California's top-two primary tests Democratic statewide dominance
Rule ChangesFragmented Democratic field of 61 candidates faces consolidated Republican vote in race to replace Newsom
June 2nd, 2026: California holds top-two gubernatorial primaryNew here? Follow stories to track developments over time. Create a free account to get updates when stories you care about change.
Overview
Updated Jun 2Republicans haven't won a statewide race in California since Arnold Schwarzenegger's 2006 reelection. Today's gubernatorial primary could put them on the November ballot anyway.
Under California's top-two system, the two highest finishers advance to the general election regardless of party. Democrat Xavier Becerra leads at 23%, but Tom Steyer (15%) and Katie Porter (12%) are splitting the rest of the Democratic vote. Republicans Steve Hilton (20%) and Chad Bianco (13%) are not.
Why it matters
If two Republicans advance, Democrats lose the largest state's governor's race before November ballots are even printed.
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Timeline
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The office runs California elections and certifies official results.
The state party has not produced a statewide winner since 2006.
The dominant party in California politics, now risking a top-two shutout.
Timeline
June 2010 June 2026
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California holds top-two gubernatorial primary
Latest ElectionVoters cast ballots in a 61-candidate primary that could send two Republicans to November for the first time since the top-two system began.
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Final pre-primary polls
PollingBecerra 23%, Hilton 20%, Steyer 15%, Bianco 13%, Porter 12%. Democrats split three ways; Republicans split two.
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Trump endorses Bianco
EndorsementPresident Trump's primary endorsement consolidates conservative voters but does not push Bianco past Hilton.
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Internal Democratic memo warns of shutout risk
StrategyA leaked party memo warns that three Democrats and two Republicans could push the GOP into both runoff slots.
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State Democrats decline to endorse
Party DecisionCalifornia Democratic Party convention votes against a pre-primary endorsement, leaving the field open.
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Steyer enters Democratic primary
Campaign LaunchBillionaire Tom Steyer announces, deepening the Democratic vote split.
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Becerra launches campaign
Campaign LaunchFormer HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra enters with Newsom-world consultants and labor backing.
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Porter announces second statewide bid
Campaign LaunchKatie Porter declares months after losing the 2024 US Senate primary to Adam Schiff.
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Bianco enters as second GOP candidate
Campaign LaunchRiverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco announces, splitting the Republican field.
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Hilton announces candidacy
Campaign LaunchSteve Hilton becomes the first major Republican to enter the race, announcing on Fox News.
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Voters approve Proposition 14
Rule ChangeCalifornia adopts the top-two primary system. Starting in 2012, all candidates run on the same primary ballot and the top two advance regardless of party.
Historical Context
3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.
California gubernatorial recall (2003)
Voters recalled Democratic Governor Gray Davis and elected Arnold Schwarzenegger to replace him on the same ballot. The recall election drew 135 candidates and was the first successful gubernatorial recall in California history.
Schwarzenegger took office two months later, ending five years of Democratic control of the governor's office.
The recall showed that a fragmented field plus an unusual ballot format can deliver a result the dominant party didn't expect.
The recall is the precedent for a Republican winning a California governor's race through ballot mechanics rather than a partisan swing. The top-two system in 2026 could deliver a similar result through a different mechanism.
Schwarzenegger reelection (2006)
Arnold Schwarzenegger defeated state treasurer Phil Angelides by 17 points to win a full term as governor. Schwarzenegger had originally taken office through the 2003 recall of Gray Davis. His 2006 win was the last time a Republican won any statewide California office.
Schwarzenegger governed as a moderate, broke with national Republicans on climate, and left office in 2011 with low approval.
California Republican registration dropped from 35% in 2002 to under 24% by 2026, and no Republican has won statewide since.
Twenty years is the drought a 2026 Republican advancement would interrupt. The last time it happened, the winner was a Hollywood celebrity governing from the center, not a Fox News host or a Trump-endorsed sheriff.
California US Senate primary (2016)
Kamala Harris and Loretta Sanchez, both Democrats, finished first and second in the top-two primary for Barbara Boxer's open Senate seat. The November runoff was the first statewide federal race in California with no Republican on the ballot. Harris won with 62% in November.
Republicans were shut out of a major Senate race in the country's largest state for the first time in modern history.
The 2016 result confirmed that top-two could produce same-party runoffs and remove the GOP from statewide competition entirely.
The 2026 governor's race could produce the mirror image: a runoff with no Democrat on the ballot. The mechanism that excluded Republicans in 2016 can exclude Democrats in 2026 if the vote splits the other way.
