Bitcoin has now fallen over 50% from its October 2025 peak of $126,000, hitting fresh 15-month lows around $66,000-$67,000 by February 5 after plunging 11% in a single day—triggering over $1 billion in new liquidations and extending the longest losing streak since 2018's crypto winter.
Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds saw volatile flows including $561M inflows on February 2 followed by rapid outflows, while Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy) reported a staggering $12.4 billion Q4 2025 net loss as its massive Bitcoin position deepened underwater; markets question if the correction has bottomed or will test $60,000.
Federal Reserve Chair Nominee (Awaiting Senate confirmation; term would begin May 2026)
Jerome Powell
Chair, Federal Reserve (Under DOJ criminal investigation; term ends May 2026)
Organizations Involved
BO
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Central bank
Status: Holding rates steady amid political pressure
The U.S. central bank, which sets benchmark interest rates that influence borrowing costs and risk appetite across global markets.
BL
BlackRock
Asset Manager
Status: IBIT records inflows amid broader ETF outflows; sole major gainer Feb 3
The world's largest asset manager, whose iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) dominates the spot Bitcoin ETF market with over $62 billion in cumulative inflows since launch.
Timeline
Bitcoin Hits 15-Month Low Near $66,000
Market
BTC plunges 11% to ~$66,275, down 50% from peak with $1B+ liquidations; Fear & Greed Index signals extreme fear.
Strategy Reports $12.4B Q4 Net Loss
Corporate
Firm discloses massive unrealized Bitcoin losses as price falls below cost basis; stock tumbles after hours.
Bitcoin ETFs Post Volatile Flows
Market
$561M inflows on Feb 2 reverse to $272M outflows on Feb 3; BlackRock IBIT sole gainer amid $1.7B weekly total outflows.
Bitcoin Falls Below $80,000 for First Time Since April 2025
Market
Bitcoin trades around $78,000 after weekend crash, marking fourth consecutive monthly decline and 40% drop from October peak.
Bitcoin Crashes to $74,876
Market
In thin weekend trading, Bitcoin drops to $74,876—its lowest since April 2025. The crash triggers $2.56 billion in liquidations, the 10th-largest single-day wipeout in crypto history.
Saylor's Strategy Position Goes Underwater
Corporate
Bitcoin falls below $76,000, pushing Strategy Inc.'s average cost basis underwater for the first time since 2023.
US-Iran Tensions Spike
Geopolitical
Reports of potential military escalation between the U.S. and Iran trigger broad risk-off sentiment. Traders sell Bitcoin for liquidity rather than treating it as a safe haven.
Bitcoin Crashes 15% as Warsh Nomination Announced
Market
Bitcoin drops from $96,000 to $80,000 in a single day after Trump nominates hawkish Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair.
Fed Pauses Rate Cuts
Monetary Policy
The Federal Reserve holds rates at 3.5%-3.75%, signaling no cuts in the near term. Bitcoin falls sharply in response.
DOJ Opens Criminal Probe into Fed Chair Powell
Political
The Department of Justice serves the Federal Reserve with grand jury subpoenas. Powell calls the investigation an attempt to pressure the Fed on rates.
Bitcoin ETFs Begin Sustained Outflows
Market
Institutional investors start reducing crypto exposure. Over three months, Bitcoin ETFs will shed roughly $6 billion—the longest outflow streak since launch.
Trump's China Tariff Threat Triggers Selloff
Political
Trump threatens an additional 100% tariff on Chinese imports. Risk assets including Bitcoin begin a sustained decline.
Bitcoin Hits All-Time High of $126,000
Market
Bitcoin reaches $126,198, driven by ETF inflows, Trump administration policies, and seasonal momentum. This marks the peak of the 2024-2025 bull run.
Bitcoin Approaches $110,000 on Inauguration Day
Market
Bitcoin surges 9% as Trump takes office, approaching $110,000. The rally proves short-lived—prices decline 30% over the following months before recovering.
Trump Wins Presidential Election
Political
Donald Trump's victory sparks a crypto rally. Bitcoin trades at $69,539 on election day and begins a run that will nearly double its value.
SEC Approves Spot Bitcoin ETFs
Regulatory
The Securities and Exchange Commission approves 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs, opening the door to institutional investment. BlackRock and Fidelity dominate early inflows.
Scenarios
1
Bitcoin Tests $70,000, Stabilizes in Trading Range
Discussed by: Bitbank (Yuya Hasegawa), Carol Alexander (University of Sussex), Standard Chartered
Bitcoin finds a floor around $70,000—a key technical and psychological level—and oscillates between $70,000 and $90,000 for most of 2026. This scenario assumes the Fed eventually cuts rates, US-Iran tensions de-escalate, and institutional investors stop selling but don't aggressively buy. Standard Chartered has cut its year-end target to $150,000, suggesting a second-half recovery is still possible.
If the Fed holds rates higher for longer, geopolitical tensions persist, and ETF outflows continue, Bitcoin could revisit levels not seen since 2024. Zacks' John Blank sees $40,000 as possible within six to eight months. This scenario would likely trigger forced selling from leveraged holders and a broader crypto contagion similar to 2022.
3
Recovery Rally to New Highs
Discussed by: Nexo, Bit Mining, anonymous 4chan analyst
Fed pivot to aggressive rate cuts, resolution of US-Iran standoff, and renewed institutional buying power Bitcoin back above $100,000 and toward $150,000-$200,000. This scenario requires multiple favorable catalysts aligning. The anonymous 4chan poster who accurately predicted 2025's price movements forecasts $250,000 in 2026.
4
Prolonged Crypto Winter
Discussed by: Morgan Stanley, Fidelity, Richard Hodges (Ferro BTC Volatility Fund)
The four-year crypto bull cycle has ended. Morgan Stanley's Denny Galindo warned in November 2025 that Bitcoin was entering its "autumn" phase. Richard Hodges has told large Bitcoin holders they won't see another all-time high for 1,000 days. This scenario sees Bitcoin range-bound between $60,000-$80,000 through 2027, with sporadic rallies failing to sustain momentum.
Historical Context
2018 Crypto Winter
January 2018 - December 2018
What Happened
Bitcoin fell 84% from nearly $20,000 to $3,185 over 12 months. The crash followed the 2017 initial coin offering (ICO) boom and was triggered by exchange hacks (Coincheck lost $530 million), regulatory crackdowns in China and South Korea, and advertising bans by Facebook, Google, and Twitter. Over $700 billion in market value was erased.
Outcome
Short Term
Hundreds of ICO projects failed. Retail investors who bought at the peak suffered devastating losses. The industry entered a period of consolidation.
Long Term
The survivors built infrastructure that enabled the next cycle. DeFi protocols launched in 2019-2020. Bitcoin recovered to $64,000 by April 2021.
Why It's Relevant Today
The current four-month losing streak is the longest since 2018. Both corrections followed euphoric retail-driven peaks. The 2018 crash took 12 months to find a bottom—suggesting the current decline may have further to run.
2022 Terra/Luna and FTX Collapse
May 2022 - November 2022
What Happened
The algorithmic stablecoin TerraUSD lost its dollar peg and collapsed to near zero in May, destroying $40 billion in value. The contagion spread: Celsius Network and Three Arrows Capital failed. In November, FTX—then the third-largest crypto exchange—imploded after revelations that customer funds had been misused. Bitcoin fell from $47,000 to below $16,000.
Outcome
Short Term
Sam Bankman-Fried was arrested and later sentenced to 25 years. Do Kwon received 15 years. Over $2 trillion in total crypto market value was destroyed.
Long Term
The crisis accelerated regulatory scrutiny and the push for spot Bitcoin ETFs. The SEC approved ETFs in January 2024 partly to provide safer institutional access.
Why It's Relevant Today
Unlike 2022, the current crash stems from macroeconomic factors (Fed policy, dollar strength) rather than internal fraud or protocol failures. This suggests the industry's infrastructure is more resilient—but also that the decline reflects broader risk-off sentiment that crypto cannot escape.
2020 COVID-19 Flash Crash
March 2020
What Happened
Bitcoin fell 50% in two days—from $8,000 to $4,000—as global markets panicked over the pandemic. The crash demonstrated that during acute liquidity crises, Bitcoin trades as a risk asset, not a safe haven.
Outcome
Short Term
Bitcoin recovered within two months as central banks flooded markets with liquidity.
Long Term
The Fed's zero-rate policy and quantitative easing fueled a rally that took Bitcoin to $69,000 by November 2021.
Why It's Relevant Today
The weekend's US-Iran-driven selloff repeated the pattern: traders sold Bitcoin for cash rather than treating it as digital gold. Whether Bitcoin can reclaim safe-haven status depends on whether it decouples from equities—something it has repeatedly failed to do during stress events.
