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Cyclone TWO-26 approaches Andhra Pradesh coast under Orange alert

Cyclone TWO-26 approaches Andhra Pradesh coast under Orange alert

Force in Play

Storm forecast to reach very severe cyclonic strength before landfall October 28

Today: Forecast: intensification into a cyclonic storm

Overview

Updated Yesterday

A tropical cyclone designated TWO-26 is moving toward India's east coast, with the Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System estimating that 356,000 people sit in the path of winds of 120 km/h or stronger. India's Meteorological Department expects the storm to make landfall between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam on the morning of October 28 as a very severe cyclonic storm.

The agency forecasts maximum sustained winds of 115-125 km/h gusting to 140 km/h, plus a storm surge of 1.0-1.5 meters that could flood low-lying areas near Kakinada and Yanam. Andhra Pradesh and neighboring Odisha have begun evacuation and disaster-response preparations ahead of landfall.

Why it matters

A very severe cyclone on India's east coast means wind damage and surge flooding for hundreds of thousands of people this week.

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Key Indicators

356,000
People in path of Category 1+ winds
Estimated population exposed to tropical-storm-force winds of 120 km/h or higher from Cyclone TWO-26.
115–125 km/h
Forecast peak sustained winds at landfall
Gusting to 140 km/h, per India Meteorological Department forecast for an October 28 landfall.
1.0–1.5 m
Forecast storm surge height
Expected to inundate low-lying areas near Kakinada and Yanam districts during landfall.
October 28
Forecast landfall date
Between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh, during the forenoon.

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Organizations Involved

Timeline

7 events Latest: Today
Tap a bar to jump to that date
  1. Forecast landfall between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam

    Upcoming Forecast

    Storm surge of 1.0-1.5 meters expected to inundate low-lying areas near Kakinada and Yanam during landfall forenoon.

  2. Forecast: very severe cyclonic storm strength

    Upcoming Forecast

    IMD expects winds to reach 115-125 km/h gusting to 140 km/h as the storm approaches the Andhra Pradesh coast.

  3. Forecast: intensification into a cyclonic storm

    Today Forecast

    IMD projects the system will reach cyclonic storm strength during the early morning, winds 65-90 km/h.

  4. System intensifies to deep depression

    Intensification

    IMD upgrades the depression to a deep depression, centered at 15.1°N, 91.0°E, and issues Cyclone Alert for Andhra Pradesh.

  5. GDACS issues Orange notification for TWO-26

    Alert

    Global alert system estimates 356,000 people in path of Category 1 winds or higher; flags India's vulnerability as high.

  6. Storm moves west-northwest, winds reach 55-65 km/h

    Intensification

    Deep depression centered at 15.3°N, 89.7°E, about 730 km east-southeast of Visakhapatnam; IMD forecasts cyclonic storm by morning.

  7. Depression forms over Bay of Bengal

    Formation

    A low-pressure system strengthens into a depression; IMD warns fishermen to avoid the east-central Bay of Bengal.

Scenarios

1

Cyclone TWO-26 slams Andhra Pradesh as forecast

Likely Resolves by Oct 28, 2026

Discussed by: India Meteorological Department forecast

The IMD projects landfall between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam on the morning of October 28 with sustained winds of 115-125 km/h. If the storm holds its trajectory and intensity, coastal Andhra Pradesh faces peak winds, a 1.0-1.5 meter surge, and widespread damage to homes, crops, and power lines.

2

Storm weakens before reaching the coast

Possible Resolves by Oct 28, 2026

Discussed by: Regional meteorologists tracking wind shear and dry air

If the system encounters stronger vertical wind shear or dry air as it approaches land, it could weaken below very severe cyclonic storm strength. Wind damage would drop, but heavy rainfall and inland flooding could persist after landfall.

3

Track shifts north, pulling Odisha into the impact zone

Possible Resolves by Oct 28, 2026

Discussed by: IMD probability cone and regional disaster agencies

A more northward movement would shift the storm's center toward Srikakulam district or the Odisha coast, moving the heaviest impacts north of Visakhapatnam. Odisha has already activated its disaster mitigation machinery in anticipation.

Historical Context

3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

October 2014

Cyclone Hudhud (2014)

A very severe cyclonic storm struck Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh on October 12, 2014, with peak winds near 185 km/h, the strongest cyclone to hit that city in over a century. At least 60 people died across Andhra Pradesh and Odisha, and damage ran into the billions of dollars.

Then

Visakhapatnam's airport, port, and power grid were badly damaged; reconstruction took years.

Now

The storm pushed Andhra Pradesh to upgrade cyclone shelters, warning systems, and evacuation planning along its coast.

Why this matters now

Hudhud struck nearly the same stretch of coast in the same month. The region's current readiness reflects lessons learned from that storm.

October 2013

Cyclone Phailin (2013)

A very severe cyclonic storm made landfall near Gopalpur, Odisha on October 12, 2013, with winds exceeding 200 km/h. Indian authorities evacuated roughly a million people from the coast before it arrived.

Then

About 45 people died — a fraction of the toll from comparable earlier storms.

Now

Phailin established mass evacuation as the standard playbook for Indian cyclone response.

Why this matters now

The 2013 storm proved that early, large-scale evacuation saves lives, the same strategy Andhra Pradesh is applying to TWO-26.

October 1999

1999 Odisha Super Cyclone

A super cyclonic storm hit the Odisha coast on October 29, 1999, with winds up to 260 km/h and a storm surge reaching six meters in places. Roughly 10,000 people died, most by drowning.

Then

The disaster overwhelmed local response, with survivors facing weeks without clean water, food, or shelter.

Now

It prompted India to build a modern cyclone early-warning network and shelters, and led to the creation of Odisha's State Disaster Management Authority.

Why this matters now

It remains the worst-case benchmark for Bay of Bengal cyclones and the reason authorities evacuate coastal populations so aggressively today.

Sources

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