Pakistan and Afghanistan locked in escalating cross-border military cycle

Overview

Pakistan and Afghanistan are now in open conflict after a ceasefire agreed in October 2025 collapsed amid escalating cross-border violence. Pakistan launched air strikes on Afghan soil five days ago in Nangarhar and Paktika provinces—killing at least 17 civilians according to Kabul—and escalated dramatically today with warplanes bombing Kabul, Kandahar, and Paktia provinces. Pakistan's Defence Minister Khawaja Asif declared that the country would wage 'open war' against the Taliban government, citing its alleged sheltering of Pakistani Taliban (Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, or TTP) militants responsible for a surge in attacks inside Pakistan, including a February 6 mosque bombing in Islamabad that killed 32.

In This Story

3 Videos

5 People

Afghanistan retaliates, border war reignites

3 Context

India's Balakot airstrike on Pakistan (2019)

Key Indicators

55 (Afghan claim)

Pakistani soldiers killed

Afghanistan's Ministry of Defence claims 55 Pakistani soldiers died in recent clashes

12+27

Pakistani casualties reported

Pakistan says 12 soldiers killed, 27 injured in latest fighting

17+

Killed in Feb 22 strikes

Afghanistan reports at least 17 dead, with six more missing under rubble, including women and children

Killed in Islamabad bombing

A suicide bomber attacked a mosque in Islamabad on February 6, the deadliest attack in the capital since 2008

~70

Killed in Oct 2025 clashes

Combined death toll from the border fighting that preceded the now-collapsed Doha ceasefire

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People Involved

Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir

Chief of Defence Forces and Chief of Army Staff, Pakistan (Directing escalated air campaign including strikes on Kabul amid 'open war' declaration)

Shehbaz Sharif

Prime Minister of Pakistan (Leading government amid declaration of open war on Taliban Afghanistan)

Noor Wali Mehsud

Leader (Emir) of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) (Believed alive after surviving October 2025 airstrike targeting him in Kabul; whereabouts uncertain)

Hibatullah Akhundzada

Supreme Leader of the Taliban government in Afghanistan (Facing Pakistani 'open war' declaration and major airstrikes on Afghan cities)

Khawaja Muhammad Asif

Defence Minister of Pakistan (Declared 'open war' against Taliban Afghanistan)

Organizations Involved

Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

Militant organization

Status: Core issue behind Pakistan's 'open war' declaration against Taliban government

An umbrella organization of militant groups based along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border that seeks to overthrow the Pakistani state and impose its interpretation of Islamic law.

Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (Taliban government)

De facto government

Status: Target of Pakistan's 'open war' declaration and major airstrikes on capital and other cities

The Taliban government that took power in Afghanistan in August 2021 after the withdrawal of United States and NATO forces.

Timeline

Pakistan strikes seven targets in Afghanistan
Military

Pakistan's military conducted air strikes on seven camps and hideouts in Afghanistan's Nangarhar and Paktika provinces, targeting TTP and Islamic State affiliates. Afghanistan reported at least 17 killed including women and children, with six missing under rubble. Kabul called it a sovereignty violation and vowed an 'appropriate and calculated response.'
6 days ago • Early morning
Bannu convoy attack kills two Pakistani soldiers
Attack

A suicide bomber struck a security convoy in Bannu district, killing two soldiers including a lieutenant colonel, adding to the string of attacks that precipitated the air strikes.
7 days ago
Suicide attack on Bajaur security post kills 11 soldiers
Attack

An explosive-laden vehicle rammed a security post in Bajaur district, killing 11 soldiers and a child. Pakistan summoned the Afghan envoy and blamed TTP fighters operating from Afghan territory.
February 17th, 2026
Suicide bomber kills 32 at Islamabad mosque
Attack

A suicide bomber attacked the Khadija Tul Kubra mosque in Islamabad during noon prayers, killing 32 worshippers and wounding 170. The Islamic State group claimed responsibility. It was the deadliest attack in Islamabad since the 2008 Marriott Hotel bombing.
February 6th, 2026
Heavy border fire exchange kills at least five
Military

Afghan and Pakistani forces exchanged heavy fire along the border, with Afghanistan reporting five killed, further eroding the Doha ceasefire.
December 6th, 2025
Asim Munir becomes Chief of Defence Forces
Political

Pakistan's parliament created the new position of Chief of Defence Forces, consolidating all military branches under General Asim Munir—the architect of the harder line against Afghanistan.
November 29th, 2025
Ceasefire fractures at Chaman-Spin Boldak crossing
Military

Afghan Taliban forces and Pakistani border guards clashed at the key Chaman-Spin Boldak border crossing, the first significant violation of the Doha ceasefire.
November 7th, 2025
Doha ceasefire agreed after Qatar-Turkey mediation
Diplomatic

After roughly 70 deaths on both sides, Pakistan and Afghanistan signed a ceasefire in Doha. The Taliban pledged to halt support for the TTP; both sides agreed not to target each other's forces or civilians.
October 19th, 2025
Afghan Taliban retaliates, attacks Pakistani border posts
Military

Afghanistan launched attacks on multiple Pakistani military positions along the border, killing at least 23 Pakistani soldiers in the most severe Taliban offensive against Pakistan's military.
October 12th, 2025
Pakistan strikes Kabul, apparently targeting TTP leader
Military

Pakistan launched an unprecedented airstrike on Kabul targeting TTP leader Noor Wali Mehsud, following a TTP attack on soldiers in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The strike triggered the most intense border fighting in decades.
October 9th, 2025
Pakistan launches third round of air strikes in Afghanistan
Military

Pakistan conducted further airstrikes in Paktika province, drawing a Taliban warning of retaliation and marking an acceleration of cross-border military operations.
December 25th, 2024
Pakistan strikes Afghanistan after border attack
Military

Pakistan Air Force struck targets in Afghanistan's Khost and Paktika provinces, killing eight people including women and children according to the Afghan government. It was the second round of Pakistani airstrikes on Afghan soil since the Taliban took power.
March 18th, 2024

Scenarios

Afghanistan retaliates, border war reignites

Discussed by: Al Jazeera analysts, Afghan defence officials, and the Middle East Institute

Afghanistan follows through on its threat of an 'appropriate and calculated response,' striking Pakistani border posts or military targets as it did in October 2025. This triggers a new round of tit-for-tat escalation, with both sides mobilizing along the border. The Doha ceasefire framework collapses entirely, and mediators—Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey—scramble to prevent a full-scale conflict between a nuclear-armed state and a government controlling battle-hardened fighters.

Diplomatic intervention produces a new ceasefire

Discussed by: Foreign Affairs, Qatar and Saudi mediators, China's special envoy to Afghanistan

After an initial period of heated rhetoric, regional mediators—most likely Qatar and Saudi Arabia, with possible Chinese involvement—broker another ceasefire. This time, the agreement includes more specific enforcement mechanisms, potentially involving verified Taliban action against TTP camps. However, the fundamental structural problem remains: the Taliban is either unwilling or unable to fully suppress the TTP, which shares its ideology and ethnic base.

Pakistan normalizes cross-border strikes as permanent policy

Discussed by: The Washington Institute, Pakistani military analysts, Eurasia Review

Pakistan's military establishment, now consolidated under Field Marshal Asim Munir, concludes that diplomatic pressure on the Taliban will not stop TTP attacks and adopts a doctrine of regular cross-border strikes—similar to Turkey's decades-long campaign against Kurdish militant groups in Iraq. Afghanistan's conventional military inferiority limits its response options, but the Taliban could retaliate asymmetrically by increasing covert support for TTP operations inside Pakistan, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of violence.

Taliban cracks down on TTP, tensions gradually subside

Discussed by: CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies), Chinese mediators, Pakistan's Foreign Ministry

Facing sustained military pressure, trade blockades, and international isolation, the Taliban leadership makes a strategic calculation to distance itself from the TTP. Kabul arrests or expels TTP commanders, dismantles known camps, and provides verifiable evidence to Pakistan. This requires the Taliban to overcome deep ideological and tribal ties to the TTP—a difficult but not unprecedented move, as governments have historically abandoned allied militant groups when the cost of sheltering them exceeded the benefits.

Historical Context

India's Balakot airstrike on Pakistan (2019)

February 2019

What Happened

After a suicide bombing killed 40 Indian paramilitary personnel in Kashmir, India sent warplanes across the border to strike what it said was a militant training camp near Balakot, Pakistan. It was the first Indian airstrike on Pakistani soil since the 1971 war. Pakistan retaliated the next day, shooting down an Indian jet and capturing its pilot.

Outcome

Short Term

The captured pilot was returned within days. Both sides de-escalated under international pressure, but neither backed down from their positions.

Long Term

The strike established a precedent that cross-border air strikes against militant targets could occur between nuclear-armed neighbors without triggering full-scale war—lowering the threshold for future such operations across South Asia.

Why It's Relevant Today

Pakistan is now employing the same logic India used at Balakot: striking targets on another country's soil in response to terrorist attacks originating from that territory. The parallel illustrates how cross-border strikes are becoming a normalized tool in South Asian security dynamics.

Turkey's cross-border operations against the Kurdistan Workers' Party in Iraq (1990s–present)

1983–present

What Happened

Turkey has conducted cross-border military operations against Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) bases in northern Iraq for over four decades, ranging from air strikes to ground incursions involving tens of thousands of troops. Operation Hammer in 1997 alone deployed 50,000 soldiers into Iraqi territory.

Outcome

Short Term

Individual operations disrupted PKK logistics and killed commanders, but the group consistently reconstituted itself across the border.

Long Term

Turkey established a permanent military presence in northern Iraq, with dozens of bases and outposts. The operations became a normalized, decades-long feature of regional security, never fully eliminating the PKK until the group's own leadership announced dissolution in 2025.

Why It's Relevant Today

Pakistan's repeated strikes against TTP targets in Afghanistan mirror Turkey's long campaign in Iraq. If Pakistan adopts a similar doctrine of permanent cross-border operations, the conflict could become a chronic feature of the region rather than an acute crisis with a resolution.

Pakistan's military operations in Waziristan against TTP (2009–2014)

2009–2014

What Happened

Pakistan launched major military offensives in its own tribal areas to dislodge the TTP, including Operation Rah-e-Rast in Swat and Operation Zarb-e-Azb in North Waziristan. Over 100,000 troops were deployed, and millions of civilians were displaced as the military fought to reclaim territory the TTP had governed as a de facto state.

Outcome

Short Term

The operations dismantled TTP's territorial control inside Pakistan and sharply reduced attacks in major cities.

Long Term

Surviving TTP fighters relocated across the border into Afghanistan, where they rebuilt under the protection of the Afghan Taliban. The military success inside Pakistan planted the seeds of the current cross-border conflict.

Why It's Relevant Today

Pakistan's own successful military operations pushed the TTP into Afghanistan—creating the exact problem it now demands the Taliban solve. The strikes on Afghan soil are, in a sense, the second chapter of the same counterinsurgency campaign.