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San Francisco mayor strikes early union deal to avoid layoffs through 2029

San Francisco mayor strikes early union deal to avoid layoffs through 2029

Rule Changes San Francisco, CA local

Supervisors unanimously approve Lurie's early deal; city nurses still hold out over safety and staffing

5 days ago: Supervisors approve the labor agreements

Overview

Updated 4 days ago

San Francisco supervisors voted unanimously on October 20 to put Mayor Daniel Lurie's early labor deal into effect. It covers 24,000 workers across 10 unions, by the mayor's office's count, with 12% raises from 2027 to 2031 and a ban on layoffs of permanent civil service employees through June 2029.

Members of SEIU Local 1021 and IFPTE Local 21, about 17,000 workers, ratified it in September. The nurses' unit, about 2,400 strong, rejected it over safety and staffing. Lurie has not said how the raises will be paid for, with a $450 million shortfall projected for 2028–29.

Why it matters

The deal secures labor peace for most city workers, but nurses' safety demands and the city's deficit leave the budget unresolved.

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Key Indicators

24,000
Workers covered by the deal
The mayor's office counts 10 unions, about 70% of the city's roughly 34,000-person workforce; Mission Local reported over 22,000 employees across six unions. SEIU 1021 and IFPTE Local 21 ratified; the nurses' unit rejected it.
17,000
Workers in unions that ratified
SEIU 1021 and IFPTE Local 21 members approved the deal in September.
2,400
Nurses who rejected the deal
The nurses' bargaining committee voted unanimously against the offer in September. No separate agreement has been announced.
12%
Wage increase, 2027–2031
Combined with raises already in the contracts, the mayor's office says covered workers get a 14.5% total bump through 2031, matching the 14% police and firefighters won in March.
1,026
Days of no-layoff guarantee
No layoffs for covered workers through June 30, 2029, counted from the September 8 announcement.
6,000
Workers not covered
Roughly 6,000 employees remain outside the early deal, with no no-layoff protection.
$450M
Projected 2028–29 budget shortfall
Down from $742 million after about $300 million in ongoing savings. The gap grows to $1.09 billion by 2029–30.

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People Involved

Daniel Lurie
Daniel Lurie
Mayor of San Francisco
In office since January 2025; his first major labor deal cleared the Board of Supervisors on October 20
 Sarah Perez
Sarah Perez
San Francisco Vice President, IFPTE Local 21
Key negotiator; endorsed the deal
TR
Theresa Rutherford
President, SEIU Local 1021
Led opposition to April layoffs; now backs the deal
 Jennifer Esteen
Jennifer Esteen
Registered nurse, member of the city nurses' bargaining team
Leading the nurses' rejection of the early deal
VC
Vince Courtney
Business representative, Northern California District Council of Laborers
Backed the deal, calling its layoff protection unusual

Organizations Involved

SEIU Local 1021
SEIU Local 1021
Public-sector union
Main bargaining unit ratified the deal; its nurses' unit rejected it; supervisors implemented the agreement on October 20

San Francisco's largest public-sector union, representing city workers across departments.
IFPTE Local 21
IFPTE Local 21
Public-sector union
Members ratified the early deal; supervisors approved it on October 20

Represents professional and technical city workers, including engineers, planners, and IT staff.

Timeline

April 2026 October 2026

7 events Latest: 5 days ago
Tap a bar to jump to that date

  1. Supervisors approve the labor agreements

    Latest Vote

    The Board of Supervisors voted unanimously to implement agreements with SEIU 1021, IFPTE Local 21, the Municipal Executives Association and other units. Six of the amendments had cleared a committee on October 15.

  2. Two biggest unions ratify; nurses reject

    Ratification

    Members of SEIU 1021 and IFPTE Local 21 approved the early contract extension. The separate SEIU nurses' unit, about 2,400 members, voted it down over staffing and safety.

  3. SEIU 1021 leaders protest contract as 'concession'

    Protest

    A group of SEIU 1021 city worker leaders protested the tentative agreement and called for a no vote, arguing the deal conceded too much. The union's ratification vote was underway.

  4. Deal announced: raises for no layoffs

    Agreement

    10 unions covering 24,000 workers get 12% raises through 2031 in exchange for a no-layoff guarantee through June 30, 2029. Ratification pending.

  5. Mayor's office approaches Labor Council

    Negotiation

    Lurie's office opens early talks with the Labor Council's public employee committee, seeking a contract extension before the 2027 expiration.

  6. 2,000 workers rally at City Hall

    Protest

    SEIU 1021 and allies protest budget cuts, with dozens giving public comment at the Board of Supervisors budget hearing.

  7. Lurie lays off more than 100 city workers

    Policy

    Layoff notices sent across 18 departments as the mayor moves to close a projected $1 billion five-year deficit.

Scenarios

1

Union members ratify deal, labor peace holds through 2029

Likely Resolves by Nov 30, 2026

Discussed by: SF Standard analysis; union leaders quoted in coverage

SEIU 1021 and IFPTE Local 21 hold ratification votes in the coming weeks. Leaders endorsed the deal, and members are likely to approve given the 12% raise and the rare no-layoff guarantee. The city then faces the harder task: finding funding for the raises in next year's budget, due June 2027.

2

Ratification fails, negotiations resume with bigger demands

Possible Resolves by Nov 30, 2026

Discussed by: Labor observers noting the 12% trails law enforcement's 14%

Members reject the deal — possibly because the 12% raise trails the 14% police got, or because the 6,000 uncovered workers feel left out. Negotiations restart with contracts expiring in 2027 and the deficit still looming. Both sides return to the April standoff.

3

Budget shortfall forces renegotiation or breach

Possible Resolves by Jul 31, 2027

Discussed by: Mayor's office admission that funding 'wasn't immediately clear'

The June 2027 budget reveals the city can't fund the raises without cutting elsewhere. Lurie either reopens the contract or withholds scheduled increases, triggering grievances or lawsuits from unions. The no-layoff guarantee gets tested well before 2029.

4

Nurses win a separate contract with safety and staffing commitments

Likely Resolves by Q2 2027

Discussed by: SF Standard; Jennifer Esteen, nurses' bargaining team member

The nurses' unit rejected the early deal unanimously, with a member survey showing overwhelming opposition. They want a two-year contract matching the no-layoff guarantee, plus safety and staffing measures. The city can bargain separately with the unit without jeopardizing the rest of the deal.

5

Remaining city unions split on the early offer

Likely Resolves by Q2 2027

Discussed by: SF Standard reporting on undecided units

Transportation workers, electricians, and construction workers haven't decided whether to accept the early deal. Some may take the 12% raise and no-layoff guarantee; others may hold out for more, especially after the nurses' rejection.

6

Lurie's next budget funds the raises without new taxes

Uncertain Resolves by Aug 1, 2027

Discussed by: The Voice of San Francisco, which questioned whether the raises fit the city's long-term outlook

The agreements lock in pay increases through 2031 while the city projects a $450 million shortfall in 2028–29. If the mayor's spending plan covers the raises through savings or cuts elsewhere, the deal holds as written. If not, the funding fight moves to the Board of Supervisors.

Historical Context

2 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

1975

New York City fiscal crisis (1975)

New York City faced a $1.5 billion deficit and couldn't borrow. Municipal unions bought city bonds with their pension funds — saving the city from bankruptcy in exchange for preserving jobs and, later, accepting wage freezes.

Then

The city avoided bankruptcy through union pension purchases and federal loan guarantees.

Now

Labor gained a permanent seat at the fiscal table, but austerity cuts and layoffs followed anyway within a few years.

Why this matters now

Shows the leverage municipal unions hold when a city is desperate — and that a labor deal doesn't erase the budget math. San Francisco's early deal is the preemptive version of this trade.

2013

Detroit bankruptcy (2013)

After years of deficits, Detroit filed the largest municipal bankruptcy in U.S. history. Unions resisted, but emergency managers imposed cuts through bankruptcy court, overriding union contracts and trimming pensions.

Then

Union contracts were voided; some retirees lost about 4.5% of pension value plus cost-of-living adjustments.

Now

Set a precedent that municipal bankruptcy can override union agreements, sharply weakening labor leverage in distressed cities.

Why this matters now

The counterfactual: what happens when a city and unions don't reach a preemptive deal. Detroit shows the cost of failure is total loss of union leverage — San Francisco's deal is the alternative path.

Sources

(12)
+6
The San Francisco Standard SEIU 1021 Local News Matters NBC Bay Area Indybay New York Post GrowSF Mission Local IFPTE Local 21 The Common News The San Francisco Standard SEIU 1021