Kevin Warsh

Money Moves

Awaiting Senate confirmation; signaled support for executive-branch influence over international swap line decisions

The United Arab Emirates joined OPEC in 1967, when crude sold for under $2 a barrel. On May 1, 2026, after fifty-nine years, it walks out—taking roughly 13% of OPEC's production capacity, according to the International Energy Agency.

Updated May 31

Money Moves

Confirmation hearing scheduled April 21; all 11 Senate Banking Democrats demanding postponement; Tillis blockade unresolved; disclosed $131M-$209M in assets including SpaceX and Polymarket stakes

The six largest American banks wrapped up first-quarter 2026 reporting with combined net income of $47.3 billion, with trading floors thriving on Iran war volatility even as the outlook darkened. JPMorgan earned $5.94 per share on $50.54 billion in revenue as fixed-income trading surged 21 percent to $7.08 billion, while Citigroup posted its best quarterly revenue in a decade at $24.63 billion. Bank of America earned $1.11 per share, its highest in nearly two decades. Morgan Stanley posted a record equities trading quarter of $5.15 billion and a 29 percent jump in profit. Goldman Sachs led the week with record equities trading revenue of $5.33 billion. The banks announced roughly 5,000 job cuts, using the profit windfall to trim headcount rather than expand.

Updated May 31

Money Moves

Nominated; Senate confirmation pending

For the past year and a half, the Federal Reserve has been carefully lowering interest rates, trying to guide the economy toward a soft landing after the post-pandemic inflation surge. On March 6, 2026, two pieces of news arrived simultaneously that may have closed that window. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the United States economy shed 92,000 jobs in February—the worst monthly reading in years. Brent crude oil held above $85 after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, choking off roughly a fifth of the world's oil supply. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 785 points as traders priced in what many had feared but few expected to see confirmed in a single morning: the ingredients for stagflation.

Updated May 30

Money Moves

Awaiting Senate confirmation; term would begin May 2026

Bitcoin has fallen over 50% from its October 2025 peak of $126,000, hitting fresh 15-month lows around $66,000-$67,000 by February 5. The 11% single-day plunge triggered over $1 billion in new liquidations and extended the longest losing streak since 2018's crypto winter.

Updated May 29

Money Moves

Awaiting Senate confirmation; faces opposition from Senator Thom Tillis

Gold touched $5,600 per ounce on January 29, 2026—its highest price in history. Silver peaked above $121. Three days later, gold had lost 21% and silver had cratered 40%, erasing roughly $15 trillion in market value in one of the most violent precious metals selloffs since 1980.

Updated May 26

Rule Changes

Nominated by Trump on January 30, 2026; awaiting Senate confirmation

No president has fired a sitting Federal Reserve governor in the central bank's 112-year history. Donald Trump is trying to be the first and wants to replace the Fed chair with a loyalist.

Updated May 22

Money Moves

Nominated by Trump as Fed Chair on January 30, 2026; confirmation threatened by Senate Banking Committee 12-12 deadlock

On January 30, 2026, President Trump nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair when Powell's term expires in May. Gold, which had surged to a record $5,626 per ounce amid the constitutional crisis over Powell's criminal investigation, plunged 11% in hours as investors bet Warsh would preserve central bank independence.

Updated May 20

Money Moves

Leading candidate per prediction markets (41% probability)

For the fifth consecutive year, U.S. inflation will finish above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. December's CPI report showed prices rising 2.7% year-over-year—unchanged from November and 0.7 percentage points above the Fed's goal.

Updated May 20

Rule Changes

Officially nominated by Trump on January 30, 2026; confirmation blocked by Republican Senator Tillis pending resolution of Powell DOJ probe

The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.5-3.75% on January 28, 2026, in a 10-2 vote. Governors Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller both dissented for a 25-basis-point cut — the first time two sitting governors have dissented together in decades.

Updated May 18

Rule Changes

Chair as of May 15, 2026; first FOMC meeting June 16-17

The Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as the 17th Federal Reserve chair on May 13, 54-45—the closest such vote on record. He took over on May 15, when Jerome Powell's term expired and Powell stepped back to a regular governor seat.

Updated May 15