.
Key Indicators
People Involved
Organizations Involved
The unit responsible for North Korea's ballistic missiles and nuclear strike capabilities.
The UN body created to enforce sanctions against North Korea's weapons programs.
A forum for U.S.-South Korea coordination on nuclear planning against North Korean threats.
Timeline
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Kim orders missile production increase for 2026
Policy AnnouncementDuring munitions factory visits, Kim orders stepped-up production of missiles and artillery shells ahead of early 2026 Workers' Party Congress. Urges completion of major projects before congress unveils new five-year development plan.
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Kim denounces US-ROK nuclear submarine cooperation
Policy StatementKim calls US-South Korea agreement on nuclear submarine development 'an offensive act severely violating Pyongyang's security.' Responds to Trump administration blessing Seoul's nuclear submarine pursuit.
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Nuclear-powered submarine revealed
Military DisplayKim inspects 8,700-ton nuclear-powered strategic guided missile submarine under construction at indoor facility. First disclosure of tonnage and completed hull since 2021 announcement. South Korean intelligence reports Russia may have transferred nuclear submarine modules.
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New anti-air missiles tested at 200 km altitude
Weapons TestKim oversees test of high-altitude long-range anti-air missiles in East Sea. Missiles accurately hit mock targets at 200 km altitude in first evaluation of system under development.
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Hwasong-20 ICBM unveiled at military parade
Military DisplayNorth Korea displays new solid-fuel ICBM at Workers' Party 80th anniversary parade. Described as 'most powerful nuclear strategic weapon,' the three-stage missile may carry multiple warheads. Not yet flight-tested.
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Long-range cruise missiles tested for nearly 3 hours
Weapons TestStrategic cruise missiles fly 10,199 and 10,203 seconds over Yellow Sea. Kim calls for 'unlimited nuclear development.'
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Kim orders missile production boost for 2026
Policy AnnouncementVisits munitions factories, orders increased production to meet Five-Year Plan goals ahead of 2026 party congress.
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250 tactical nuclear launchers displayed
Military DisplayKim shows off mobile launchers intended to deploy tactical nukes to front-line battalions.
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Hwasong-16B hypersonic IRBM test
Weapons TestFirst missile launch of 2025. Flies 1,100 km with hypersonic glide vehicle designed to evade missile defenses.
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North Korean troops arrive in Russia
Military CooperationOver 10,000 North Korean soldiers deployed to Kursk region to fight Ukraine. First combat deployment abroad in decades.
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Constitution amended: South Korea now 'hostile state'
Policy ShiftNorth Korea abandons reunification goal, formally defines South as enemy. Roads and rail links blown up.
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Russia-North Korea defense treaty signed
AlliancePutin and Kim sign Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with mutual defense clause—strongest tie since Cold War.
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Russia vetoes UN sanctions monitoring renewal
Sanctions ErosionPanel of Experts disbanded. International oversight of North Korea sanctions effectively ends.
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U.S.-ROK Nuclear Consultative Group formed
DeterrenceWashington Declaration gives Seoul role in nuclear planning. Kim later calls this an 'offensive act.'
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Hwasan-31 tactical warhead unveiled
Military DisplayKim poses with miniaturized nuclear warheads designed for battlefield use on short-range missiles.
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Record year: 90 missile launches
Weapons TestNorth Korea conducts unprecedented testing surge, including ICBMs and missiles over Japanese territory.
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Kim unveils Five-Year Defense Plan
Policy ShiftCalls for tactical nukes, 15,000 km ICBM, hypersonic missiles, nuclear submarines, and MIRV technology by 2026.
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Hanoi summit collapses without deal
DiplomacyTrump walks out after Kim demands full sanctions relief for partial dismantlement of Yongbyon. Negotiations effectively end.
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Trump-Kim summit in Singapore
DiplomacyFirst meeting between sitting U.S. president and North Korean leader. Vague commitment to 'complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.'
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North Korea displays missiles at military parade
Military DisplayPyongyang showcases Hwasong-15 ICBM and other weapons before diplomatic outreach begins.
Scenarios
Russia Provides Reentry Technology, North Korea Perfects ICBMs by 2027
Discussed by: U.S. Forces Korea Commander (2025 testimony), Congressional Research Service, 38 North analysts
Russia accelerates technology transfer under the 2024 defense treaty, sharing space and missile expertise that helps North Korea solve its biggest technical gap: ICBM reentry vehicles. With Russian satellite data and materials science, Pyongyang successfully tests a warhead that survives atmospheric reentry by 2027, proving it can strike any U.S. city. This forces a fundamental reassessment of deterrence strategy and likely triggers calls for U.S. tactical nuclear deployments in South Korea, dramatically raising tensions.
Seventh Nuclear Test Conducted, Sanctions Remain Toothless
Discussed by: U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (2025 assessment), Arms Control Association
North Korea conducts its seventh nuclear test at the restored Punggye-ri site—likely testing a tactical warhead or demonstrating higher yields. The U.S., South Korea, and Japan condemn it loudly but can't get UN Security Council action because Russia and China block any response. Ad hoc sanctions by Western nations prove ineffective since Russia buys North Korean weapons and China continues trade. The test demonstrates both capability and impunity, emboldening Kim to accelerate deployments.
Tactical Nukes Delegated to Front-Line Commanders, Crisis Risk Soars
Discussed by: NDU Proliferation Papers analysis, Asia-Pacific Leadership Network
North Korea moves from centralized control to a hybrid model, pre-deploying tactical nuclear weapons with battalion-level units near the DMZ. This shortens decision timelines to minutes in a crisis but raises risks of unauthorized use, accidents, or miscalculation during military exercises. A tense border incident could spiral into nuclear use before leaders in Pyongyang or Washington even understand what's happening. South Korea responds by demanding U.S. nuclear weapons on its soil.
Diplomatic Reset After Leadership Change or Economic Collapse
Discussed by: Historical precedent skeptics, RAND Corporation analysts
North Korea's economy, already devastated by sanctions and COVID isolation, deteriorates to the point where even elite loyalty wavers. Alternatively, a succession crisis or internal power struggle forces new leadership to seek sanctions relief. Negotiations restart with more realistic goals: a freeze on further development in exchange for partial sanctions relief, not full denuclearization. North Korea keeps what it has built but stops expanding. This requires abandoning the goal of complete denuclearization—a political impossibility in Washington.
Nuclear Submarine Operational by 2028, Alters Naval Balance
Discussed by: 38 North analysts, ROK Defense Intelligence, CNN reporting on Russian assistance
With Russian technical assistance including reactor modules from decommissioned submarines, North Korea successfully launches its nuclear-powered submarine by 2027 and achieves operational capability by 2028. The vessel carries submarine-launched ballistic missiles, giving Pyongyang a survivable second-strike capability that complicates U.S. and allied tracking. This forces South Korea to accelerate its own nuclear submarine program and triggers expanded U.S. submarine deployments to the region, raising underwater confrontation risks.
Historical Context
Cuban Missile Crisis (1962)
October 16-28, 1962What Happened
The Soviet Union secretly deployed nuclear missiles to Cuba, 90 miles from Florida. U.S. reconnaissance discovered them, President Kennedy imposed a naval blockade, and for 13 days the world teetered on the brink of nuclear war. Soviet Premier Khrushchev ultimately agreed to remove the missiles in exchange for a U.S. pledge not to invade Cuba and secret removal of U.S. missiles from Turkey.
Outcome
Short term: Crisis resolved through backchannel diplomacy and mutual concessions, narrowly avoiding war.
Long term: Led to the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (1963), hotline between Washington and Moscow, and lessons about giving adversaries face-saving exits.
Why It's Relevant
North Korea today resembles a slow-motion Cuban Missile Crisis—but one where diplomacy failed. Kim won't give up his missiles, and unlike 1962, there's no obvious deal that satisfies both sides. The lesson: managing the threat may be more realistic than eliminating it.
Iran Nuclear Program and JCPOA (2003-2025)
2003-presentWhat Happened
After Iran's secret nuclear program was exposed in 2002, years of negotiations led to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which froze Iran's program in exchange for sanctions relief. Trump withdrew in 2018, reimposing sanctions. Iran resumed enrichment and is now closer to weapons capability than ever. Attempts to revive the deal have stalled.
Outcome
Short term: JCPOA successfully froze Iran's program from 2015-2018 through verification and economic incentives.
Long term: Deal's collapse demonstrated that agreements without sustained political commitment are fragile. Iran's breakout time shortened dramatically.
Why It's Relevant
Shows that partial deals can work—but only if all sides stick to them. North Korea won't accept JCPOA-style inspections, and the Trump-Kim summits proved charisma can't substitute for details. Unlike Iran, North Korea already has the bomb.
Pakistan Nuclear Weapons Development (1972-1998)
1972-1998What Happened
After India's 1974 nuclear test, Pakistan pursued its own bomb through uranium enrichment and plutonium production, receiving covert Chinese assistance. Despite U.S. sanctions and nonproliferation pressure, Pakistan tested nuclear weapons in 1998, becoming the first Muslim-majority nuclear state. International community eventually accepted the fait accompli.
Outcome
Short term: Pakistan faced sanctions but achieved nuclear deterrence against India.
Long term: World adapted to Pakistan as a nuclear state. A.Q. Khan network later proliferated technology to Libya, Iran, and North Korea.
Why It's Relevant
North Korea is following Pakistan's playbook: defying sanctions, accepting isolation, and banking that the world will eventually accommodate a nuclear-armed DPRK. Pakistan's A.Q. Khan even helped North Korea's program. The lesson: once you have the bomb, rollback becomes nearly impossible.