Seven Ethiopian armed groups announced a joint coalition on September 20, linking rebel movements from the country's largest regions under one banner. Three days later, Tigrayan leaders declared a new war with the federal government, and fighting has since spread into the neighboring Afar and Amhara regions.
The alliance, called the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival, aims to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed from power. Federal forces have started pushing back, recapturing towns in Afar and Amhara, but as of late September only three of the seven allied groups were confirmed to be actively fighting. Roughly 750,000 people remained displaced within Tigray from the earlier war.
Why it matters
Ethiopia's federal army is fighting a new multi-region war against a rebel alliance that could still open fronts in Amhara and Oromia.
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Key Indicators
7
Armed groups in the coalition
Groups from Amhara, Oromia, Tigray, Ogaden, Afar, Benishangul, and Gumuz regions.
3
Major active insurgencies represented
Fano in Amhara, OLA in Oromia, and TPLF-aligned forces in Tigray are all actively fighting the federal government.
~1 year
Duration of talks before announcement
A source close to Fano told Al Jazeera that leaders had been negotiating for about a year before going public.
2026-05
Port Sudan coordination meeting
High-level factions of TPLF, Fano, and ONLF met with Eritrean security officials to structure multi-factional pressure.
12
Killed in separate Gambella violence
MSF reported at least 12 killed and dozens wounded in Itang Special Woreda, Gambella region, on September 18 — a separate conflict near the South Sudan border from the alliance's campaigns.
3
Airports seized in Tigray
Tigray Defense Forces took control of airports in Mekelle, Aksum, and Shire on September 23, per ACLED local sources.
3 of 7
Alliance groups actively fighting
ACLED found only the TPLF, Amhara Fano, and Afar's Ugugumo were fighting federal forces as of Sept 26.
750K
Displaced within Tigray
People still displaced from the 2020-2022 war before the latest escalation.
17 events
Latest: September 27th, 2026 · 1 month ago
Showing 8 of 17
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September 2026
Federal forces retake Sekota in Wag Hemra zone
LatestMilitary
Government troops recaptured Sekota in northern Amhara's Wag Hemra zone, one of the towns where fighting had spread after the Sept 23 escalation.
African Union says airport seizures breach Pretoria deal
Political
The African Union said the takeover of airports in Mekelle, Axum, and Shire was inconsistent with the 2022 Pretoria agreement that ended the previous war. About 750,000 people remained displaced within Tigray from that conflict.
ACLED: only three of seven alliance groups actively fighting
Analysis
The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data project found that only the TPLF, Amhara Fano, and Afar's Ugugumo were actively fighting federal forces as of Sept 26.
Fighting widens into Afar and Amhara
Conflict
Clashes that began in Tigray spread into the neighboring Afar and Amhara regions as Tigrayan forces and allied groups moved against federal troops on several fronts.
Government accuses Eritrea of financing coalition
Government Response
Prime Minister Abiy's spokesperson Billene Seyoum alleged that Eritrea financially supported members of the new alliance, adding a regional dimension to the coalition.
Tigray leaders declare new war with federal government
Conflict
Tigrayan leaders said they had entered a new war with the federal government as fighting broke out in Tigray and two neighboring regions, shattering the November 2022 Pretoria peace deal.
Tigray forces seize airports in Aksum and Shire, clash with federal troops
Military
After taking Mekelle's airport, Tigray Defense Forces also seized airports in Aksum and Shire. Armed clashes began along the Kobo-Tumuga direction between Ethiopian National Defense Force troops and joint TDF-Fano forces, per ACLED local sources.
ONLF confirms alliance membership
Declaration
The Ogaden National Liberation Front confirmed its membership in the Alliance for Survival, rejecting a rival statement that denied it had joined.
Alliance draws international attention
News
International media, including the BBC and Al Jazeera, report on the seven-group coalition. The federal government has not yet responded.
Alliance chair named, Reuters and Euronews corroborate details
Analysis
Reuters and Euronews confirmed the alliance's formation, reporting Fano's Zemene Kassie will chair it and that members had coordinated for more than a year. TPLF Vice President Amanuel Assefa said the groups aim to remove the regime and install a transitional government.
Alliance for Survival formally announced
Declaration
Seven armed groups announce the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival on Tigrai TV, vowing to overthrow Abiy's government.
TPLF fighters surrender to federal forces
Military
Ethiopian government announces that around 300 TPLF fighters surrendered with weapons and ammunition.
Violence in Gambella's Itang district kills 12
Conflict
MSF said its Kule health centre teams treated an influx of wounded after fighting in Itang Special Woreda. The region hosts 400,000 refugees, most of them South Sudanese — a separate conflict from the new alliance's fronts.
May 2026
Port Sudan coordination meeting
Meeting
Hardline TPLF factions, Fano representatives, ONLF, and Eritrean officials meet to structure coordinated pressure on the federal government.
April 2023
Fano rebellion erupts in Amhara
Conflict
Fano militias begin fighting federal forces over the government's plan to disband regional special forces.
November 2022
Pretoria Agreement signed
Peace Deal
Ethiopian government and TPLF sign a peace deal ending the war, leaving disputes over disarmament and Western Tigray unresolved.
November 2020
Tigray war begins
Conflict
Federal forces attack TPLF positions in Tigray, starting a 20-month civil war.
Scenarios
1
Ethiopia slides into multi-front war
Possible
Resolves by Q2 2027
Discussed by: Kjetil Tronvoll, a researcher quoted by AFP; Sudan Horizon; analysts noting the federal army could face simultaneous fronts
The alliance develops a unified military command and coordinates attacks across Amhara, Oromia, and Tigray. Federal forces, already stretched by two ongoing insurgencies, face a multi-front conflict. Kjetil Tronvoll told AFP that a common command could require the federal army to fight on multiple fronts simultaneously, a scenario the government has not yet publicly addressed.
2
Alliance fractures as government divides opponents
Uncertain
Resolves by Q2 2027
Discussed by: Analysts noting the unresolved Western Tigray dispute between TPLF and Fano; the TPLF's formal role in the Pretoria Agreement peace process
The coalition holds together politically but fails to create a unified military command, and the government exploits internal differences. The TPLF's participation is complicated by its formal role in the peace process, and the Western Tigray territorial dispute between TPLF and Fano remains unresolved. The government, which announced 300 TPLF fighter surrenders days before the alliance was formed, signals it can peel away members individually.
3
International pressure forces transition talks
Possible
Resolves by Q2 2027
Discussed by: The alliance's own founding statement calling for a transitional charter and national dialogue; precedent of the Pretoria Agreement brokered by the African Union
The alliance's formation, combined with escalating violence, pushes the government and coalition members toward internationally mediated negotiations. The alliance has stated its goal is an inclusive transitional government guided by a charter, echoing the framing that produced the 2022 Pretoria Agreement. African Union or Western mediators could press both sides to open formal talks before a full war breaks out.
4
Federal forces launch a full-scale offensive in Tigray
Likely
Resolves by End of 2026
Discussed by: CNN, AFP, and Martin Plaut's conflict monitoring
With Tigrayan leaders declaring a new war and seizing airports, the federal government may respond with a large military campaign in Tigray, as it did in November 2020. That would repeat the conditions of the 2020-2022 war, which killed hundreds of thousands, and test whether the alliance's other members open fronts in Amhara and Oromia.
5
Alliance stays a political pact as its military front stalls
Possible
Resolves by Nov 30, 2026
Discussed by: ACLED conflict data as of Sept 26; federal recapture of towns in Afar and Amhara
Only three of the seven alliance members are fighting, and federal forces are retaking territory the coalition seized in its opening push. If the OLA does not open a front in Oromia, the alliance's military impact stays concentrated near Tigray's borders, and it pressures the government mostly as a political pact.
Historical Context
3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.
1 of 3
1988-1991
EPRDF coalition overthrows the Derg (1988-1991)
The Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front united ethnic-based insurgencies, including the TPLF, the Ethiopian People's Democratic Movement, and the Oromo People's Democratic Organization, against Mengistu Haile Mariam's Derg regime. Coordinated offensives from multiple fronts forced Mengistu from power in May 1991.
Then
The Derg fell and a transitional government was formed, with the coalition ruling Ethiopia for the next two decades.
Now
TPLF dominance within the coalition bred resentment in other regions, creating the grievances behind today's conflicts in Amhara and Oromia.
Why this matters now
Shows that Ethiopian armed groups can topple a central government through coordinated alliance, and that post-victory power-sharing disputes can seed the next war.
2 of 3
1992-2001
Northern Alliance in Afghanistan (2001)
A loose coalition of ethnic-based militias (Tajik, Uzbek, Hazara) with histories of conflict among themselves united against the Taliban. With US air support in late 2001, they helped push the Taliban from power in weeks.
Then
The Taliban fell and the Northern Alliance factions entered a power-sharing government.
Now
The coalition fractured and was sidelined politically, contributing to Afghanistan's subsequent instability and the Taliban's eventual return in 2021.
Why this matters now
Demonstrates how groups with deep mutual distrust can cooperate militarily against a common enemy, and how fragile that cooperation is once the shared goal is achieved.
3 of 3
November 2020 - November 2022
The Tigray war and Pretoria Agreement (2020-2022)
Ethiopia's federal government, allied with Fano militias and Eritrean forces, fought the TPLF in a 20-month war that killed hundreds of thousands and displaced millions. The Pretoria Agreement ended the fighting but left disarmament, the TPLF's legal status, and control of Western Tigray unresolved.
Then
The peace deal ended large-scale combat but tensions over its implementation persisted.
Now
Unresolved disputes created the conditions for the new alliance: Fano turned against the government, Tigray remobilized, and Western Tigray remains a flashpoint between the two groups.
Why this matters now
The new alliance directly reconfigures the alliances of that war, with Fano and the TPLF now partners despite having fought each other with federal forces.
