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North Korea's relentless nuclear expansion

North Korea's relentless nuclear expansion

New Capabilities

From diplomatic freeze to Russia-backed acceleration

December 28th, 2025: Long-range cruise missiles tested for nearly 3 hours

Overview

North Korea has conducted over 272 missile launches since 2012, with the pace accelerating dramatically. In late December 2025, Kim Jong Un watched cruise missiles fly for nearly three hours before hitting their targets, declaring the need for 'unlimited and sustained' nuclear expansion.

Days earlier, Kim revealed an 8,700-ton nuclear-powered submarine under construction (potentially with Russian assistance) and oversaw tests of new anti-air missiles hitting targets at 200 km altitude. Russia is now feeding Pyongyang advanced missile and space technology in exchange for artillery shells and troops for Ukraine—obliterating what's left of international sanctions.

North Korea may possess 50 nuclear warheads now and could build 200+ by 2030 while developing tactical nukes for battlefield use, the untested Hwasong-20 ICBM designed to carry multiple warheads, and hypersonic missiles designed to evade defenses. After declaring South Korea a 'hostile state,' Pyongyang has abandoned reunification dreams and appears to be preparing for conflict, not diplomacy. Kim is pushing factories to boost production ahead of the Workers' Party Congress in early 2026, where a new Five-Year Plan is expected.

Key Indicators

272+
Missile launches since 2012
North Korea has tested missiles at an unprecedented rate, with 90 launches in 2022 alone
~50
Nuclear warheads assembled
Enough fissile material for 90 warheads, with production capacity for 6-7 more annually
8,700 tons
Nuclear submarine under construction
First nuclear-powered submarine revealed December 2025, possibly using Russian modules
200 km
Anti-air missile altitude achieved
New high-altitude air defense system tested December 2025 to counter aerial threats

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People Involved

Organizations Involved

Timeline

February 2018 December 2025

20 events Latest: December 28th, 2025 · 5 months ago Showing 8 of 20
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  1. Long-range cruise missiles tested for nearly 3 hours

    Latest Weapons Test

    Strategic cruise missiles fly 10,199 and 10,203 seconds over Yellow Sea. Kim calls for 'unlimited nuclear development.'

  2. Kim orders missile production increase for 2026

    Policy Announcement

    During munitions factory visits, Kim orders stepped-up production of missiles and artillery shells ahead of early 2026 Workers' Party Congress. Urges completion of major projects before congress unveils new five-year development plan.

  3. Kim orders missile production boost for 2026

    Policy Announcement

    Visits munitions factories, orders increased production to meet Five-Year Plan goals ahead of 2026 party congress.

  4. Nuclear-powered submarine revealed

    Military Display

    Kim inspects 8,700-ton nuclear-powered strategic guided missile submarine under construction at indoor facility. First disclosure of tonnage and completed hull since 2021 announcement. South Korean intelligence reports Russia may have transferred nuclear submarine modules.

  5. Kim denounces US-ROK nuclear submarine cooperation

    Policy Statement

    Kim calls US-South Korea agreement on nuclear submarine development 'an offensive act severely violating Pyongyang's security.' Responds to Trump administration blessing Seoul's nuclear submarine pursuit.

  6. New anti-air missiles tested at 200 km altitude

    Weapons Test

    Kim oversees test of high-altitude long-range anti-air missiles in East Sea. Missiles accurately hit mock targets at 200 km altitude in first evaluation of system under development.

  7. Hwasong-20 ICBM unveiled at military parade

    Military Display

    North Korea displays new solid-fuel ICBM at Workers' Party 80th anniversary parade. Described as 'most powerful nuclear strategic weapon,' the three-stage missile may carry multiple warheads. Not yet flight-tested.

  8. 250 tactical nuclear launchers displayed

    Military Display

    Kim shows off mobile launchers intended to deploy tactical nukes to front-line battalions.

  9. Hwasong-16B hypersonic IRBM test

    Weapons Test

    First missile launch of 2025. Flies 1,100 km with hypersonic glide vehicle designed to evade missile defenses.

  10. North Korean troops arrive in Russia

    Military Cooperation

    Over 10,000 North Korean soldiers deployed to Kursk region to fight Ukraine. First combat deployment abroad in decades.

  11. Constitution amended: South Korea now 'hostile state'

    Policy Shift

    North Korea abandons reunification goal, formally defines South as enemy. Roads and rail links blown up.

  12. Russia-North Korea defense treaty signed

    Alliance

    Putin and Kim sign Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with mutual defense clause—strongest tie since Cold War.

  13. Russia vetoes UN sanctions monitoring renewal

    Sanctions Erosion

    Panel of Experts disbanded. International oversight of North Korea sanctions effectively ends.

  14. U.S.-ROK Nuclear Consultative Group formed

    Deterrence

    Washington Declaration gives Seoul role in nuclear planning. Kim later calls this an 'offensive act.'

  15. Hwasan-31 tactical warhead unveiled

    Military Display

    Kim poses with miniaturized nuclear warheads designed for battlefield use on short-range missiles.

  16. Record year: 90 missile launches

    Weapons Test

    North Korea conducts unprecedented testing surge, including ICBMs and missiles over Japanese territory.

  17. Kim unveils Five-Year Defense Plan

    Policy Shift

    Calls for tactical nukes, 15,000 km ICBM, hypersonic missiles, nuclear submarines, and MIRV technology by 2026.

  18. Hanoi summit collapses without deal

    Diplomacy

    Trump walks out after Kim demands full sanctions relief for partial dismantlement of Yongbyon. Negotiations effectively end.

  19. Trump-Kim summit in Singapore

    Diplomacy

    First meeting between sitting U.S. president and North Korean leader. Vague commitment to 'complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.'

  20. North Korea displays missiles at military parade

    Military Display

    Pyongyang showcases Hwasong-15 ICBM and other weapons before diplomatic outreach begins.

Historical Context

3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

October 16-28, 1962

Cuban Missile Crisis (1962)

The Soviet Union secretly deployed nuclear missiles to Cuba, 90 miles from Florida. U.S. reconnaissance discovered them, President Kennedy imposed a naval blockade, and for 13 days the world teetered on the brink of nuclear war. Soviet Premier Khrushchev ultimately agreed to remove the missiles in exchange for a U.S. pledge not to invade Cuba and secret removal of U.S. missiles from Turkey.

Then

Crisis resolved through backchannel diplomacy and mutual concessions, narrowly avoiding war.

Now

Led to the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (1963), hotline between Washington and Moscow, and lessons about giving adversaries face-saving exits.

Why this matters now

North Korea today resembles a slow-motion Cuban Missile Crisis—but one where diplomacy failed. Kim won't give up his missiles, and unlike 1962, there's no obvious deal that satisfies both sides. The lesson: managing the threat may be more realistic than eliminating it.

2003-present

Iran Nuclear Program and JCPOA (2003-2025)

After Iran's secret nuclear program was exposed in 2002, years of negotiations led to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which froze Iran's program in exchange for sanctions relief. Trump withdrew in 2018, reimposing sanctions. Iran resumed enrichment and is now closer to weapons capability than ever. Attempts to revive the deal have stalled.

Then

JCPOA successfully froze Iran's program from 2015-2018 through verification and economic incentives.

Now

Deal's collapse demonstrated that agreements without sustained political commitment are fragile. Iran's breakout time shortened dramatically.

Why this matters now

Shows that partial deals can work—but only if all sides stick to them. North Korea won't accept JCPOA-style inspections, and the Trump-Kim summits proved charisma can't substitute for details. Unlike Iran, North Korea already has the bomb.

1972-1998

Pakistan Nuclear Weapons Development (1972-1998)

After India's 1974 nuclear test, Pakistan pursued its own bomb through uranium enrichment and plutonium production, receiving covert Chinese assistance. Despite U.S. sanctions and nonproliferation pressure, Pakistan tested nuclear weapons in 1998, becoming the first Muslim-majority nuclear state. International community eventually accepted the fait accompli.

Then

Pakistan faced sanctions but achieved nuclear deterrence against India.

Now

World adapted to Pakistan as a nuclear state. A.Q. Khan network later proliferated technology to Libya, Iran, and North Korea.

Why this matters now

North Korea is following Pakistan's playbook: defying sanctions, accepting isolation, and banking that the world will eventually accommodate a nuclear-armed DPRK. Pakistan's A.Q. Khan even helped North Korea's program. The lesson: once you have the bomb, rollback becomes nearly impossible.

Sources

(26)