Overview
Ukraine hit Russia's Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery with British Storm Shadow missiles on Christmas Day 2025, triggering explosions at a facility that pumps diesel and jet fuel to Russian forces. The same day, Ukrainian drones struck the world's largest gas processing plant 1,400 km inside Russia and set fuel tanks ablaze at a Black Sea port. Three targets, one message: Ukraine can reach deep into Russia's energy jugular—and now, it's expanding the battlefield to the Caspian Sea.
This isn't opportunistic harassment. Ukraine struck nearly 160 Russian oil facilities in 2025, including a dramatic December 18-20 assault on Lukoil's offshore drilling platforms in the Caspian Sea—opening a new front 2,000+ km from Ukraine. The campaign has knocked 20% of Russia's refining capacity offline, though actual output fell only 3-6% as Moscow activated spare capacity and rushed repairs. Intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov insists the strikes damage Russia's war chest more than Western sanctions. The stakes: whether a country fighting for survival can strangle its invader's ability to fund the war, even as peace negotiations inch forward.
Key Indicators
People Involved
Organizations Involved
Ukraine's military intelligence service orchestrating covert operations deep inside Russia.
Ukraine's military, operating 2 million drones annually and executing deep strikes into Russia.
Timeline
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Zelensky Announces Trump Meeting
DiplomaticZelensky announced plans to meet with President-elect Trump in Florida to discuss the 20-point peace plan and Ukraine security guarantees.
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Russia Intercepts 141 Drones Overnight
MilitaryRussia's Defense Ministry reported air defense systems shot down 141 Ukrainian drones overnight across 11 Russian regions, annexed Crimea and the Sea of Azov, though some penetrated to hit targets.
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Russia Intercepts 132 Ukrainian Drones
MilitaryRussian air defense systems destroyed approximately 132 Ukrainian drones between 1 p.m. and 8 p.m. Moscow time, demonstrating intensifying drone warfare.
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Caspian Sea Double Strike: Platform and Warship
MilitaryUkraine's Special Operations Forces struck Lukoil's offshore drilling platform at Filanovsky field and a Russian Project 22460 Okhotnik-class patrol ship in the Caspian Sea, expanding the campaign 2,000+ km from Ukraine.
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R. Grayfer Platform Strike
MilitaryUkrainian drones struck the R. Grayfer offshore drilling platform in the Caspian Sea, forcing shutdown of all 14 wells on the stationary platform.
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First Caspian Sea Strike: Filanovsky Platform
MilitaryUkrainian long-range drones targeted Lukoil's Vladimir Filanovsky oil platform in the Caspian Sea, with at least four drones hitting the platform, forcing suspension of oil and gas production from more than 20 wells.
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Ryazan Refinery Strike
MilitaryUkraine struck Russia's Ryazan refinery with long-range drones, one of the largest attacks on Russian energy infrastructure in December.
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Major Refineries Offline
Impact AssessmentRosneft's Ryazan refinery went offline after drones disabled the main refining unit. Lukoil's Volgograd refinery also temporarily halted operations after damage to its primary oil processing unit.
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Ukraine Sets Monthly Strike Record
MilitaryUkraine launched at least 14 drone attacks on Russian oil refineries in November, setting a new monthly record. 21 of Russia's 38 large refineries had been hit since January 2025.
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Christmas Day Triple Strike
MilitaryUkraine struck Novoshakhtinsk refinery with Storm Shadows, hit Orenburg gas plant 1,400 km away, and set Temryuk port fuel tanks ablaze.
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Zelensky Unveils 20-Point Peace Plan
DiplomaticUkrainian president presented US-brokered peace agreement draft with 90% of Ukraine's demands incorporated, but Donbas control remains disputed.
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Record Strike Month
MilitaryNovember 2024 recorded the highest number of successful strikes against targets inside Russia since campaign began.
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First Storm Shadow Strikes Inside Russia
MilitaryUkraine fired British Storm Shadow missiles into Russia for the first time following Biden administration's green light for long-range strikes.
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Budanov: Strikes Beat Sanctions
StatementUkraine's intelligence chief declared refinery strikes inflict more financial damage than economic sanctions, calling it "a mathematical truth."
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Campaign Intensifies: 58 Strikes in 5 Months
MilitaryUkraine launched at least 58 attacks on Russian energy facilities from August through year-end, sending drones up to 2,000 km inside Russia.
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Russia Reinstates Export Ban
EconomicMoscow reinstated gasoline export ban through December after temporary May-July suspension failed to stabilize domestic market.
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UK Authorizes Defensive Strikes
DiplomaticBritish PM Keir Starmer announced UK would allow defensive use of Storm Shadow missiles on targets inside Russia.
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France Authorizes Strikes Inside Russia
DiplomaticPresident Macron permitted Ukraine to use SCALP missiles to strike targets inside Russia, major policy shift.
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16% of Russian Refining Capacity Offline
Impact AssessmentUkraine temporarily put 16% of Russia's motor fuel production out of commission by end of March.
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Russia Bans Gasoline Exports
EconomicMoscow imposed six-month gasoline export ban as Ukrainian strikes reduced refining capacity by 15%, creating domestic fuel shortages.
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First Strike on St. Petersburg
MilitaryUkrainian drone crashed into St Petersburg Oil Terminal after being shot down, marking first aerial attack on the city since invasion began.
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Systematic Refinery Campaign Begins
MilitaryUkraine attacked fuel depot and energy facility in Oryol Oblast, launching systematic strikes on Russian oil infrastructure.
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Extended Range Strikes on Airbases
MilitaryUkrainian drones struck Russian airbases 500-700 km away, demonstrating rapidly expanding strike range.
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First Ukrainian Long-Range Drone Strike
MilitaryUkraine hit a Russian refinery in Rostov, approximately 200 km from the front line, marking the beginning of long-range strike capabilities.
Scenarios
Ukraine Cripples Russia's War Economy, Forces Negotiations
Discussed by: Chatham House, CSIS, OSW Centre for Eastern Studies analysts
Ukraine expands strikes to knock 30-40% of Russian refining offline by mid-2025, creating fuel shortages that cascade through Russia's military logistics and civilian economy. Moscow's already-strained budget—30% funded by energy exports—collapses under pressure as domestic fuel prices spike and export revenues plummet. Combined with intensified Western sanctions and battlefield stalemates, economic pain forces Putin to accept territorial concessions in peace talks. Budanov's thesis proves correct: systematic infrastructure targeting achieves what sanctions alone couldn't.
Russia Adapts, Campaign Reaches Diminishing Returns
Discussed by: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Reuters energy analysts
Russia's refining sector proves more resilient than hoped. Moscow activates spare capacity at undamaged plants, redirects crude oil exports instead of refined products, and imports gasoline from allies like India and China. Despite 15% capacity offline, actual fuel production drops only 3-6% as Russia demonstrated in late 2024. Air defense improvements around refineries increase Ukrainian drone attrition rates. The campaign continues but becomes a war of attrition rather than a knockout blow, with neither side able to destroy the other's Soviet-designed grid entirely, as Budanov predicted.
Ceasefire Freezes Conflict, Energy War Ends
Discussed by: Russia Matters, Max Security Global Forecast, Futuribles scenario planning
Zelensky's 20-point peace plan or Trump administration-brokered negotiations produce a ceasefire in early-to-mid 2025. Fighting stops along current lines with Donbas and Zaporizhzhia status unresolved but frozen. Both sides halt infrastructure strikes as confidence-building measures. Ukraine suspends deep strikes to secure Western reconstruction aid and eventual EU/NATO membership talks. Russia ends attacks on Ukrainian power grid to avoid further refinery damage and focus on consolidating territorial gains. Energy infrastructure on both sides begins repair, though political tensions remain.
Escalation: Russia Targets Ukrainian Drone Production
Discussed by: IEA reports, Brookings Institution, ISW assessments
Frustrated by refinery damage, Russia shifts strategy to systematically destroy Ukraine's drone manufacturing base. Intelligence identifies the 200+ drone companies and 76 contracted manufacturers supplying 2 million annual UAVs. Cruise missiles and long-range strikes target production facilities in Kyiv, Odesa, and western Ukraine. The campaign reduces Ukraine's strike tempo but drives production further underground and westward. Meanwhile, Russia continues battering Ukraine's grid—already at one-third pre-invasion capacity with eastern regions "at the brink" of blackout. Both energy systems deteriorate in a spiraling war of industrial attrition.
Ukraine Expands to Offshore Energy, Cripples Russian Exports
Discussed by: Chatham House analysts, Kpler energy analysts, CNN assessments
Building on successful December 2025 Caspian Sea strikes, Ukraine systematically targets Russia's offshore oil and gas infrastructure across multiple seas. Attacks on platforms in the Caspian, Black Sea, and potentially Baltic expand beyond refineries to choke exports at the source. Combined with refinery strikes that have already cut oil product exports by 500,000 barrels daily, the multi-front campaign forces Russia to choose between protecting offshore platforms, refineries, or military targets. Western oil companies profit from reduced Russian exports, creating economic incentive for continued Western military aid. Russia's energy revenues collapse faster than anticipated.
Historical Context
Operation Tidal Wave: Allied Bombing of Ploesti Refineries (1943-1944)
1943-1944What Happened
The U.S. Army Air Forces conducted sustained bombing raids against Nazi Germany's Ploesti oil refineries in Romania, which supplied 30% of German fuel. The campaign included a devastating low-level raid on August 1, 1943, that destroyed 42% of refining capacity but cost 54 of 177 bombers. Repeated follow-up raids eventually crippled Romanian oil production by 1944.
Outcome
Short term: Immediate production disruptions and fuel shortages for German military operations in 1943-1944.
Long term: Contributed to Nazi Germany's collapse by strangling fuel supplies needed for tanks, aircraft, and vehicles on all fronts.
Why It's Relevant
Ukraine faces the same strategic calculus: can systematic strikes on energy infrastructure break an adversary's ability to sustain war? Like the Ploesti raids, Ukraine's campaign targets oil refining to choke military fuel supplies.
NATO Bombing of Yugoslav Oil Refineries (1999)
March-June 1999What Happened
During the Kosovo War, NATO repeatedly bombed Yugoslavia's oil infrastructure as part of its air campaign. The Novi Sad refinery was hit on April 13, 15, 18, 21, 24, 27, and 29, and again in June. NATO targeted refineries as "strategic targets with long-term impact on the Serb military machine." The bombing burned 50,000 tons of crude oil and contaminated groundwater.
Outcome
Short term: Destroyed refining capacity and created fuel shortages, limiting Serbian military mobility.
Long term: Contributed to Serbian acceptance of NATO's terms after 78 days of bombing, though infrastructure damage persisted for years.
Why It's Relevant
Demonstrates that modern air campaigns still view oil refineries as strategic chokepoints. Ukraine applies this doctrine with drones instead of NATO jets, proving small nations can execute strategic bombing if they control the technology.
Gulf War Strategic Bombing of Iraqi Infrastructure (1991)
January-February 1991What Happened
Coalition forces destroyed Iraqi oil refineries and distribution systems during the air campaign preceding the ground offensive. Within 24 hours of attacks beginning, coalition aircraft controlled the skies and systematically bombed refineries alongside power plants, communications networks, and military installations. The campaign flew over 100,000 sorties and dropped 88,500 tons of bombs.
Outcome
Short term: Iraq's oil refining and distribution infrastructure was comprehensively destroyed, crippling military logistics.
Long term: Iraq's infrastructure took years to rebuild; the precedent established energy infrastructure as a legitimate wartime target under certain conditions.
Why It's Relevant
Ukraine's campaign mirrors Coalition targeting doctrine but inverts the power dynamic: a smaller nation under invasion uses asymmetric drone warfare to replicate what previously required superpower air forces. The strategic logic remains identical across three decades.