Kevin Warsh

Money Moves

Nominated; Senate confirmation pending

For the past year and a half, the Federal Reserve has been carefully lowering interest rates, trying to guide the economy toward a soft landing after the post-pandemic inflation surge. On March 6, 2026, two pieces of news arrived simultaneously that may have closed that window. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the United States economy shed 92,000 jobs in February—the worst monthly reading in years—while Brent crude oil held above $85 a barrel after Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz choked off roughly a fifth of the world's oil supply. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 785 points as traders priced in what many had feared but few expected to see confirmed in a single morning: the ingredients for stagflation.

Updated Mar 6

Rule Changes

Nominated by Trump on January 30, 2026; awaiting Senate confirmation

No president has fired a sitting Federal Reserve governor in the central bank's 112-year history. Donald Trump is trying to be the first—and to replace the Fed chair with a loyalist. His August 2025 attempt to remove Governor Lisa Cook over unproven mortgage fraud allegations escalated into a Supreme Court showdown that exposed the fragility of Fed independence. In a striking January 21, 2026 hearing, all nine justices—including three Trump appointees—expressed skepticism about Trump's removal claims, with Justice Brett Kavanaugh warning the administration's position "would weaken, if not shatter, the independence of the Federal Reserve." Fed Chair Jerome Powell attended the arguments and later called the case "perhaps the most important legal case in the Fed's 113-year history." Nine days later, Trump nominated Kevin Warsh, a 55-year-old former Fed governor and longtime Trump ally, to replace Powell when his term expires in May 2026.

Updated Feb 5

Money Moves

Nominated by Trump as Fed Chair on January 30, 2026; confirmation threatened by Senate Banking Committee 12-12 deadlock

On January 30, 2026, President Trump nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair when his term expires in May. Markets reacted violently: gold, which had surged to a record $5,626 per ounce amid the constitutional crisis over Powell's criminal investigation, plunged 11% in hours as investors bet Warsh would preserve central bank independence. Silver crashed 30% in its worst day since 1980. The dollar index spiked to 97.14, recovering from multi-year lows below 96. However, by February 3-5, gold rebounded to $5,070 as investors reassessed the confirmation timeline and Powell investigation trajectory. The rally began January 26 when gold broke $5,000 for the first time, driven by the unprecedented DOJ grand jury subpoenas served January 9 over Powell's congressional testimony about a $2.5 billion headquarters renovation.

Updated Feb 5

Money Moves

Awaiting Senate confirmation; term would begin May 2026

Bitcoin has now fallen over 50% from its October 2025 peak of $126,000, hitting fresh 15-month lows around $66,000-$67,000 by February 5 after plunging 11% in a single day—triggering over $1 billion in new liquidations and extending the longest losing streak since 2018's crypto winter.

Updated Feb 5

Money Moves

Awaiting Senate confirmation; faces opposition from Senator Thom Tillis

Gold touched $5,600 per ounce on January 29, 2026—its highest price in history. Silver peaked above $121. Three days later, gold had lost 21% and silver had cratered 40%, erasing roughly $15 trillion in market value in one of the most violent precious metals selloffs since 1980.

Updated Feb 2

Rule Changes

Officially nominated by Trump on January 30, 2026; confirmation blocked by Republican Senator Tillis pending resolution of Powell DOJ probe

The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.5-3.75% on January 28, 2026, in a 10-2 vote that exposed a stunning reversal in internal divisions. Fed Governors Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point cut—the first time two sitting governors have dissented together in decades. Just six weeks earlier in December, the vote split 9-3 the opposite direction: Miran wanted a 50 basis-point cut while Goolsbee and Schmid opposed any cut at all. The December minutes revealed even supporters called that decision "finely balanced." Now the battle lines have shifted entirely, with some hawks turning dovish while the 2026 FOMC voting rotation brought three new hawks—Cleveland's Beth Hammack, Dallas's Lorie Logan, and Minneapolis's Neel Kashkari—replacing Chicago's Goolsbee and Kansas City's Schmid. Miran's four-month term expired January 31, though he stated he will remain until Trump names a permanent replacement.

Updated Feb 1

Money Moves

Leading candidate per prediction markets (41% probability)

For the fifth consecutive year, U.S. inflation will finish above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. December's CPI report showed prices rising 2.7% year-over-year—unchanged from November and 0.7 percentage points above the Fed's goal. Core inflation came in at 2.6%, slightly below forecasts. The data confirms what markets already expected: no rate cut at the January 27-28 FOMC meeting, where the Fed will also release updated economic projections.

Updated Jan 15