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Deadly drone strike on Nyala market intensifies Sudan's air war

Deadly drone strike on Nyala market intensifies Sudan's air war

Force in Play

Army and Rapid Support Forces trade aerial attacks as the civil war shifts to the skies

Today: RSF drone targets Al-Markhiyat transformer

Overview

Updated 1 hour ago

A drone strike on a market in northern Nyala killed 21 people and wounded at least 40 on Monday night. The Sudanese army launched the strike on the city, which the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary has controlled and administered since civil war broke out in April 2023.

The strike is part of a week-long air campaign to strip the RSF of command centers, training grounds, and air defenses ahead of a ground assault. In the first three weeks of October, drone strikes across Sudan killed more than 300 people, according to a United Nations tally.

Why it matters

Sudan's drone war is killing hundreds of civilians a month while blocking food aid to millions on the edge of famine.

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Key Indicators

21
Killed in Nyala market strike
Army drone strike on the Tangooj night market in northern Nyala, October 26
300+
Killed by drone strikes in first three weeks of October
United Nations tally covering strikes across Sudan
200,000+
Estimated total war deaths since April 2023
Estimate from aid workers; the conflict has also displaced more than 13 million people
13 million
People displaced by the war
The world's largest displacement crisis, per United Nations figures

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People Involved

Organizations Involved

Timeline

April 2023 October 2026

6 events Latest: Today
Tap a bar to jump to that date
  1. RSF drone targets Al-Markhiyat transformer

    Today Conflict

    A follow-up strike disrupts power across large parts of Khartoum and Al-Jazira states.

  2. Army drone strike kills 21 in Nyala market

    Conflict

    A drone hits the Tangooj night market in the RSF's de facto capital, killing 21 and wounding 40.

  3. RSF drones hit six power stations

    Conflict

    Coordinated RSF strikes cut electricity for millions in Gezira, White Nile, Sennar, and Gedaref states.

  4. Army drone attack kills 150 in disputed border region

    Conflict

    A government drone strike on the Sudan-South Sudan border area kills more than 150 people.

  5. Army recaptures Khartoum state

    Conflict

    Nearly three million people return to the scarred capital, though power and water remain unreliable.

  6. War erupts in Khartoum

    Conflict

    Dispute over integrating the Rapid Support Forces into the army explodes into urban fighting.

Scenarios

1

Army ground offensive retakes Nyala

Possible Resolves by End of 2027

Discussed by: Military sources cited by Sudan Tribune

The army's week-long air campaign targets RSF command centers, air defenses, and training hubs in Darfur and Kordofan. Military sources say this prepares the ground for an assault to retake Nyala and other RSF-held cities. If the air campaign degrades RSF capability enough, the army could launch a ground offensive.

2

Drone attrition war grinds on

Likely Resolves by Q2 2027

Discussed by: United Nations casualty monitors, aid agencies

If neither side can achieve the conditions for a decisive ground assault, the war settles into continued drone strikes on both sides. The army holds the east and Khartoum; the RSF holds Darfur. Civilian casualties keep mounting and famine warnings intensify as food access deteriorates.

3

Famine pressure forces aid deal

Possible Resolves by Q1 2027

Discussed by: Joint statement from United States, European Union, and 30 other countries

Thirty countries warned of alarming food insecurity and demanded unimpeded humanitarian access. If famine worsens and diplomatic pressure builds, the warring sides may accept a ceasefire or aid corridor. Sudan's foreign ministry has denied famine exists, which complicates this path.

Historical Context

3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

2003-2004

Darfur genocide (2003)

Rebels in Darfur rose against the government in Khartoum. The state responded by arming Arab militias known as the Janjaweed, who burned villages, raped, and killed civilians across Darfur. The International Criminal Court later issued genocide and crimes-against-humanity warrants over the campaign.

Then

Tens of thousands killed and more than 2 million people displaced into camps.

Now

The Janjaweed consolidated into the Rapid Support Forces, now a national power in their own right.

Why this matters now

The RSF fighting the army today began as the army's own proxy militia in Darfur. Nyala is the RSF's de facto capital in the region where this history was written.

1983-2005

Second Sudanese Civil War (1983-2005)

Africa's longest civil war pitted the government in Khartoum against southern rebels for 22 years. An estimated 2 million people died, most from famine and disease, and 4 million were displaced.

Then

Ended with the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement and South Sudan's independence in 2011.

Now

Sudan's pattern of internal conflict continued in Darfur and now between the army and the RSF.

Why this matters now

Sudan has a history of wars that last decades and kill millions, mostly civilians. The current war's estimated toll of over 200,000 may be early in a longer cycle.

2012-2016

Battle of Aleppo (2012-2016)

Syrian government forces besieged and bombed Aleppo, the country's largest rebel-held city, using air power and starvation tactics. The city fell to the government in December 2016.

Then

The Assad government regained Syria's major cities and turned the war in its favor.

Now

Urban bombardment became a template for recapturing rebel-held territory through air power.

Why this matters now

The Sudanese army's intensified air campaign against Nyala and other RSF-held cities mirrors the approach of bombing a city into submission before a ground assault.

Sources

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