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Bitcoin's post-peak reckoning

Bitcoin's post-peak reckoning

Money Moves

50% Crash Erases Trump Rally Gains Amid Strategy's $12B Loss

February 5th, 2026: Bitcoin Hits 15-Month Low Near $66,000

Overview

Bitcoin has now fallen over 50% from its October 2025 peak of $126,000, hitting fresh 15-month lows around $66,000-$67,000 by February 5 after plunging 11% in a single day—triggering over $1 billion in new liquidations and extending the longest losing streak since 2018's crypto winter.

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds saw volatile flows including $561M inflows on February 2 followed by rapid outflows, while Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy) reported a staggering $12.4 billion Q4 2025 net loss as its massive Bitcoin position deepened underwater; markets question if the correction has bottomed or will test $60,000.

Key Indicators

50%
Peak-to-Trough Decline
Bitcoin fell from $126,000 (Oct 2025) to ~$66,000 (Feb 5, 2026), erasing Trump rally gains
$12.4B
Strategy Q4 Net Loss
Michael Saylor's firm reports massive unrealized BTC losses as holdings slip further underwater
$1.7B+
Recent ETF Outflows
Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.7B outflows in early February after brief inflows, signaling institutional caution
5
Consecutive Monthly Losses
Longest streak since 2018 as decline accelerates past 50% drawdown

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People Involved

Organizations Involved

Timeline

January 2024 February 2026

16 events Latest: February 5th, 2026 · 4 months ago Showing 8 of 16
Tap a bar to jump to that date
  1. Bitcoin Hits 15-Month Low Near $66,000

    Latest Market

    BTC plunges 11% to ~$66,275, down 50% from peak with $1B+ liquidations; Fear & Greed Index signals extreme fear.

  2. Strategy Reports $12.4B Q4 Net Loss

    Corporate

    Firm discloses massive unrealized Bitcoin losses as price falls below cost basis; stock tumbles after hours.

  3. Bitcoin ETFs Post Volatile Flows

    Market

    $561M inflows on Feb 2 reverse to $272M outflows on Feb 3; BlackRock IBIT sole gainer amid $1.7B weekly total outflows.

  4. Bitcoin Falls Below $80,000 for First Time Since April 2025

    Market

    Bitcoin trades around $78,000 after weekend crash, marking fourth consecutive monthly decline and 40% drop from October peak.

  5. Bitcoin Crashes to $74,876

    Market

    In thin weekend trading, Bitcoin drops to $74,876—its lowest since April 2025. The crash triggers $2.56 billion in liquidations, the 10th-largest single-day wipeout in crypto history.

  6. Saylor's Strategy Position Goes Underwater

    Corporate

    Bitcoin falls below $76,000, pushing Strategy Inc.'s average cost basis underwater for the first time since 2023.

  7. US-Iran Tensions Spike

    Geopolitical

    Reports of potential military escalation between the U.S. and Iran trigger broad risk-off sentiment. Traders sell Bitcoin for liquidity rather than treating it as a safe haven.

  8. Bitcoin Crashes 15% as Warsh Nomination Announced

    Market

    Bitcoin drops from $96,000 to $80,000 in a single day after Trump nominates hawkish Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair.

  9. Fed Pauses Rate Cuts

    Monetary Policy

    The Federal Reserve holds rates at 3.5%-3.75%, signaling no cuts in the near term. Bitcoin falls sharply in response.

  10. DOJ Opens Criminal Probe into Fed Chair Powell

    Political

    The Department of Justice serves the Federal Reserve with grand jury subpoenas. Powell calls the investigation an attempt to pressure the Fed on rates.

  11. Bitcoin ETFs Begin Sustained Outflows

    Market

    Institutional investors start reducing crypto exposure. Over three months, Bitcoin ETFs will shed roughly $6 billion—the longest outflow streak since launch.

  12. Trump's China Tariff Threat Triggers Selloff

    Political

    Trump threatens an additional 100% tariff on Chinese imports. Risk assets including Bitcoin begin a sustained decline.

  13. Bitcoin Hits All-Time High of $126,000

    Market

    Bitcoin reaches $126,198, driven by ETF inflows, Trump administration policies, and seasonal momentum. This marks the peak of the 2024-2025 bull run.

  14. Bitcoin Approaches $110,000 on Inauguration Day

    Market

    Bitcoin surges 9% as Trump takes office, approaching $110,000. The rally proves short-lived—prices decline 30% over the following months before recovering.

  15. Trump Wins Presidential Election

    Political

    Donald Trump's victory sparks a crypto rally. Bitcoin trades at $69,539 on election day and begins a run that will nearly double its value.

  16. SEC Approves Spot Bitcoin ETFs

    Regulatory

    The Securities and Exchange Commission approves 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs, opening the door to institutional investment. BlackRock and Fidelity dominate early inflows.

Historical Context

3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

January 2018 - December 2018

2018 Crypto Winter

Bitcoin fell 84% from nearly $20,000 to $3,185 over 12 months. The crash followed the 2017 initial coin offering (ICO) boom and was triggered by exchange hacks (Coincheck lost $530 million), regulatory crackdowns in China and South Korea, and advertising bans by Facebook, Google, and Twitter. Over $700 billion in market value was erased.

Then

Hundreds of ICO projects failed. Retail investors who bought at the peak suffered devastating losses. The industry entered a period of consolidation.

Now

The survivors built infrastructure that enabled the next cycle. DeFi protocols launched in 2019-2020. Bitcoin recovered to $64,000 by April 2021.

Why this matters now

The current four-month losing streak is the longest since 2018. Both corrections followed euphoric retail-driven peaks. The 2018 crash took 12 months to find a bottom—suggesting the current decline may have further to run.

May 2022 - November 2022

2022 Terra/Luna and FTX Collapse

The algorithmic stablecoin TerraUSD lost its dollar peg and collapsed to near zero in May, destroying $40 billion in value. The contagion spread: Celsius Network and Three Arrows Capital failed. In November, FTX—then the third-largest crypto exchange—imploded after revelations that customer funds had been misused. Bitcoin fell from $47,000 to below $16,000.

Then

Sam Bankman-Fried was arrested and later sentenced to 25 years. Do Kwon received 15 years. Over $2 trillion in total crypto market value was destroyed.

Now

The crisis accelerated regulatory scrutiny and the push for spot Bitcoin ETFs. The SEC approved ETFs in January 2024 partly to provide safer institutional access.

Why this matters now

Unlike 2022, the current crash stems from macroeconomic factors (Fed policy, dollar strength) rather than internal fraud or protocol failures. This suggests the industry's infrastructure is more resilient—but also that the decline reflects broader risk-off sentiment that crypto cannot escape.

March 2020

2020 COVID-19 Flash Crash

Bitcoin fell 50% in two days—from $8,000 to $4,000—as global markets panicked over the pandemic. The crash demonstrated that during acute liquidity crises, Bitcoin trades as a risk asset, not a safe haven.

Then

Bitcoin recovered within two months as central banks flooded markets with liquidity.

Now

The Fed's zero-rate policy and quantitative easing fueled a rally that took Bitcoin to $69,000 by November 2021.

Why this matters now

The weekend's US-Iran-driven selloff repeated the pattern: traders sold Bitcoin for cash rather than treating it as digital gold. Whether Bitcoin can reclaim safe-haven status depends on whether it decouples from equities—something it has repeatedly failed to do during stress events.

Sources

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