Seven Ethiopian armed groups form coalition against Abiy's government

Overview

Updated 1 hour ago

Seven Ethiopian armed groups announced a joint coalition on September 20, binding rebel movements from the country's largest regions under a single banner. The alliance, called the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival, aims to overthrow Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government and install an inclusive transitional administration.

The move pairs groups that fought on opposite sides during the 2020-2022 Tigray war. Fano militias, which fought alongside federal forces against the Tigray People's Liberation Front, have now joined the TPLF, the Oromo Liberation Army, and four smaller movements in a shared effort to remove Abiy. Leaders had been discussing the alliance for about a year before the formal announcement.

Why it matters

If the alliance coordinates military operations, Ethiopia's federal army could face simultaneous wars in three of the country's largest regions.

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Key Indicators

Armed groups in the coalition

Groups from Amhara, Oromia, Tigray, Ogaden, Afar, Benishangul, and Gumuz regions.

Major active insurgencies represented

Fano in Amhara, OLA in Oromia, and TPLF-aligned forces in Tigray are all actively fighting or mobilizing against the federal government.

~1 year

Duration of talks before announcement

A source close to Fano told Al Jazeera that leaders had been negotiating for about a year before going public.

2026-05

Port Sudan coordination meeting

High-level factions of TPLF, Fano, and ONLF met with Eritrean security officials to structure multi-factional pressure.

Voices

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People Involved

Abiy Ahmed Ali

Prime Minister of Ethiopia

In power, facing coordinated opposition from seven armed groups

Emanuel Assefa

Deputy Chairman of the Tigray People's Liberation Front

Confirmed the alliance's formation to AFP

Debretsion Gebremichael

TPLF Chairman and former leader of Tigray during the 2020-2022 war

Led hardline TPLF factions in May 2026 coordination meetings

Zemene Kassie

Leader of the Amhara Fano National Movement

Read the alliance's founding declaration on Tigrai Television

Organizations Involved

Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival

Coalition of armed opposition groups

Newly formed, seeking to overthrow the Prosperity Party government

A coalition of seven armed Ethiopian groups united to remove Abiy Ahmed's government and establish an inclusive transitional administration.

Tigray People's Liberation Front

Political party and armed movement

Member of the new alliance; holds interim administration role in Tigray under the Pretoria Agreement

The party that dominated Ethiopian politics for nearly three decades before Abiy Ahmed took office in 2018.

Amhara Fano National Movement

Armed militia coalition

Member of the new alliance; actively fighting federal forces in Amhara

A coalition of Fano militia factions fighting the federal government in Ethiopia's Amhara region since April 2023.

Oromo Liberation Army (OLA)

Armed independence movement

Member of the new alliance; fighting federal forces in Oromia since 2018

The armed wing of the Oromo Liberation Front, fighting for self-determination for Ethiopia's largest ethnic group.

Timeline

November 2020 September 2026

7 events Latest: Today

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September 2026
Alliance draws international attention
Today News

International media, including the BBC and Al Jazeera, report on the seven-group coalition. The federal government has not yet responded.
Today
Alliance for Survival formally announced
Declaration

Seven armed groups announce the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival on Tigrai TV, vowing to overthrow Abiy's government.
Yesterday
TPLF fighters surrender to federal forces
Military

Ethiopian government announces that around 300 TPLF fighters surrendered with weapons and ammunition.
3 days ago
May 2026
Port Sudan coordination meeting
Meeting

Hardline TPLF factions, Fano representatives, ONLF, and Eritrean officials meet to structure coordinated pressure on the federal government.
May 15th, 2026
April 2023
Fano rebellion erupts in Amhara
Conflict

Fano militias begin fighting federal forces over the government's plan to disband regional special forces.
April 15th, 2023
November 2022
Pretoria Agreement signed
Peace Deal

Ethiopian government and TPLF sign a peace deal ending the war, leaving disputes over disarmament and Western Tigray unresolved.
November 2nd, 2022
November 2020
Tigray war begins
Conflict

Federal forces attack TPLF positions in Tigray, starting a 20-month civil war.
November 4th, 2020

Scenarios

Ethiopia slides into multi-front war

Possible Resolves by Q2 2027

Discussed by: Kjetil Tronvoll, a researcher quoted by AFP; Sudan Horizon; analysts noting the federal army could face simultaneous fronts

The alliance develops a unified military command and coordinates attacks across Amhara, Oromia, and Tigray. Federal forces, already stretched by two ongoing insurgencies, face a multi-front conflict. Kjetil Tronvoll told AFP that a common command could require the federal army to fight on multiple fronts simultaneously, a scenario the government has not yet publicly addressed.

Alliance fractures as government divides opponents

Uncertain Resolves by Q2 2027

Discussed by: Analysts noting the unresolved Western Tigray dispute between TPLF and Fano; the TPLF's formal role in the Pretoria Agreement peace process

The coalition holds together politically but fails to create a unified military command, and the government exploits internal differences. The TPLF's participation is complicated by its formal role in the peace process, and the Western Tigray territorial dispute between TPLF and Fano remains unresolved. The government, which announced 300 TPLF fighter surrenders days before the alliance was formed, signals it can peel away members individually.

International pressure forces transition talks

Possible Resolves by Q2 2027

Discussed by: The alliance's own founding statement calling for a transitional charter and national dialogue; precedent of the Pretoria Agreement brokered by the African Union

The alliance's formation, combined with escalating violence, pushes the government and coalition members toward internationally mediated negotiations. The alliance has stated its goal is an inclusive transitional government guided by a charter, echoing the framing that produced the 2022 Pretoria Agreement. African Union or Western mediators could press both sides to open formal talks before a full war breaks out.

Historical Context

3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

1988-1991

EPRDF coalition overthrows the Derg (1988-1991)

The Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front united ethnic-based insurgencies, including the TPLF, the Ethiopian People's Democratic Movement, and the Oromo People's Democratic Organization, against Mengistu Haile Mariam's Derg regime. Coordinated offensives from multiple fronts forced Mengistu from power in May 1991.

Then

The Derg fell and a transitional government was formed, with the coalition ruling Ethiopia for the next two decades.

Now

TPLF dominance within the coalition bred resentment in other regions, creating the grievances behind today's conflicts in Amhara and Oromia.

Why this matters now

Shows that Ethiopian armed groups can topple a central government through coordinated alliance, and that post-victory power-sharing disputes can seed the next war.

1992-2001

Northern Alliance in Afghanistan (2001)

A loose coalition of ethnic-based militias (Tajik, Uzbek, Hazara) with histories of conflict among themselves united against the Taliban. With US air support in late 2001, they helped push the Taliban from power in weeks.

Then

The Taliban fell and the Northern Alliance factions entered a power-sharing government.

Now

The coalition fractured and was sidelined politically, contributing to Afghanistan's subsequent instability and the Taliban's eventual return in 2021.

Why this matters now

Demonstrates how groups with deep mutual distrust can cooperate militarily against a common enemy, and how fragile that cooperation is once the shared goal is achieved.

November 2020 - November 2022

The Tigray war and Pretoria Agreement (2020-2022)

Ethiopia's federal government, allied with Fano militias and Eritrean forces, fought the TPLF in a 20-month war that killed hundreds of thousands and displaced millions. The Pretoria Agreement ended the fighting but left disarmament, the TPLF's legal status, and control of Western Tigray unresolved.

Then

The peace deal ended large-scale combat but tensions over its implementation persisted.

Now

Unresolved disputes created the conditions for the new alliance: Fano turned against the government, Tigray remobilized, and Western Tigray remains a flashpoint between the two groups.

Why this matters now

The new alliance directly reconfigures the alliances of that war, with Fano and the TPLF now partners despite having fought each other with federal forces.