The Supreme Court is one decision away from gutting what remains of the Voting Rights Act. A pending ruling in Louisiana v. Callais could eliminate at least 15 House seats currently held by Black members of Congress—the largest-ever single decline in Black representation. The case turns on whether states can consider race when drawing districts to prevent vote dilution, with the Court's conservative majority signaling they view such efforts as unconstitutional discrimination against white voters.
This is the culmination of a 13-year campaign that began with Shelby County v. Holder in 2013, which killed the Act's preclearance requirement. Section 2—the last meaningful enforcement mechanism—survived that ruling.
Louisiana v. Callais, argued twice before the Court in 2025, directly challenges whether Section 2 itself violates the Constitution. If the justices rule that creating majority-minority districts is racial gerrymandering, Republican-controlled state legislatures could redraw maps across the South. They could erase not just congressional seats but close to 200 state legislative districts representing Black communities.
20 events
Latest: January 8th, 2026 · 5 months ago
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January 2026
NPR Analysis Shows 15 Congressional Seats at Risk
LatestAnalysis
NPR publishes analysis revealing potential largest-ever decline in Black congressional representation if Court rules against Section 2.
Louisiana to Use Existing Map for 2026 Midterms
Political
After Supreme Court declined to issue expedited ruling by year-end 2025, Louisiana confirmed it will use existing congressional map with two majority-Black districts for 2026 midterm elections. Republican legislators had pushed back election deadlines hoping for a ruling that would allow redrawing districts before the election.
October 2025
Second Oral Arguments Signal Conservative Majority
Legal
Janai Nelson argues her first Supreme Court case; conservative justices appear inclined to restrict Section 2 protections.
August 2025
Court Adds Constitutional Question
Legal
Justices direct parties to brief whether creating majority-minority districts violates 14th or 15th Amendment.
March 2025
First Oral Arguments in Louisiana v. Callais
Legal
Supreme Court hears case but declines to rule, instead ordering reargument with new constitutional question.
November 2024
Two Black Women Elected to Senate
Political
Lisa Blunt Rochester and Angela Alsobrooks win Senate seats, first time two Black women will serve simultaneously.
February 2024
White Voters Challenge Remedial Map
Legal
Group calling themselves 'non-African-American voters' sue, claiming second majority-Black district is unconstitutional racial gerrymandering.
January 2024
Louisiana Creates Second Majority-Black District
Policy
Legislature holds special session and draws new map with two majority-Black districts to comply with court order.
June 2023
Allen v. Milligan Reaffirms Section 2
Legal
Supreme Court unexpectedly upholds Section 2 in Alabama redistricting case, requiring second majority-Black district.
June 2022
District Court Rules for Black Voters
Legal
Federal court finds Louisiana's map likely violates Section 2, orders creation of second majority-Black district.
March 2022
Black Voters Sue Louisiana
Legal
Dr. Press Robinson and other Black voters, with NAACP Louisiana State Conference and Power Coalition, file Robinson v. Landry.
February 2022
Louisiana Passes Challenged Congressional Map
Policy
Louisiana Legislature enacts map with one majority-Black district despite 33% Black population, prompting immediate legal challenge.
July 2021
Brnovich v. DNC Weakens Section 2
Legal
Supreme Court makes it harder to challenge discriminatory voting rules under Section 2, narrowing the law's application.
June 2013
Shelby County v. Holder Guts Preclearance
Legal
Supreme Court strikes down Section 4's coverage formula, effectively ending preclearance requirement for jurisdictions with discrimination history.
Texas Implements Restrictive Voter ID Law
Policy
Hours after Shelby County decision, Texas announces implementation of strict voter ID law previously blocked by preclearance.
June 1993
Shaw v. Reno Creates Racial Gerrymandering Doctrine
Legal
Supreme Court rules that districts drawn primarily on race can violate equal protection, creating tension with Voting Rights Act.
1986
Thornburg v. Gingles Decided
Legal
Supreme Court establishes framework for proving vote dilution under Section 2, enabling creation of majority-minority districts.
1982
Congress Amends Section 2
Legislation
Congress strengthens Section 2 with bipartisan support, allowing challenges based on discriminatory effect, not just intent.
February 1971
Congressional Black Caucus Founded
Political
Thirteen Black members of Congress establish the CBC during surge in Black representation following the Voting Rights Act.
August 1965
Voting Rights Act Signed into Law
Legislation
President Johnson signs the Voting Rights Act, banning discriminatory voting practices and requiring federal preclearance for changes in covered jurisdictions.
Historical Context
3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.
1 of 3
1870-1901
Reconstruction and the First Retreat from Black Representation
Following the Civil War, approximately 16 Black men were elected to the U.S. House and 2 to the Senate during Reconstruction, including Hiram Revels and Blanche K. Bruce. But when federal troops withdrew from the South in 1877, Southern states implemented poll taxes, literacy tests, and violence to disenfranchise Black voters. By 1901, George Henry White left Congress as the last Black congressman from the South. No African Americans served in Congress from 1901 to 1928.
Then
Complete elimination of Black representation from the South for nearly three decades.
Now
Jim Crow regime lasted until the civil rights movement and Voting Rights Act of 1965.
Why this matters now
This is the only historical precedent for a decline in Black congressional representation of the magnitude now threatened. If the Court eliminates 15 CBC seats, it would be the largest single drop in Black representation since the post-Reconstruction collapse—potentially signaling a second retreat from multiracial democracy in the South.
2 of 3
2013
Shelby County v. Holder and Immediate Backlash
The Supreme Court struck down Section 4 of the Voting Rights Act, which identified jurisdictions with histories of discrimination that needed federal preclearance before changing voting laws. Chief Justice Roberts wrote that discrimination had diminished enough that the formula was outdated. Within hours, Texas announced it would implement a strict voter ID law that had been blocked. Other states quickly followed with new restrictions.
Then
Wave of new voter ID laws, polling place closures, and registration restrictions in formerly covered jurisdictions.
Now
Section 2 litigation became the only remaining enforcement mechanism, requiring case-by-case lawsuits rather than preventive federal review.
Why this matters now
Shelby County killed the Voting Rights Act's preventive tool; Louisiana v. Callais targets its remedial tool. Together, they would dismantle the entire enforcement architecture of the law that enabled modern Black political representation.
3 of 3
1993
Shaw v. Reno and the Racial Gerrymandering Doctrine
The Supreme Court ruled 5-4 that North Carolina's 12th congressional district—a serpentine, 160-mile-long district drawn to create a second majority-Black district—could violate the Fourteenth Amendment's equal protection clause because race appeared to be the predominant factor in drawing it. Justice O'Connor wrote that racial classifications are 'antithetical to the Fourteenth Amendment' even when used to benefit minority voters.
Then
Created legal tension between VRA requirement to prevent vote dilution and equal protection prohibition on race-based classifications.
Now
States gained ability to challenge majority-minority districts as racial gerrymandering, limiting VRA remedies.
Why this matters now
Louisiana v. Callais weaponizes Shaw v. Reno's logic to argue that compliance with the Voting Rights Act itself is unconstitutional. White plaintiffs claim being placed in a majority-Black district violates their constitutional rights—turning anti-discrimination law into a tool for challenging remedies to discrimination.
