1
Alekseyev Dies, Prompting Russian Retaliation
Discussed by: Western security analysts and European officials discussing escalation risks
If Alekseyev succumbs to his injuries, Russia would lose its longest-serving GRU deputy director and a figure central to Wagner Group coordination. Moscow could respond with intensified attacks on Ukrainian intelligence leadership, expanded strikes on Kyiv, or pressure to derail ongoing peace negotiations. The death of such a senior figure—personally linked to operations from election interference to the Skripal poisoning—would mark the highest-profile assassination of the campaign.
2
Campaign Continues, More Generals Targeted
Discussed by: Ukrainian officials and SBU statements warning of ongoing operations
The SBU has stated that 'many more Russian war criminals' remain on their target list. With four generals attacked in 14 months—three fatally—the operational pattern suggests continued strikes against senior military leadership in Moscow. Future targets could include other General Staff officers, military district commanders, or officials tied to war crimes accusations. Each successful operation demonstrates Ukraine can penetrate Moscow's security apparatus.
3
Russia Hardens Security, Attacks Decrease
Discussed by: Russian security officials and state media emphasizing countermeasures
Moscow could significantly enhance protective measures for senior military officials—relocating residences, expanding security details, restricting public appearances. If Russia's Federal Security Service identifies and closes the operational vulnerabilities that enabled these attacks, the assassination campaign could stall. However, the variety of methods used (scooter bombs, car bombs, shooting) suggests multiple operational approaches that complicate defensive measures.
4
Assassinations Disrupt Peace Negotiations
Discussed by: Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and Kremlin officials
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov immediately framed the Alekseyev shooting as demonstrating 'Ukraine's desire to undermine the peace process.' The attack came two days after productive trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi. If Russia uses the assassination campaign as justification to withdraw from negotiations or harden its territorial demands, the path to a ceasefire would narrow significantly.
5
Confession Video Becomes Diplomatic Flashpoint
Discussed by: Ukrainian officials, Western analysts, Russian security establishment
The FSB's release of Korba's confession video claiming SBU recruitment and payment could become a major diplomatic incident if verified or disputed. If Ukraine can demonstrate the video was coerced or fabricated, it could undermine Russian credibility at Geneva talks. Conversely, if independent verification supports the confession, it would validate Russian accusations and potentially derail peace negotiations by providing Moscow justification to withdraw.
6
Serebritskaya Extradition Becomes Negotiation Leverage
Discussed by: Russian security officials, Ukrainian negotiators
The third suspect Zinaida Serebritskaya's presence in Ukraine could become a bargaining chip in peace negotiations. Russia may demand her extradition as a precondition for progress, while Ukraine could use her as leverage to demonstrate good faith or deny her presence entirely. Her fate may become intertwined with broader ceasefire and prisoner exchange discussions.
7
Alekseyev's Recovery Accelerates Retaliation Planning
Discussed by: Russian military and intelligence officials
If Alekseyev makes a full recovery, he will likely become a symbol of Russian resilience and a focal point for Moscow's response. The GRU leadership may accelerate counterintelligence operations against Ukrainian intelligence networks in Europe, or authorize retaliatory strikes against Ukrainian officials. His survival could paradoxically intensify the assassination campaign rather than deter it.
