Kaja Kallas

Force in Play

Failed to build consensus for extending existing EU naval mandate

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) shut the Strait of Hormuz on February 28, 2026, after United States and Israeli strikes, choking off about a fifth of global oil supply, driving Brent crude above $126 a barrel, and slashing tanker traffic by 70 percent. A coalition of more than 40 countries—led by the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Japan—coordinated diplomatic and economic pressure in an April 3 UK-hosted meeting but has not deployed naval assets, awaiting a ceasefire and UN mandate that remains elusive. The US aerial campaign persists, but President Trump has rejected leading diplomacy, insisting allies handle their own energy security.

Updated 3 days ago

Force in Play

Leading European diplomatic response as more allies impose restrictions

Switzerland sold $119 million in arms to the United States in 2025 before halting all new orders on March 20, 2026, and closing its airspace to US military flights linked to the Iran war. Italy followed on March 22 with a suspension of new US arms export licenses. On March 30, Spain escalated the trend by closing its airspace and blocking US use of military bases for Iran war operations, citing violations of international law. These moves, rooted in neutrality and humanitarian concerns, have triggered a domino effect of European restrictions on US war logistics.

Updated Mar 30

Force in Play

Leading EU resistance to military involvement in Iran war

For 23 days since February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel have conducted bombing campaigns against Iran under Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion, prompting Iranian retaliation against US bases and strikes on NATO-linked sites including French bases in Abu Dhabi, RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus, and a missile over Turkey. France authorized US support aircraft at Istres air base on March 5 with strict limits, but on March 16 European NATO allies rejected President Trump's demands for military assistance to reopen the Iranian-blocked Strait of Hormuz, prompting Trump to blast the alliance as making a 'very foolish mistake' and declare the US needs no one's help.

Updated Mar 22

Rule Changes

Coordinating EU diplomatic and sanctions response

The Group of Seven industrialized nations and their allies have tried since late 2022 to curb Russia’s oil income by capping the price of its seaborne crude, using their dominance in shipping and insurance to keep barrels flowing while limiting revenue for the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine. In February 2026, the European Union and United Kingdom began enforcing a reduced cap of 44.10 dollars per barrel under a dynamic mechanism that adjusts every 22 weeks to stay 15% below average market prices for Russia’s Urals crude, but the United States has so far kept its own 60‑dollar ceiling in place.

Updated Mar 7

Rule Changes

Led the designation effort

For over two decades, the European Union resisted designating Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization, wary of severing diplomatic ties with Tehran. On January 29, 2026, that resistance collapsed. All 27 EU foreign ministers voted unanimously to place the IRGC on the same legal footing as al-Qaeda, Hamas, and Islamic State—a designation that triggers automatic asset freezes and travel bans across the bloc. Within hours, the United Kingdom signaled it would follow suit with separate legislation targeting hostile state agencies.

Updated Jan 31

Rule Changes

Signed Security and Defence Partnership with India

India and the European Union became strategic partners in 2004. Twenty-one years later, at the 16th EU-India Summit on January 27, 2026, they signed a Security and Defence Partnership that makes India the third Asian country—after Japan and South Korea—to gain formal access to European defence initiatives. The two sides also concluded negotiations on a historic free trade agreement covering 2 billion people and representing a combined market of $27 trillion. Once the FTA completes legal vetting and enters force in 2027, Indian firms will be able to participate in the EU's €150 billion SAFE rearmament programme.

Updated Jan 30