All regions near Paris warming limits, study finds

Overview

Updated 1 hour ago

In northwestern North America, the past decade averaged about 3°C warmer than the late 1800s. A study published in Nature Climate Change finds that is roughly twice the global land average, which has already reached 1.9°C above preindustrial levels.

The study uses a Bayesian method that combines climate models with sparse observations to estimate human-caused warming in all 46 IPCC regions. It finds every region has already experienced 90–94% of the warming expected in a world where the global average reaches 1.5°C. The uncertainty ranges include 100%, meaning current regional warming is statistically indistinguishable from a 1.5°C world.

Why it matters

Every region has already banked most of the warming expected at 1.5°C, so adaptation plans must catch up with a climate already here.

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Key Indicators

1.9°C

Global land warming

Average land surface temperature above 1850–1900 for 2016–2025.

3.0°C

Northwestern North America warming

Regional warming above preindustrial, about twice the global land average.

90–94%

Share of 1.5°C regional warming already realized

Best estimate across IPCC regions by 2025.

65–76%

Share of 2°C regional warming already realized

Best estimate across IPCC regions by 2025.

1.4°C

Global mean warming in 2025

Attributable global average above 1850–1900.

IPCC AR6 regions assessed

All regions covered by the study.

2029

Projected 1.5°C threshold

Under SSP5-8.5, the study projects the global mean reaches 1.5°C around 2029.

Voices

Curated perspectives — historical figures and your fellow readers.

Organizations Involved

University of Victoria

Research university

Led the study

Research institution whose climate scientists produced the regional attribution study.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

International scientific body

Defines the 46 AR6 regions used in the study

The United Nations body that assesses climate science and defines the reference regions used in the study.

Nature Climate Change

Scientific journal

Published the study

Peer-reviewed journal that published the regional attribution study and a companion commentary.

Timeline

December 2015 November 2026

4 events Latest: Today

Tap a bar to jump to that date

November 2026
University of Victoria announces findings
Today Statement

News release highlights 1.9°C land warming and 3°C in northwestern North America.
Today
Study published in Nature Climate Change
Research

Bayesian analysis estimates attributable warming for all IPCC regions.
Yesterday
August 2021
IPCC AR6 defines regional framework
Report

The Sixth Assessment Report sets the 46 reference regions used in the study.
August 9th, 2021
December 2015
Paris Agreement adopted
Treaty

Countries agree to keep warming well below 2°C and pursue 1.5°C.
December 12th, 2015

Scenarios

Global annual temperature reaches 1.5°C by 2029

Likely Resolves by End of 2030

Discussed by: Study authors and WMO climate reports

The study projects the 1.5°C global threshold around 2029 under SSP5-8.5. A single year at 1.5°C would not mean the Paris target is permanently breached, but it would mark the first annual crossing in major datasets.

2°C threshold reached by 2042 under high-emissions path

Possible Resolves by End of 2043

Discussed by: Study authors

Under SSP5-8.5, the study projects the 2°C global threshold around 2042. That path assumes high emissions continue, so slower emissions growth would push the date later.

IPCC AR7 cites regional attribution method

Uncertain Resolves by End of 2029

Discussed by: Climate attribution researchers

The study's Bayesian method fills observation gaps in Africa, South America and the polar regions. If the next IPCC assessment adopts it, regional warming estimates could become standard in adaptation planning.

Historical Context

2 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

December 2015

Paris Agreement (2015)

At COP21, 195 countries agreed to hold global warming well below 2°C and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. The deal relied on national pledges rather than binding emissions caps.

Then

Countries submitted initial pledges that fell short of the temperature goals.

Now

The 1.5°C target became a benchmark for climate policy, adaptation finance and loss-and-damage talks.

Why this matters now

The new study measures how much of that 1.5°C-equivalent warming each region has already experienced.

August 2021

IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (2021)

The IPCC's Working Group I report concluded human influence had warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land. It also defined the AR6 reference regions used in the new study.

Then

It became the standard scientific reference for regional climate impacts.

Now

Its regional framework allowed later attribution studies to compare warming across all inhabited continents.

Why this matters now

The new study fills the regional observation gaps that AR6 flagged, especially in Africa and South America.