Overview
A car bomb killed Lieutenant General Fanil Sarvarov in southern Moscow on December 22, 2025—the latest in a series of targeted assassinations of Russian military officials. Sarvarov, who headed the training department within Russia's general staff, was blown up in the capital city itself, a brazen escalation of Ukraine's shadow war behind Russian lines. Two days later, another bombing in the same Moscow district killed two police officers and the attacker, raising questions about whether the incidents are connected.
This isn't isolated. Since Russia's 2022 invasion, at least a dozen high-ranking Russian officers, defense officials, and collaborators have been killed in explosions, shootings, and poisonings—many in Russia proper. In 2025 alone, three lieutenant generals have been assassinated by car bombs in or near Moscow. Ukraine rarely confirms involvement immediately, but the pattern is clear: Kyiv is taking the fight directly to Russia's military leadership, forcing Moscow to worry about internal security even as it prosecutes the war.
Key Indicators
People Involved
Organizations Involved
Ukraine's main domestic intelligence and counterintelligence service, increasingly conducting offensive operations inside Russia.
The supreme military authority of Russia's Armed Forces, responsible for strategic planning and military operations.
Timeline
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Bombing Kills Two Police Officers in Moscow
AttackTwo traffic police officers, ages 24 and 25, killed by bomb on Yeletskaya Street in same Moscow district where Sarvarov was assassinated two days earlier. Attacker also died in blast.
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Life Sentence for Moskalik Assassin
LegalRussian military court sentences Ignat Kuzin to life imprisonment for assassinating General Moskalik.
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FSB Arrests Suspect in Moskalik Killing
InvestigationRussian FSB arrests Ignat Kuzin, 42, who confessed to planting explosives for Ukrainian intelligence in exchange for $18,000. Ukraine does not comment.
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General Yaroslav Moskalik Killed Near Moscow
AssassinationLieutenant General Yaroslav Moskalik, Deputy Chief of Main Operations Directorate of General Staff, killed by car bomb in Balashikha suburb. FSB arrested suspect who confessed to planting explosives for Ukrainian intelligence.
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General Sarvarov Killed in Moscow
AssassinationTraining department chief killed by car bomb in southern Moscow. Russian officials investigating Ukrainian involvement.
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SBU Claims Kirillov Assassination
AttributionUkrainian security service confirms operation, calls Kirillov a war criminal and legitimate target.
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General Igor Kirillov Killed in Moscow
AssassinationHead of NBC protection troops killed by bomb hidden in electric scooter outside apartment building.
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Vladlen Tatarsky Killed in St. Petersburg
AssassinationPro-war blogger killed by bomb hidden in statue at public event. Russia arrests suspect, blames Ukraine.
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Darya Dugina Killed Near Moscow
AssassinationCar bomb kills ultranationalist's daughter in Moscow suburbs. Russia blames Ukraine; Kyiv denies involvement.
Scenarios
Campaign Intensifies, More Generals Killed
Discussed by: Institute for the Study of War, Ukrainian military analysts
Ukraine escalates the assassination campaign, targeting additional General Staff officers and field commanders. Moscow diverts significant resources to internal security, creating paranoia among military leadership and disrupting command effectiveness. The tactic becomes a force multiplier for Ukraine, imposing costs far beyond conventional battlefield operations. Russia struggles to protect high-value personnel in its own capital.
Russia Retaliates with Counter-Assassinations
Discussed by: Western intelligence assessments, security analysts
Moscow responds by targeting Ukrainian military and intelligence officials in Kyiv and abroad, potentially using nerve agents or radiological materials as signature deterrents. The conflict becomes a mutual assassination campaign, with both sides hunting each other's officers. This would represent dangerous escalation with potential to spill into NATO countries if operations target Ukrainian officials in European exile.
Diplomatic Pressure Forces Ukraine to Scale Back
Discussed by: European diplomatic sources
Western allies, uncomfortable with assassinations in Moscow, privately pressure Kyiv to limit operations as part of eventual ceasefire negotiations. Ukraine reluctantly scales back the campaign in exchange for security guarantees or accelerated NATO integration. The assassinations become a bargaining chip rather than an ongoing tactic, though Ukraine maintains the capability as leverage.
Historical Context
Mossad's Operation Wrath of God (1972-1992)
1972-1992What Happened
After Palestinian terrorists killed Israeli athletes at the 1972 Munich Olympics, Israel's Mossad spent two decades hunting down those responsible. Assassins killed targets across Europe and the Middle East using bombs, shootings, and poisonings. The campaign demonstrated a state's willingness to pursue enemies globally regardless of sovereignty concerns.
Outcome
Short term: Most Munich perpetrators were killed; operation succeeded tactically
Long term: Established deterrent effect but also triggered counter-operations and diplomatic complications
Why It's Relevant
Ukraine's campaign mirrors Israel's willingness to strike enemies anywhere, using intelligence penetration to impose costs far from the battlefield.
Russian Assassinations Abroad (Litvinenko, Skripal)
2006-presentWhat Happened
Russia assassinated defectors and dissidents in the UK using polonium poisoning (Litvinenko, 2006) and Novichok nerve agent (Skripal, 2018). The operations demonstrated Moscow's reach and its willingness to use exotic weapons despite diplomatic fallout. The UK attributed both to Russian state actors.
Outcome
Short term: Targets killed or nearly killed; international outcry and sanctions followed
Long term: Russia undeterred; continues using assassinations as foreign policy tool
Why It's Relevant
Ukraine may be learning from Russia's own playbook—using assassinations as psychological warfare despite international norms against targeted killings.
CIA Targeted Killing Program (2001-2013)
2001-2013What Happened
Following 9/11, the US conducted targeted killings of al-Qaeda and Taliban leaders using drone strikes and special operations raids. The program peaked with Osama bin Laden's assassination in 2011. Legal justification relied on active armed conflict status.
Outcome
Short term: Degraded terrorist networks; killed key leaders including bin Laden
Long term: Created legal precedent for targeted killing during armed conflict; raised sovereignty questions
Why It's Relevant
Ukraine operates under similar armed conflict justification, arguing that killing Russian military officials is legitimate wartime targeting, not terrorism.