Russian strikes continue as third round of trilateral talks set for Geneva next week
February 12th, 2026: Third Round Talks Set for Geneva Next WeekNew here? Follow stories to track developments over time. Create a free account to get updates when stories you care about change.
Russia continues massive winter strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure and civilians amid advancing trilateral peace talks. A week after the February 4-5 Abu Dhabi round yielded a 314-POW exchange and US-Russia military dialogue, Russia launched major attacks including 408 drones/39 missiles on February 6-7 targeting energy substations and the February 13 assault with 219 drones/24 missiles killing one in Odesa. Zelenskyy accused Russia of bad faith while confirming a third round of talks for next week.
Diplomacy progresses with third-round talks scheduled in Geneva/Switzerland February 17-18, led by Kremlin aide Vladimir Medinsky for Russia and Rustem Umerov for Ukraine. Zelenskyy urged Trump to pressure Putin as talks shift from Abu Dhabi to Europe amid stalled territorial disputes and CSIS casualty warnings. Putin leverages strikes for concessions as US envoys push for breakthroughs before a reported June deadline.
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"One cannot negotiate in good faith with a beast that gnaws at your vitals while extending its paw in friendship. Putin's twin-edged strategy—burning civilians by night, signing protocols by day—proves once more that tyrants respect only the language of resolve, not the syntax of summits."
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Ukraine's military has evolved from 200,000 troops pre-war to a battle-hardened force facing a war of attrition.
Russia's military has suffered catastrophic casualties while grinding forward through eastern Ukraine.
Trump's controversial $1 billion international conflict resolution body launched at Davos, positioned as potential alternative to UN.
Kremlin confirms third trilateral talks for February 17-18 in Switzerland/Geneva; Vladimir Medinsky to lead Russian delegation as talks shift to Europe. Zelenskyy calls on Trump to pressure Russia amid stalled territorial issues.
Russia launched second massive post-pause strike targeting nuclear power substations after brief energy lull; Ukrainian defenses strained as attacks resume.
Strikes continue immediately after Abu Dhabi talks conclude with POW swap; Russia shows no de-escalation amid diplomacy.
Second round of US-Russia-Ukraine talks ended constructively; sides exchanged 314 POWs (157 each, first in 5 months). Rustem Umerov called discussions 'meaningful and productive'; Witkoff expects further progress.
Amid Abu Dhabi talks, US and Russia agreed to restore high-level military contacts suspended since 2021, first in over 4 years. EUCOM: Channel aids 'lasting peace' efforts; Gen. Grynkewich represented US.
Russia fired 71 missiles and 450 drones targeting energy infrastructure across five regions in temperatures as low as -23°C, ending Trump's energy ceasefire. Ukraine shot down 38 missiles and 412 drones. At least 10 wounded, 1,170 residential buildings in Kyiv left without heating. Zelenskyy accused Russia of exploiting the pause to stockpile missiles.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed second round of trilateral talks will take place February 4-5 in Abu Dhabi, pushed back from February 1 to allow schedule adjustments. Date confirmed despite ongoing strikes.
White House Press Secretary Carolyn Leavitt said Trump was 'not surprised' Putin failed to heed ceasefire request but would 'continue to actively pursue diplomacy.' Russia launched massive strikes hours after Trump announced the pause had ended.
The one-week energy ceasefire announced by Trump on January 29 reached its expiration around February 1-2. Kremlin indicated the pause expires Sunday. Zelenskyy clarified 'There is no ceasefire. There is no official agreement on a ceasefire' and noted no direct Russia-Ukraine dialogue occurred on the arrangement.
Zelenskyy announced second round of trilateral talks will take place Wednesday-Thursday (February 4-5) in Abu Dhabi, not February 1 as previously scheduled. Ukraine 'ready for a substantive discussion' and 'interested in ensuring that the outcome brings us closer to a real and dignified end to the war.'
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated the unilateral energy ceasefire with Ukraine lasted only until February 1, contradicting Ukrainian expectations it would last until around February 6-7. Russia prepared for resumed strikes on infrastructure.
Kremlin revealed that Trump-announced energy ceasefire would expire Sunday (around February 1-2), with no official Russian confirmation of the arrangement. Over 1,300 Kyiv apartment buildings remained without heat as ceasefire expired.
Trump declared he "personally asked President Putin not to fire into Kyiv and various towns for a week and he agreed to do that" during Cabinet meeting. Zelenskyy expressed gratitude for protecting Ukrainian cities during extreme winter. Kremlin neither confirmed nor denied the arrangement.
Ukraine's foreign minister cited 'progress' in latest Abu Dhabi talks, saying Russia sent more serious negotiators. Next round confirmed for Sunday, February 1 in UAE. Kremlin acknowledged talks were constructive but major challenges remain on territorial issues.
710,000 people remain without electricity in Kyiv as energy crisis continues following Russian infrastructure attacks amid freezing conditions. EU provides 447 generators to Kyiv, Kropyvnytskyi and frontline communities.
Independent analysis warns total casualties (killed, injured, missing) on both sides could reach 2 million by spring 2026, with Russia suffering largest troop deaths of any major power since WWII.
Center for Strategic and International Studies report estimates Russia has suffered 1.2 million casualties (275,000-325,000 killed), Ukraine 500,000-600,000 (up to 140,000 killed). Combined total approaching 2 million—Russia's losses exceed any major power since WWII.
Zelenskyy calls two-day talks "constructive" with discussions on war parameters. All parties agree to report to capitals and meet again February 1 in Abu Dhabi. Territorial issues remain unresolved.
Ukraine, Russia, and United States hold first trilateral negotiations in nearly four years of war. Talks focus on "possible parameters for ending the war" including territorial issues and security guarantees.
Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner hold four-hour overnight talks with Putin at Kremlin. Discussions described as "frank, constructive" but territorial issues remain unresolved.
Trump unveils Board of Peace at World Economic Forum with 19 countries signing founding charter. Major Western allies skip ceremony amid concerns about replacing UN. Trump declares "abnormal hatred" between Putin and Zelenskyy barrier to peace.
Russian bombardment leaves 5,635 residential buildings—nearly half of Kyiv—without heating or water in -14°C temperatures. Over a million people affected in worst crisis of four-year war.
Trump told Reuters that Putin "is ready to make a deal" while "Ukraine is less ready," responding "Zelenskyy" when asked who's holding up negotiations. Kremlin agreed with assessment. Ukrainian and European officials rejected claim, noting Ukraine has agreed to multiple U.S. proposals while Russia has agreed to none.
Russia uses nuclear-capable Oreshnik hypersonic missile for only second time in war, targeting underground gas storage near Poland border. Attack includes 250 drones and dozens of missiles, killing at least four.
Russia killed two in Kyiv—first capital deaths of 2026—striking medical facility ahead of peace talks.
Five Russian missiles hit Kharkiv's energy infrastructure, causing "very serious damage" to heating and water systems in freezing temperatures. At least one civilian injured.
First meeting of Coalition of the Willing national security advisors held in Ukraine to discuss peace proposals and security guarantees.
Zelenskyy named military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov as presidential chief of staff, replacing Andriy Yermak. The appointment signals focus on security and peace talks.
Zelenskyy nominated Mykhailo Fedorov, drone and digitalization specialist, as defense minister amid military restructuring.
Trump held two-hour phone call with Putin discussing "a lot of points."
Trump and Zelenskyy met; Trump claimed teams are "maybe very close" to peace deal.
Russia launched 653 drones, 36 cruise missiles, 17 ballistic missiles, hitting power infrastructure.
Leaked recording reveals Trump envoy advising Russian official on how to pitch peace plan.
Russia's largest single-night drone attack hit Ukraine with over 800 Shahed drones.
Putin declared Russian-Ukrainian terms "absolutely contradictory," rejecting unconditional ceasefire.
Ukraine struck Russian airfields deep inside Russia using truck-transported drones.
American and Russian officials met in Saudi Arabia without Ukrainian representatives present.
Trump inaugurated as 47th U.S. president, promising to end the Ukraine war quickly.
Russian forces captured the strategic city of Kurakhove in eastern Ukraine.
Russian forces seized the long-held city after reducing it to a sprawling ruin.
Ukraine's surprise cross-border offensive captured 1,250 sq km of Russian territory before stalling.
Zelenskyy replaced Commander Zaluzhnyi with General Oleksandr Syrsky amid strategic disagreements.
Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, marking the largest European land war since World War II.
Discussed by: CSIS, The Washington Post, NPR analysts covering U.S. security guarantees proposal
Trump pressures both sides into accepting a frozen conflict along current battle lines, with Ukraine receiving 15-year U.S. security guarantees (far short of the 50 years Kyiv requested). Russia keeps its 20% territorial gains but doesn't get the full Donbas region Putin demands. Ukraine doesn't join NATO but gets Western arms commitments. The deal holds for a few years but neither side considers it legitimate—Putin sees it as a temporary pause before taking more territory, Zelenskyy sees it as buying time to rebuild defenses. Frequent violations and skirmishes continue. This scenario appeals to Trump's desire for a quick diplomatic win but satisfies neither Moscow nor Kyiv's fundamental goals.
Discussed by: CSIS assessment of Putin's 2026 strategy, Atlantic Council analysis of Russian military capacity
The 90% complete peace plan falls apart over territorial disputes—Putin demands all of Donbas including areas Russia hasn't captured, Zelenskyy refuses to cede land where his forces still fight. Russia responds by escalating its drone and missile campaign beyond even January 5's intensity, targeting Kyiv systematically to force capitulation. Putin bets Trump will cut Ukraine aid if talks fail, leaving Kyiv vulnerable. Ukraine's intercept rates continue declining as Russia floods attacks with 1,000+ drones weekly. Energy infrastructure collapses. Millions flee westward. Trump blames Zelenskyy for being unreasonable. European allies scramble to fill the U.S. aid gap but can't match previous support levels. The war grinds into late 2026 with Russia making incremental gains.
Discussed by: Ukrainian officials quoted in CBS News and PBS NewsHour discussing compromise positions
Facing Trump's implied threat to cut aid and Russia's relentless attacks on civilian infrastructure, Zelenskyy accepts a deal he publicly calls unjust but necessary. Ukraine cedes significant eastern territory—not all of Donbas but more than current battle lines—in exchange for rapid-track EU membership, long-term U.S. and European security guarantees, and massive reconstruction funding. Ukraine agrees to neutrality (no NATO) but maintains a large, Western-armed military. Putin declares victory domestically, though he didn't achieve his maximum goals. Ukrainian public outcry is intense; Zelenskyy's approval craters but he argues it saved the nation from collapse. The agreement holds uneasily, with both sides preparing for potential future conflict.
Discussed by: Analysts citing December 2025 VTsIOM polling showing majority of Russians expect war to end in 2026
After over 1 million casualties, a state pollster finds a majority of Russians expect the war to end in 2026—a signal the Kremlin may be testing public acceptance of a settlement. Economic strain from sanctions, oil production disruptions from Ukrainian strikes, and the unsustainability of losing 1,500+ soldiers daily creates internal pressure. Putin accepts a deal closer to current lines without getting all of Donbas, selling it domestically as having achieved the core goal of protecting Russian-speakers and blocking NATO expansion. He keeps Crimea and most occupied territory but doesn't get the unconditional victory he initially sought. This scenario requires Putin to judge that continuing the war costs more than an imperfect peace.
Discussed by: US officials describing Abu Dhabi talks as 'surpassing expectations'; Ukrainian officials calling discussions 'constructive'
The unprecedented direct trilateral format—with US mediators in the room alongside Russian and Ukrainian negotiators—creates breakthrough momentum that bilateral talks never achieved. By late February or March 2026, the parties produce a framework agreement: Ukraine cedes some eastern territory but far less than Russia's maximal demands, receives ironclad 20-year Western security guarantees including US participation, gets fast-tracked EU membership, and maintains a large Western-armed military. Russia accepts less than full Donbas control but declares victory over NATO expansion. A frozen conflict with peacekeepers monitoring a demilitarized zone emerges. Both leaders sell it domestically as the best achievable outcome. Trump claims diplomatic triumph. The deal holds uneasily but stops the bloodshed.
Discussed by: Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov reaffirming full Donbas withdrawal as 'important condition'; Ukrainian officials rejecting territorial concessions
The February 1 Abu Dhabi round breaks down when Russia demands Ukraine withdraw from all of Donbas—including areas Ukraine still holds—while Ukraine refuses to cede land where its forces actively fight. Putin calculates that Trump will cut aid when talks fail, leaving Ukraine vulnerable. Russia dramatically escalates energy attacks beyond even January's devastation, targeting Kyiv systematically with 500+ drone nights to force capitulation through civilian suffering. Ukraine's intercept capacity collapses under the volume. Millions flee westward as infrastructure fails. Trump publicly blames Zelenskyy for being "unreasonable," suspends new aid packages. European allies scramble to compensate but fall short. By summer 2026, Russia makes significant territorial gains as Ukraine's military capacity degrades without US support.
Discussed by: Atlantic Council analysts, Ukrainian officials warning of ceasefire violations
Russia violates the one-week energy ceasefire announced January 29, launching new strikes on infrastructure before or immediately after the February 1 Abu Dhabi talks. Trump—already blaming Zelenskyy publicly for holding up negotiations—uses the collapse as justification to drastically reduce U.S. military aid. Without American support, Ukraine's air defense capacity degrades further as Russia intensifies its drone campaign beyond even January's 4,400-drone-per-month average. European allies scramble to compensate but lack the military industrial capacity to match previous U.S. support levels. By late winter 2026, Russia makes significant territorial gains in Donbas as Ukrainian forces run short of ammunition and intercept rates plummet below 70%. Zelenskyy faces intense domestic pressure to accept a punishing peace deal ceding substantial territory.
Discussed by: Ukrainian and Western officials quoted in Euromaidan Press, February 3, 2026
Following Russia's violation of the Trump-brokered energy ceasefire just days before scheduled talks, Ukraine and Western allies agree on a new military response framework: if Russia violates any future ceasefire agreement, NATO allies will provide Ukraine with advanced weapons systems and authorization to strike deep into Russian territory within 72 hours. The plan includes pre-positioned long-range missiles and lifting all targeting restrictions. When Russia next violates a negotiated pause, the West executes the plan, dramatically escalating Ukraine's strike capabilities. This shifts the calculus for Putin, who must now weigh whether violating ceasefires is worth immediate Western military escalation.
The Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in December 1979 to prop up a communist government, triggering a decade-long insurgency. The U.S. and allies armed Afghan mujahideen fighters with weapons including Stinger missiles that neutralized Soviet air superiority. What began as a quick intervention became a grinding war of attrition that killed 15,000 Soviet soldiers and wounded 50,000 while devastating Afghanistan. Soviet forces withdrew in defeat by February 1989.
Soviet withdrawal led to civil war and eventual Taliban takeover of Afghanistan.
The war accelerated the Soviet Union's economic decline and contributed to its collapse in 1991, demonstrating the limits of military power against determined insurgency backed by external support.
Like Afghanistan showed the Soviets, the Ukraine war reveals limits of Russian conventional military power when the invaded nation receives massive Western support. Both conflicts featured a larger power invading a neighbor, facing unexpectedly fierce resistance, suffering unsustainable casualties, and discovering that military superiority doesn't guarantee political victory.
North Korea's invasion of South Korea in June 1950 triggered a three-year war involving Chinese and Soviet support for the North and U.S.-led UN forces supporting the South. After massive casualties on all sides and territorial gains that ultimately left both sides near the original border, an armistice was signed in July 1953—not a peace treaty, just a ceasefire. The war killed an estimated 3 million people and left Korea divided at the 38th parallel.
The armistice created a heavily militarized DMZ and froze the territorial status quo with no formal peace.
Seventy years later, North and South Korea remain technically at war, maintaining massive military forces and periodic tensions. The frozen conflict has defined the peninsula's geopolitics for generations.
A potential Ukraine settlement along current battle lines without resolving the fundamental territorial dispute would mirror Korea's armistice—freezing the conflict without ending it. Both sides would remain armed and hostile, with periodic escalations likely. The comparison raises the question: would a quick ceasefire create lasting peace or just a 70-year frozen conflict?
After years of negotiations, the U.S. and North Vietnam signed the Paris Peace Accords in January 1973, which were supposed to end American involvement while preserving South Vietnam. The agreement included a ceasefire, withdrawal of U.S. forces, and provisions for South Vietnamese self-determination. Nixon and Kissinger hailed it as "peace with honor." Within two years, North Vietnam violated the accords, invaded the South, and unified Vietnam under communist rule in 1975 as the U.S. declined to re-intervene.
The accords allowed the U.S. to withdraw while claiming to have secured South Vietnam's future, but fighting resumed almost immediately.
South Vietnam collapsed completely within 26 months, proving the peace agreement was a face-saving mechanism for American withdrawal rather than a durable settlement.
Trump's push for a quick Ukraine deal raises the Vietnam parallel: is this a genuine peace or a face-saving exit that leaves Ukraine vulnerable to future Russian aggression? Like Paris 1973, any agreement that doesn't address the fundamental power imbalance and relies on Western security guarantees that may not be enforced could simply delay rather than prevent Ukraine's defeat.