Half of India's coal-fired plants run critically low on fuel

Overview

Updated 1 hour ago

More than half of India's coal-fired power units are running on critically low fuel. The Central Electricity Authority counted 96 units with inadequate stockpiles on October 19, up from 60 a month earlier.

India gets nearly 70% of its electricity from coal, so the squeeze pressures the whole grid. A weak monsoon cut hydropower output, and El Niño-linked heat lifted demand, draining stocks to a five-year low.

The government ordered more than 100 plants to run at full capacity through year-end under emergency provisions. It shelved a plan to mandate coal imports because seaborne prices are high and the rupee is weak. Gujarat has already asked factories to curb power use.

Why it matters

With coal supplying nearly 70% of India's electricity, depleted stockpiles raise the risk of rolling blackouts for more than a billion people.

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Key Indicators

Coal-fired units with critically low fuel

Reported by the Central Electricity Authority on October 19, up from 60 a month earlier.

47%

Coal plants at critical fuel levels

Power ministry data as of October 17 shows about half of plants holding less than a quarter of required fuel.

Stations with four days of fuel or less

As of October 4, more than two-fifths of the coal fleet at minimum operating stockpile.

13.3%

Year-over-year rise in September coal-fired generation

Hydro output fell 20% in the same month, pushing more load onto coal plants.

Voices

Curated perspectives — historical figures and your fellow readers.

Ever wondered what historical figures would say about today's headlines?

Organizations Involved

Central Electricity Authority

Federal regulatory body

Monitoring coal inventories; reported 96 units critically low on October 19

India's Central Electricity Authority tracks power generation and coal stockpiles at plants across the country.

Coal India Limited

State-owned mining company

Under government pressure to boost output and speed transport to power stations

State-owned miner that supplies most of India's domestic coal and is the main lever the government can pull to rebuild stockpiles.

Ministry of Power, Government of India

Federal government ministry

Ordered full-capacity operation of captive plants; shelved import mandate

India's federal ministry for electricity, which invoked emergency provisions to keep coal plants running at full capacity through year-end.

Timeline

May 2026 October 2026

9 events Latest: Today

Tap a bar to jump to that date

October 2026
POWER magazine covers CEA data as demand soars
Today Report

POWER reports the CEA figures; more than half of units now run low as hydropower lags and heat keeps demand high.
Today
CEA reports 96 units critically low; import mandate shelved
Data

Central Electricity Authority says 96 units are critically low; Bloomberg reports the government dropped a coal-import mandate over cost.
2 days ago
Half of plants at critical coal levels
Data

Power ministry data shows nearly half of coal-fired plants holding less than a quarter of mandated fuel.
4 days ago
69 stations hold four days of fuel or less
Data

More than two-fifths of the coal fleet sits at minimum operating stockpile, a level last seen in December 2021.
October 4th, 2026
September 2026
Government orders 100+ plants to full capacity
Mandate

Power ministry invokes emergency provisions of the Electricity Act to run captive coal plants at maximum output from October 1.
September 25th, 2026
Nearly 40% of coal plants critically low
Data

Grid India data shows about 40% of coal-fired plants below critical fuel thresholds as peak demand holds between 230 and 250 GW.
September 21st, 2026
60 coal-fired units at low fuel stocks
Data

Central Electricity Authority counts 60 units with low coal, a figure that climbs to 96 within a month.
September 2026
September power deficit reaches 560 million kWh
Data

Worst September shortage in nearly a decade; deficit is the highest since August 2023.
September 2026
May 2026
Peak power demand hits record 270.70 GW
Measurement

All-time high for electricity demand as summer heat drives cooling load across the country.
May 2026

Scenarios

Cooler weather lets coal stocks rebuild to normal

Possible Resolves by Q1 2027

Discussed by: Elara Capital analyst Rupesh Sankhe (quoted in The Hindu BusinessLine); government statements on Coal India output

November through February is India's coolest stretch. Cooling demand drops, giving Coal India and the railways room to rebuild stockpiles before next summer. If mining and rail bottlenecks clear while demand eases, inventory cover could climb back toward the 15-day target.

Rolling power cuts spread across states

Possible Resolves by End of 2026

Discussed by: Reuters, Business Standard (reporting states seeking extra power), Gujarat's factory curbs

If coal deliveries lag demand into November, more states follow Gujarat in trimming industrial consumption or imposing load shedding. A continued hydropower shortfall would deepen the gap. Nearly 90% of depleted plants sit far from mines, so rail bottlenecks are the trigger to watch.

Government reinstates a coal import mandate

Unlikely Resolves by Jan 31, 2027

Discussed by: The Economic Times, POWER magazine (reporting the shelved proposal)

The ministry set aside a plan to require imported-coal blending because seaborne prices are high and the rupee is weak. If the crunch deepens, or if coal prices fall and the currency steadies, the government could reverse course and order plants to blend imported coal with domestic supply. That would mark a shift from the current approach of relying on Coal India.

Historical Context

3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

October–December 2021

India's 2021 Coal Crunch (2021)

As India's economy rebounded from COVID lockdowns, coal stockpiles at power plants fell to critically low levels, with many plants holding only days of supply. Several states imposed power cuts as utilities struggled to buy enough fuel at rising prices.

Then

The government ordered Coal India to ramp up output and directed utilities to secure imports; stocks gradually recovered over several months.

Now

The episode exposed chronic under-investment in domestic coal logistics and pushed the government to keep pushing Coal India toward higher production.

Why this matters now

December 2021 was the last time inventories were this low, per The Hindu BusinessLine. The same lever—Coal India output plus imports—is now being pulled again.

July 2012

India's 2012 Blackout (July 2012)

Two consecutive grid failures in late July 2012 left roughly 620 million people—about 9% of the world's population—without power across northern and eastern India. Northern states over-drew electricity and grid operators lost control of frequency.

Then

Grids were restored within days, but the event exposed severe weaknesses in grid management and generation capacity.

Now

It triggered grid reforms, better load-management rules, and renewed investment in generating capacity, including coal plants.

Why this matters now

Shows the downstream failure mode if a coal supply crunch turns into a generation shortfall while the grid is under stress from heat-driven demand.

September–October 2021

China's 2021 Power Crunch (2021)

A coal price spike and domestic coal shortage in China led provinces to impose rolling blackouts, hitting factories and forcing output cuts across industrial sectors. Thermal plants ran with days of fuel as demand for electricity outran supply.

Then

Beijing ordered miners to raise output and pushed utilities to secure spot coal; the crunch eased into 2022 as weather cooled.

Now

The episode accelerated China's push for renewable capacity and grid battery storage, though coal remains the dominant power source.

Why this matters now

A close international parallel for how a large coal-dependent economy responds to a supply squeeze—with the same outcome: loaded onto coal output and imports until demand cools.