For fifty-three years, binding agreements constrained the world's two largest nuclear arsenals. That era ended on February 5, 2026, when the New START treaty expired at midnight without a successor, as confirmed by President Trump who rejected a Russian extension offer and directed work on a new pact including China. The United States and Russia now face no legal limits on their combined stockpile of roughly 10,700 nuclear warheads.
The collapse removes verification mechanisms that provided early warning against surprise buildups—on-site inspections, data exchanges, and notification requirements that both sides used to reduce miscalculation risks. The Kremlin expressed regret over the expiration but pledged a responsible approach, while Russia's nuclear doctrine lowered in November 2024 and China's arsenal growing by roughly 100 warheads annually mark a structural shift toward a more volatile nuclear landscape.
14 events
Latest: February 5th, 2026 · 4 months ago
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February 2026
Trump Rejects Extension, Calls for New Pact
LatestStatement
President Trump announced he will not extend New START, calling it a 'badly negotiated deal,' and directed nuclear experts to pursue a new, improved treaty potentially including China.
Kremlin Regrets Expiration, Pledges Restraint
Statement
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov expressed regret over New START's end but affirmed Russia will act responsibly based on national interests and security analysis.
New START Expires
Treaty Expiration
New START expires at midnight, ending 53 years of binding nuclear arms limits between the superpowers. No successor agreement exists.
January 2026
Trump Dismisses Treaty Expiration
Statement
In an interview with The New York Times, Trump says of New START: 'If it expires, it expires. We'll just do a better agreement.'
September 2025
Putin Proposes One-Year Voluntary Extension
Proposal
Putin offers to maintain New START limits for one year after expiration if the US does the same and abandons space-based missile defense plans.
November 2024
Russia Lowers Nuclear Use Threshold
Doctrine Change
Putin signs revised nuclear doctrine allowing nuclear response to conventional attacks that threaten Russian or Belarusian sovereignty, including from non-nuclear states backed by nuclear powers.
June 2023
US Revokes Russian Inspector Visas
Response
The State Department cancels visas for Russian nuclear inspectors as a 'lawful countermeasure' to Moscow's treaty suspension.
February 2023
Russia Suspends New START Participation
Suspension
Putin announces Russia will suspend participation in New START, halting inspections and data exchanges, while continuing to observe warhead limits.
February 2021
New START Extended for Five Years
Treaty
Presidents Biden and Putin agree to extend New START until February 2026, preserving limits and verification measures.
August 2019
US Withdraws from INF Treaty
Treaty Collapse
The Trump administration formally withdraws from the INF Treaty, citing Russian violations. Both countries begin developing previously banned intermediate-range missiles.
April 2010
New START Treaty Signed
Treaty
President Obama and Russian President Medvedev sign New START in Prague, limiting each side to 1,550 deployed strategic warheads and 700 deployed delivery systems.
July 1991
START I Achieves Largest Arms Reductions
Treaty
The United States and Soviet Union sign the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, requiring the largest arms control reductions in history—limiting each side to 6,000 warheads.
December 1987
INF Treaty Eliminates Intermediate-Range Missiles
Treaty
Reagan and Gorbachev sign the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, eliminating an entire class of ground-launched missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers.
May 1972
SALT I Treaty Signed
Treaty
President Nixon and Soviet leader Brezhnev sign the first Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty in Moscow, establishing the framework for superpower nuclear constraints.
Historical Context
3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.
1 of 3
October 1962
Cuban Missile Crisis (1962)
The Soviet Union deployed nuclear missiles to Cuba, 90 miles from Florida. For 13 days, President Kennedy and Premier Khrushchev confronted the closest approach to nuclear war in history. Kennedy established a naval quarantine; Khrushchev agreed to withdraw the missiles in exchange for US pledges not to invade Cuba and secret removal of US missiles from Turkey.
Then
The crisis ended with Soviet missiles removed and a direct communication 'hotline' established between Washington and Moscow.
Now
Both superpowers, sobered by near-catastrophe, signed the Limited Test Ban Treaty in 1963 and accelerated arms control efforts that produced SALT I in 1972.
Why this matters now
The crisis demonstrates that existential nuclear danger can catalyze rapid arms control progress. Today's treaty collapse occurred during elevated nuclear risks; a future crisis could similarly force negotiations that seem impossible in peacetime.
2 of 3
May 1972
SALT I Breakthrough (1972)
After two and a half years of negotiations during the Vietnam War and broader superpower tensions, Nixon and Brezhnev signed the first Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty in Moscow. The agreement froze intercontinental and submarine-launched ballistic missile numbers and limited anti-ballistic missile sites to two per country.
Then
SALT I established the framework for superpower arms control and launched a period of détente.
Now
The treaty architecture—verification, data exchange, bilateral commissions—became the template for every subsequent agreement through New START.
Why this matters now
SALT I was negotiated during extreme US-Soviet tensions, proving that arms control is possible even between adversaries. The 53-year framework it established has now ended; rebuilding equivalent institutions will require similar sustained diplomatic effort.
3 of 3
February-August 2019
INF Treaty Collapse (2019)
The Trump administration withdrew from the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, citing Russian deployment of the SSC-8 cruise missile in violation of the treaty. Russia denied violations and announced reciprocal suspension. Within months, both sides tested previously banned intermediate-range systems.
Then
Both nations resumed development and testing of ground-launched intermediate-range missiles.
Now
The collapse left New START as the sole remaining arms control agreement. European allies expressed alarm at the loss of constraints that had protected them since the Cold War.
Why this matters now
The INF collapse previewed the current moment: accusations of violations, withdrawal, and rapid development of unconstrained weapons. New START's expiration follows the same pattern, suggesting that rebuilding arms control requires addressing underlying distrust, not just drafting new treaty text.
