China's coal share of electricity falls below half

Overview

For as long as China has had a modern power grid, coal has generated most of its electricity. In the first half of 2026, that ended. Coal supplied 49.7% of China's power, dropping below half for the first time.

The shift is real but narrower than the headline suggests. Coal's slice shrank because wind and solar grew faster, not because China burned less coal. Demand from factories, electric cars, and AI data centers is rising so fast that total coal generation is still going up.

Why it matters

China burns about a third of the world's coal, so whether its coal use rises or falls sets the pace for global carbon emissions.

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Key Indicators

49.7%

Coal's share of electricity

Coal's portion of China's power output in the first half of 2026, below 50% for the first time.

41.2%

Renewables' share of electricity

Wind, solar, hydro, and biomass combined in the first half of 2026.

1,950 GW

Wind and solar capacity

Combined installed wind and solar capacity by end of June 2026, up 16.8% in a year.

+2%

CO2 emissions, early 2026

China's energy and industry carbon emissions still rose in the first quarter of 2026.

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People Involved

Xi Jinping

In office; set the country's carbon targets

Lauri Myllyvirta

Tracks China's power and emissions data

Organizations Involved

China Electricity Council

Industry body

Reports the power-mix data behind the milestone

The main industry group that compiles and publishes China's electricity generation and capacity statistics.

National Energy Administration

Government agency

Sets China's renewable capacity targets

China's central energy regulator, which sets and tracks the country's wind, solar, and coal targets.

Timeline

September 2020 July 2026

6 events Latest: 7 days ago

Tap a bar to jump to that date

July 2026
China publishes the milestone data
Latest Report

The China Electricity Council releases first-half figures confirming coal below 50% and wind-plus-solar capacity at 1,950 gigawatts.
7 days ago
June 2026
Coal's share falls below half
Milestone

Over the first half of 2026, coal supplies 49.7% of China's electricity, the first time below 50%. Renewables reach 41.2%.
June 30th, 2026
Emissions rise despite record clean power
Analysis

CREA analysis finds China's CO2 rose about 2% in early 2026 as some wind and solar output was curtailed rather than used.
June 4th, 2026
March 2026
Wind and solar capacity passes coal
Milestone

Installed wind and solar capacity surpasses thermal capacity for the first time, reaching about 47.3% of the national total.
March 26th, 2026
December 2025
China's power-sector emissions fall for a full year
Milestone

For the first time, China records a full-year drop in carbon emissions from its power sector, driven by record clean-energy growth.
December 31st, 2025
September 2020
Xi sets China's carbon deadlines
Policy

Xi Jinping tells the UN that China will peak carbon emissions before 2030 and reach neutrality before 2060.
September 22nd, 2020

Historical Context

3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

2007-2016

US shale gas displaces coal (2007-2016)

Cheap shale gas from hydraulic fracturing flooded the US market. Coal's share of US electricity fell from about 50% to around 30% in under a decade as utilities switched fuels.

Then

Coal plants closed or ran less; power-sector emissions dropped without any national mandate.

Now

The US showed a dominant fuel can lose half its market fast when a cheaper rival scales up.

Why this matters now

China's coal decline is driven by wind and solar rather than gas, but the pattern is the same: a cheaper competitor eats a fuel's share far faster than anyone predicted.

2012-2024

United Kingdom's coal phase-out (2012-2024)

Britain got about 40% of its power from coal in 2012. A carbon price and wind buildout cut that to near zero, and the UK closed its last coal plant in 2024.

Then

The UK ran its first coal-free days in 2017 and stretched them into weeks by 2019.

Now

A major industrial economy fully exited coal power in about twelve years.

Why this matters now

The UK shows how far a coal decline can run once it starts. China is far larger and still building coal, but crossing below 50% is where the UK's steep drop began.

2011-2019

Germany's Energiewende and emissions plateau (2011-2019)

After the Fukushima disaster, Germany expanded renewables fast while phasing out nuclear power. Coal filled part of the nuclear gap, so carbon emissions barely fell for years despite record clean-energy growth.

Then

Renewables' share climbed, but coal stayed high and emissions plateaued.

Now

Germany learned that adding clean power does not cut emissions if it displaces nuclear or if demand keeps rising.

Why this matters now

This is the cautionary case for China. A rising renewable share and a falling coal share can still coexist with flat or rising emissions if total electricity demand keeps climbing.