SpaceX prices the largest IPO in history

Overview

SpaceX priced at $135 a share on June 8, locking in $75 billion at a $1.77 trillion valuation. That is the largest public offering on record. Order books closed with roughly $150 billion in demand — twice the offering size — and trading begins June 12 on Nasdaq under ticker SPCX.

S&P Dow Jones Indices ruled on June 4 it would not change its index criteria, keeping a profitability requirement SpaceX cannot meet while losing billions a year on Starship development. That decision delays S&P 500 entry to at least mid-2027. The Nasdaq-100 follows different rules: SPCX is on track for inclusion by late June, about 15 trading days after listing, triggering an estimated $22-27 billion in forced buying by index funds.

Why it matters

Nasdaq-100 inclusion by late June will force index funds to absorb an estimated $22-27 billion in SPCX, putting Musk's 79% voting control into retirement accounts whether or not investors choose it.

Questions about this story

Is the SpaceX a good buy

At $135 and a $1.77T valuation, SPCX is priced for perfection — Morningstar puts fair value at $780B, roughly half the IPO price, and the stock carries governance risks that even supporters concede are without precedent at this scale.

Why it matters: The Nasdaq-100 forced-buying wave (~$22-27B over the first two weeks) could push the price higher short-term, masking the valuation gap and pulling in retail investors before a more realistic reckoning.

Morningstar initiated coverage at a $780B fair value — 55% below the IPO price — modeling Starlink and the launch business at $611B, with $170B for AI upside scenarios; analyst Nicholas Owens recommended waiting for post-listing pullbacks.
Starlink is the only profitable segment: $1.2B operating profit in Q1 2026 on 10.3M subscribers. SpaceX as a whole posted a $4.28B net loss in Q1 2026, partly due to Starship development and the xAI acquisition burning roughly $10B/year.
S&P 500 entry is blocked until at least mid-2027 (GAAP profitability test); the larger passive-fund buying wave won't arrive until SpaceX turns profitable on an annual basis.
Elon Musk controls 79% of votes via dual-class shares and cannot be removed as CEO without his own consent — CalPERS, the NYC and NYS comptrollers, and AkademikerPension have all flagged this publicly, and 5% of IPO shares carry no lock-up, adding early selling pressure.

Sources

Room for disagreement

Bulls argue the Nasdaq-100 forced buying ($22-27B) creates a near-term price floor and that Starlink's subscriber trajectory — 10.3M now, growing fast — justifies a premium multiple; bears, led by Morningstar, say even a generous Starlink DCF gets you to $780B, not $1.77T, and that historical mega-IPOs at stretched valuations average a 32% drawdown in the first year.
On governance: some institutional investors say the dual-class structure is disqualifying (AkademikerPension has formally barred the stock); others argue SpaceX's track record — first private orbital launch, Crew Dragon, Starlink — shows Musk's operational control has created value that justifies the concession.

AI-generated with web search — may be wrong. Check the linked sources.

When is Anthropic and OpenAI ipos? Will these three affect each other?

OpenAI is targeting September 2026 and Anthropic October 2026 — so all three could hit public markets within six months of each other, creating a ~$3 trillion wave competing for the same institutional dollars.

Why it matters: Three simultaneous mega-listings could together raise close to $200 billion, crowding out capital from other tech IPOs and existing growth stocks at the same time they race each other for AI market share.

OpenAI filed a confidential S-1 on May 22, 2026, targeting a September debut at a $852B–$1T valuation; Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan are leading.
Anthropic filed confidentially on June 1, 2026, targeting October 2026 at roughly a $380B valuation — though its annualized revenue reportedly crossed $44B and it may post its first operating profit in Q2 2026.
SpaceX's June 12 listing is the opening act: if SPCX trades well, it boosts sentiment for OpenAI and Anthropic; a stumble cools the whole wave.
OpenAI and Anthropic compete directly for the same enterprise AI contracts — and SpaceX's February 2026 absorption of xAI (Grok) makes it an AI player too, so all three overlap as businesses, not just as IPOs.

Sources

Room for disagreement

Prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi) put Anthropic's 2026 listing at single-digit-percent odds, with most money on 2027 — meaning the October target is soft and the SEC review or market conditions could push it.
Some analysts argue the AI bull market is deep enough to absorb all three offerings without crowding effects; others say $200B in combined raises in one calendar year will visibly drain capital from smaller growth companies and existing tech stocks.

AI-generated with web search — may be wrong. Check the linked sources.

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Key Indicators

$75B

Capital raised

More than double Saudi Aramco's 2019 record of $35.4 billion.

$1.77T

Fully diluted valuation

Confirmed at IPO pricing on June 8; roughly 95 times 2025 revenue of $18.67 billion.

79%

Musk voting control

Class B shares carry ten votes each; Musk owns about 42% of equity.

10.3M

Starlink subscribers

Across 155 countries as of March 31, 2026, up roughly 105% year over year.

$4.28B

Q1 2026 net loss

Driven by Starship development; also the figure that blocks S&P 500 entry under GAAP profitability rules.

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People Involved

Elon Musk

Will hold 79% voting control after listing

Gwynne Shotwell

Identified in S-1 as a key executive

David Solomon

Leads underwriting syndicate on SPCX

Marcie Frost

Co-signed governance objection letter to SpaceX on May 14, 2026

Organizations Involved

SpaceX

Aerospace company / business unit

IPO priced at $135 per share on June 8; trading begins on Nasdaq June 12 under ticker SPCX

SpaceX is the world's largest launch provider and operator of Starlink, the largest satellite constellation ever built.

Starlink

Satellite-internet business unit of SpaceX

Primary revenue and profit driver in the IPO story

Starlink delivers broadband from low-Earth orbit to households, ships, planes, and militaries in 155 countries.

Goldman Sachs

Investment bank, lead underwriter

Heads syndicate of 23 banks running the offering

Goldman is the lead-left underwriter and runs the institutional book on the SPCX deal.

The Nasdaq Stock Market LLC

Stock exchange

Listing venue for SPCX on June 12; Nasdaq-100 fast-entry inclusion expected by late June under revised 15-trading-day rules

Nasdaq won the listing over the New York Stock Exchange, adding SpaceX to its roster of mega-cap tech names.

California Public Employees' Retirement System (CalPERS)

Public pension fund

Publicly objecting to SpaceX governance ahead of IPO

CalPERS is the largest US public pension fund, managing roughly $500 billion for California state and local government workers.

AkademikerPension

Danish occupational pension fund

Has formally excluded SpaceX from its investment universe

AkademikerPension manages roughly $25 billion for Danish academics and professionals and is one of the first institutions to formally bar SPCX.

Morningstar

Investment research firm

Initiated SPCX coverage at $780B fair value, calling the $1.75T IPO price significantly overvalued

Morningstar is a US investment research firm that publishes independent equity valuations.

Timeline

March 2002 June 2026

16 events Latest: In 2 days Showing 8 of 16

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June 2026
SPCX scheduled to begin trading on Nasdaq
Latest Market

First day of public trading under ticker SPCX, the largest market debut by money raised.
In 2 days
Final pricing expected
Market

Bankers set the official IPO price after closing the order book.
Tomorrow
SpaceX IPO 2x oversubscribed with $150 billion in demand
Market

Bloomberg and Reuters reported order books exceeded the $75 billion on offer within a day of the roadshow opening, with institutional demand reaching about $150 billion — roughly twice what SpaceX is seeking to raise.
5 days ago
Institutional roadshow begins
Market

Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America Securities open the syndicate roadshow with SpaceX leadership.
6 days ago
S&P Dow Jones rejects fast-track S&P 500 entry for SpaceX
Market

S&P Dow Jones Indices said it would not change its eligibility criteria, keeping the GAAP profitability test and 12-month seasoning requirement intact. SpaceX, which posted a $4.28 billion net loss in Q1 2026, cannot enter the S&P 500 until at least mid-2027.
6 days ago
Morningstar puts SpaceX fair value at $780 billion, half the IPO price
Market

Morningstar analyst Nicholas Owens initiated coverage with a $780 billion fair value — 55% below the $1.75 trillion IPO target — modeling the core launch and Starlink businesses at $611 billion plus $170 billion for AI scenarios. He recommended investors wait for post-listing pullbacks rather than buy at the offer.
7 days ago
Pricing terms set at $135 per share
Market

SpaceX plans to sell 555.6 million shares to raise $75 billion at a $1.75 trillion valuation, with Nasdaq trading scheduled for June 12.
June 2nd, 2026
Harvard Law Forum publishes governance critique of SpaceX listing
Regulatory

The Harvard Law School Forum on Corporate Governance published 'Even Musk Admirers Should Be Troubled by SpaceX's Governance,' citing perpetual supervoting shares, mandatory arbitration, and the combination of CEO, CTO, and board chair roles in one person.
June 2nd, 2026
SpaceX reserves 5% of IPO shares for employees and friends with no lock-up
Market

SpaceX disclosed a directed share program managed by Morgan Stanley that sets aside up to 5% of the offering for selected employees and insiders' family and friends. Unlike standard IPO allocations, these shares carry no lock-up restrictions.
June 1st, 2026
May 2026
AkademikerPension blacklists SpaceX over governance and valuation
Market

The Danish pension fund formally excluded SpaceX from its investment universe, calling the governance 'catastrophic' and the $1.75 trillion valuation 'pure fantasy.' Both internal teams and external managers are barred from buying SPCX shares once trading begins.
May 29th, 2026
SpaceX files S-1 with the SEC
Regulatory

The prospectus discloses $18.67 billion in 2025 revenue, 10.3 million Starlink subscribers, and a dual-class structure giving Musk 79% of votes.
May 20th, 2026
CalPERS and New York pension officials send governance letter to SpaceX
Regulatory

CalPERS CEO Marcie Frost, NYC Comptroller Mark Levine, and NYS Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli sent a joint letter to SpaceX. They called the proposed structure 'the most management-favorable governance ever brought to US public markets at this scale.' They urged SpaceX to remove the provision requiring Musk's own consent for his CEO removal.
May 14th, 2026
May 2020
First crewed SpaceX launch
Operational

Crew Dragon Demo-2 carries NASA astronauts to the International Space Station, the first private human spaceflight.
May 30th, 2020
December 2019
Saudi Aramco sets previous IPO record
Market

Aramco raises $25.6 billion at a $1.7 trillion valuation, the largest IPO until 2026.
December 11th, 2019
September 2008
First successful Falcon 1 launch
Operational

SpaceX becomes the first private firm to put a liquid-fuel rocket in orbit, validating the business and averting bankruptcy.
September 28th, 2008
March 2002
SpaceX founded
Corporate

Elon Musk founds Space Exploration Technologies in Hawthorne, California with about $100 million of his own money.
March 14th, 2002

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Historical Context

3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

December 2019

Saudi Aramco IPO (2019)

Saudi Arabia sold a 1.5% stake in its state oil company at a $1.7 trillion valuation, raising $25.6 billion in the first tranche and $29.4 billion after the greenshoe. The deal listed in Riyadh after Western investors pushed back on the price, and trading was restricted to Saudi and Gulf buyers at launch.

Then

Shares popped 10% on debut, briefly making Aramco the world's most valuable public company.

Now

More than six years later, the stock still trades below its 2019 listing price, and the kingdom has had to issue dividends to keep buyers happy.

Why this matters now

Aramco held the IPO size record SpaceX is now breaking, and it sits at almost exactly the same valuation tier as SPCX. The post-listing performance is a cautionary tale for buyers paying 94 times revenue.

September 2014

Alibaba IPO (2014)

The Chinese e-commerce giant raised $25 billion on the New York Stock Exchange at a $168 billion valuation, then the largest US IPO ever. Founder Jack Ma kept control through a partnership structure that handpicked board members, drawing the same kind of governance criticism now aimed at SpaceX.

Then

Shares jumped 38% on day one, then drifted lower as China growth concerns hit.

Now

The stock is down more than 70% from its 2020 peak after Beijing's crackdown on Ant Group and Jack Ma's disappearance from public life.

Why this matters now

Alibaba shows how founder-control structures play out over a decade. Index funds were forced to hold the stock through the collapse, much as they would be forced to hold SPCX.

May 2012

Facebook IPO (2012)

Facebook raised $16 billion at a $104 billion valuation, with Mark Zuckerberg keeping majority voting control through a dual-class structure. Nasdaq's trading systems glitched on day one, delaying the open by 30 minutes and triggering lawsuits.

Then

Shares fell 50% within four months on mobile monetization fears.

Now

Meta is now worth more than $1.5 trillion, vindicating both the valuation and the dual-class structure for early holders who stayed in.

Why this matters now

Facebook is the bull case: a controversial mega-IPO with founder control that ultimately delivered. SpaceX bulls cite Meta as the template for how this story can end.