San Francisco mayor strikes early union deal to avoid layoffs through 2029

Overview

Updated Sep 26

San Francisco's two largest city unions ratified Daniel Lurie's early labor deal, locking in 12% raises from 2027 to 2031 for about 17,000 workers. The deal covers 24,000 workers across 10 unions and guarantees no layoffs through June 30, 2029.

The city's nurses, a separate SEIU unit of about 2,400 members, rejected the offer over safety and staffing concerns. Other units haven't decided, and the city hasn't said how it will fund raises with a projected $450 million shortfall in 2028–29.

Why it matters

The deal secures labor peace for most city workers, but nurses' safety demands and the city's deficit leave the budget unresolved.

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Key Indicators

24,000

Workers covered by the deal

10 unions representing about 70% of the city's roughly 34,000-person workforce. SEIU 1021 and IFPTE Local 21 ratified; nurses rejected; other units undecided.

17,000

Workers in unions that ratified

SEIU 1021 and IFPTE Local 21 members approved the deal by late September.

2,400

Nurses who rejected the deal

The nurses' bargaining committee voted unanimously against the offer.

12%

Wage increase, 2027–2031

Combined with existing raises, brings covered workers to a 14.31% total bump through 2031, on par with law enforcement's 14%.

1,026

Days of no-layoff guarantee

No layoffs for covered workers through June 30, 2029, starting from the September 8 announcement.

6,000

Workers not covered

Roughly 6,000 employees remain outside the early deal, with no no-layoff protection.

$450M

Projected 2028–29 budget shortfall

Down from $742 million after about $300 million in ongoing savings. The gap grows to $1.09 billion by 2029–30.

Voices

Curated perspectives — historical figures and your fellow readers.

Ever wondered what historical figures would say about today's headlines?

People Involved

Daniel Lurie

Mayor of San Francisco

In office since January 2025; sealed first major labor deal

Sarah Perez

San Francisco Vice President, IFPTE Local 21

Key negotiator; endorsed the deal

Theresa Rutherford

President, SEIU Local 1021

Led opposition to April layoffs; now backs the deal

Jennifer Esteen

Registered nurse, member of the city nurses' bargaining team

Leading the nurses' rejection of the early deal

Organizations Involved

SEIU Local 1021

Public-sector union

Ratified the early deal; its nurses' unit rejected it

San Francisco's largest public-sector union, representing roughly 14,000 city workers across departments.

IFPTE Local 21

Public-sector union

Ratified the early deal

Represents professional and technical city workers, including engineers, planners, and IT staff.

Timeline

April 2026 September 2026

5 events Latest: September 18th, 2026 · 3 weeks ago

Tap a bar to jump to that date

September 2026
SEIU 1021 leaders protest contract as 'concession'
Latest Protest

A group of SEIU 1021 city worker leaders protested the tentative agreement and called for a no vote, arguing the deal conceded too much. The union's ratification vote was underway.
September 18th, 2026
Deal announced: raises for no layoffs
Agreement

10 unions covering 24,000 workers get 12% raises through 2031 in exchange for a no-layoff guarantee through June 30, 2029. Ratification pending.
September 8th, 2026
August 2026
Mayor's office approaches Labor Council
Negotiation

Lurie's office opens early talks with the Labor Council's public employee committee, seeking a contract extension before the 2027 expiration.
August 2026
June 2026
2,000 workers rally at City Hall
Protest

SEIU 1021 and allies protest budget cuts, with dozens giving public comment at the Board of Supervisors budget hearing.
June 4th, 2026
April 2026
Lurie lays off more than 100 city workers
Policy

Layoff notices sent across 18 departments as the mayor moves to close a projected $1 billion five-year deficit.
April 6th, 2026

Scenarios

Union members ratify deal, labor peace holds through 2029

Likely Resolves by Nov 30, 2026

Discussed by: SF Standard analysis; union leaders quoted in coverage

SEIU 1021 and IFPTE Local 21 hold ratification votes in the coming weeks. Leaders endorsed the deal, and members are likely to approve given the 12% raise and the rare no-layoff guarantee. The city then faces the harder task: finding funding for the raises in next year's budget, due June 2027.

Ratification fails, negotiations resume with bigger demands

Possible Resolves by Nov 30, 2026

Discussed by: Labor observers noting the 12% trails law enforcement's 14%

Members reject the deal — possibly because the 12% raise trails the 14% police got, or because the 6,000 uncovered workers feel left out. Negotiations restart with contracts expiring in 2027 and the deficit still looming. Both sides return to the April standoff.

Budget shortfall forces renegotiation or breach

Possible Resolves by Jul 31, 2027

Discussed by: Mayor's office admission that funding 'wasn't immediately clear'

The June 2027 budget reveals the city can't fund the raises without cutting elsewhere. Lurie either reopens the contract or withholds scheduled increases, triggering grievances or lawsuits from unions. The no-layoff guarantee gets tested well before 2029.

Nurses win a separate contract with safety and staffing commitments

Likely Resolves by Q2 2027

Discussed by: SF Standard; Jennifer Esteen, nurses' bargaining team member

The nurses' unit rejected the early deal unanimously, with a member survey showing overwhelming opposition. They want a two-year contract matching the no-layoff guarantee, plus safety and staffing measures. The city can bargain separately with the unit without jeopardizing the rest of the deal.

Remaining city unions split on the early offer

Likely Resolves by Q2 2027

Discussed by: SF Standard reporting on undecided units

Transportation workers, electricians, and construction workers haven't decided whether to accept the early deal. Some may take the 12% raise and no-layoff guarantee; others may hold out for more, especially after the nurses' rejection.

Historical Context

2 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

1975

New York City fiscal crisis (1975)

New York City faced a $1.5 billion deficit and couldn't borrow. Municipal unions bought city bonds with their pension funds — saving the city from bankruptcy in exchange for preserving jobs and, later, accepting wage freezes.

Then

The city avoided bankruptcy through union pension purchases and federal loan guarantees.

Now

Labor gained a permanent seat at the fiscal table, but austerity cuts and layoffs followed anyway within a few years.

Why this matters now

Shows the leverage municipal unions hold when a city is desperate — and that a labor deal doesn't erase the budget math. San Francisco's early deal is the preemptive version of this trade.

2013

Detroit bankruptcy (2013)

After years of deficits, Detroit filed the largest municipal bankruptcy in U.S. history. Unions resisted, but emergency managers imposed cuts through bankruptcy court, overriding union contracts and trimming pensions.

Then

Union contracts were voided; some retirees lost about 4.5% of pension value plus cost-of-living adjustments.

Now

Set a precedent that municipal bankruptcy can override union agreements, sharply weakening labor leverage in distressed cities.

Why this matters now

The counterfactual: what happens when a city and unions don't reach a preemptive deal. Detroit shows the cost of failure is total loss of union leverage — San Francisco's deal is the alternative path.