Voters decide control of Congress in 2026 midterms

Overview

Updated 1 hour ago

On Nov. 3, 2026, voters decide who controls Congress for the last two years of Donald Trump's second term. All 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats and 39 state and territorial governorships are on the ballot.

Democrats need a net gain of four House seats to reach 218, or three if the chamber's independent caucuses with them. In the Senate, they need four seats to reach 51; Republicans can lose three and keep control at 50-50, with Vice President JD Vance breaking ties.

Why it matters

The party that controls Congress after Nov. 3 can block or advance Trump's agenda for his final two years.

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Key Indicators

435

House seats on the ballot

All voting House seats are contested every two years.

Senate seats on the ballot

Thirty-three regular elections plus special elections in Florida and Ohio.

State and territorial governorships

Governor races are on the ballot in 36 states and three territories.

218

House majority

Seats needed to control the House.

House seats Democrats need

Net gain needed to reach 218, or three if the independent caucuses with them.

Senate seats Democrats need

Net gain needed to reach 51 and control the Senate.

Republican Senate seats

Republican caucus before the election.

Voices

Curated perspectives — historical figures and your fellow readers.

People Involved

Donald Trump

President of the United States

In his second term; the midterms are a referendum on his agenda.

J.D. Vance

Vice President of the United States

Presides over the Senate and can break 50-50 ties.

Marco Rubio

US Secretary of State

Left the Senate in January 2025 to join Trump's cabinet.

Ashley Moody

US Senator from Florida

Appointed to fill Rubio's seat; running in the 2026 special election.

Jon Husted

US Senator from Ohio

Appointed to fill Vance's seat; running in the 2026 special election.

Hakeem Jeffries

House Democratic Leader

Seeking to become Speaker if Democrats win the House.

Mike Johnson

Speaker of the House

Defending a narrow Republican majority.

Chuck Schumer

Senate Democratic Leader

Seeking to win four Republican-held Senate seats.

John Thune

Senate Republican Leader

Defending a 53-seat Republican majority.

Organizations Involved

U.S. House of Representatives

Chamber of Congress

All 435 seats are up for election.

The House writes and passes federal legislation and can investigate the executive branch.

United States Senate

Legislative chamber

35 seats are up, including special elections in Florida and Ohio.

The Senate confirms presidential appointments, ratifies treaties and votes on federal legislation.

Republican Party

Political party

Controls the House and Senate before the election.

The Republican Party holds the presidency and narrow majorities in both chambers of Congress.

Democratic Party (DIKO)

Political party (centrist)

Opposition party seeking House and Senate gains.

The Democratic Party is trying to win control of Congress from Republicans.

Timeline

January 2025 November 2026

3 events Latest: Today

November 2026
Voters go to the polls
Today Election

Voters decide all 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats and 39 governorships.
Today
January 2025
Rubio resigns Florida Senate seat
Resignation

Rubio becomes secretary of state; DeSantis appoints Ashley Moody.
January 20th, 2025
Vance resigns Ohio Senate seat
Resignation

Vance leaves the Senate after winning the vice presidency; DeWine appoints Jon Husted.
January 10th, 2025

Scenarios

Democrats win the House, Republicans keep the Senate

Likely Resolves by Dec 1, 2026

Discussed by: ABC News, The Guardian, Political.org

Democrats need a net gain of four House seats, and ABC News reports that analysts and prediction markets tip them to win the chamber. Republicans are defending 22 of the 35 Senate seats, and Democrats need four, which ABC News and Political.org describe as a longer shot.

Republicans hold both chambers

Possible Resolves by Dec 1, 2026

Discussed by: ABC News, Political.org

If Republicans keep their House majority and Democrats fail to net four Senate seats, Trump retains unified control. Republicans can lose three Senate seats and still keep the chamber at 50-50, with Vice President JD Vance breaking ties.

Democrats win both chambers

Unlikely Resolves by Dec 1, 2026

Discussed by: The Guardian, Political.org

Democrats would need to hold all their Senate seats and win four Republican-held seats, while also taking the House. The Senate map makes this the least likely of the three outcomes, according to ABC News and Political.org.

Historical Context

3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

November 2018

US midterm elections (2018)

Democrats won 41 House seats and took the majority, while Republicans gained two Senate seats and kept control. The election was the first national vote of Trump's first term.

Then

Democrats launched investigations into the Trump administration and blocked parts of his legislative agenda.

Now

The split Congress set the pattern for the next two years and preceded Trump's 2020 reelection loss.

Why this matters now

It is the closest parallel: a first midterm under Trump, with the House flipping and the Senate staying Republican.

November 2010

US midterm elections (2010)

Republicans gained 63 House seats and won the majority; Democrats kept the Senate. The election came two years after Barack Obama's 2008 win.

Then

Republicans blocked much of Obama's legislative agenda and forced budget fights.

Now

The Tea Party wave reshaped Republican primaries and set up the 2012 election.

Why this matters now

It shows how quickly a new president's party can lose the House in a first midterm.

November 1994

US midterm elections (1994)

Republicans gained 54 House seats and eight Senate seats, winning both chambers for the first time in 40 years. Newt Gingrich's Contract with America framed the campaign.

Then

Republicans passed welfare reform and forced budget showdowns with President Bill Clinton.

Now

The GOP held the House for 12 years and reshaped congressional politics.

Why this matters now

It is the benchmark for a midterm wave that flips both chambers, the outcome Democrats are trying to avoid.