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2025-2026 special election wave

2025-2026 special election wave

Rule Changes
By Newzino Staff |

Democratic Overperformance During Trump's Second Term

January 31st, 2026: Rehmet Wins by 14 Points Despite 10-to-1 Spending Deficit

Overview

Republicans have held Texas Senate District 9 since 1991. On February 1, 2026, a 33-year-old aircraft mechanic and union leader flipped it by 14 points—in a district Trump carried by 17 points just 14 months earlier. Taylor Rehmet was outspent roughly 10-to-1, lacked Trump's endorsement (his opponent had it), and won anyway.

The upset extends a pattern that's made Republican strategists nervous: Democrats have overperformed their expected margins by an average of 18 points in special elections during Trump's second term—better than the 8-point average that preceded the 2018 blue wave. Whether this translates to midterm gains depends on turnout dynamics that special elections may not capture, but the directional signal is consistent across red, purple, and blue terrain.

Key Indicators

+31
Point Swing in TX SD-9
Rehmet won by 14 points in a district Trump won by 17—a 31-point shift from the 2024 presidential result.
18+
Avg. Dem Overperformance
Democrats are outperforming baseline partisan lean by 18+ points in 2025 special elections, exceeding 2017's 8-point average.
21%
GOP Seats Flipped
Democrats flipped 21% of Republican-held state legislative seats contested in special elections during 2025.
10:1
Spending Disadvantage
Rehmet spent $70,000 against Wambsganss's $736,000—and won by double digits.

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Jane Addams

Jane Addams

(1860-1935) · Progressive Era · social reform

Fictional AI pastiche — not real quote.

"One need not endorse every policy position to recognize that when working people organize and speak with a unified voice, they possess a power no amount of wealthy patronage can easily silence. Perhaps what alarms the strategists most is not the arithmetic of votes, but the unwelcome reminder that democracy—when genuinely practiced—remains stubbornly unpredictable."

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Debate Arena

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People Involved

Taylor Rehmet
Taylor Rehmet
Texas State Senator-Elect, District 9 (Won special election January 31, 2026; will serve through end of 2026)
Leigh Wambsganss
Leigh Wambsganss
Republican Candidate, Texas Senate District 9 (Lost runoff; will face Rehmet again in November 2026 general election)
Dan Patrick
Dan Patrick
Lieutenant Governor of Texas (Presiding officer of Texas Senate; backed Wambsganss)

Organizations Involved

Texas State Senate
Texas State Senate
State Legislature
Status: Republicans hold 19-12 majority after Rehmet's win

The upper chamber of the Texas Legislature, where Republicans have held a supermajority for years.

Democratic National Committee
Democratic National Committee
Political Party Committee
Status: Citing special election results as evidence of 2026 momentum

The national governing body of the Democratic Party, responsible for coordinating campaign strategy.

Timeline

  1. Rehmet Wins by 14 Points Despite 10-to-1 Spending Deficit

    Election

    Democrat Taylor Rehmet won 57% to 43%, flipping a seat Trump carried by 17 points. Wambsganss outspent him roughly $736,000 to $70,000.

  2. Trump Endorses Wambsganss

    Endorsement

    President Trump posted endorsement of Wambsganss on Truth Social, calling her a "GREAT Candidate" and urging voters to "KEEP TEXAS RED."

  3. Democrats Sweep Statewide Elections

    Election

    Democrats won all 13 statewide elections held on Election Day, including Virginia and New Jersey governor races.

  4. Rehmet Leads Three-Way Race, Forces Runoff

    Election

    Democrat Taylor Rehmet finished first with 43% in the special election; Leigh Wambsganss advanced to runoff with second-place finish.

  5. Abbott Sets November Special Election

    Procedural

    Governor Greg Abbott scheduled November 4 special election and potential January 31 runoff for Senate District 9.

  6. Kelly Hancock Resigns Texas Senate Seat

    Vacancy

    Four-term Republican state senator resigned to become acting Texas comptroller, creating District 9 vacancy.

  7. Pennsylvania Senate Seat Flips Democratic

    Election

    Democrats won a special election for Pennsylvania's 36th Senate District, previously held by Republicans.

  8. Trump Begins Second Term

    Political

    Donald Trump inaugurated for second presidential term, resetting the political environment for special elections.

  9. Democrats Flip 40+ House Seats

    Historical Context

    Following consistent special election overperformance, Democrats gained 40 House seats in the midterms—their largest gain since Watergate.

  10. Doug Jones Wins Alabama Senate Seat

    Historical Context

    Democrat Doug Jones won a Senate special election in deep-red Alabama, foreshadowing the 2018 blue wave.

Scenarios

1

2018 Repeats: Democrats Flip House in 2026 Wave

Discussed by: CNN, University of Virginia Center for Politics, Democratic strategists

If special election overperformance (18+ points) translates to midterm margins, Democrats could flip 30-50 House seats and make gains in state legislatures. Historical precedent: 2017-2018 saw similar patterns, and Democrats gained 40 House seats. Key variable: whether special election turnout dynamics—driven by motivated base voters—scale to higher-turnout general elections.

2

Special Elections Overstate Democratic Strength

Discussed by: Republican strategists, some polling analysts

Special elections attract disproportionately motivated opposition-party voters. When Trump is on the ballot or turnout normalizes, Republican margins recover. Precedent: Texas House District 118 flipped Republican in a 2021 special election, only to flip back to Democrats in 2022's higher-turnout general. Rehmet faces Wambsganss again in November 2026 under different conditions.

3

Economic or Foreign Policy Shift Resets Political Environment

Discussed by: Political forecasters, economic analysts

If economic conditions improve or a major foreign policy event rallies voters around the president, current trends could reverse. Trump's approval ratings, currently depressed by tariff policies and economic concerns, are the key variable. If approval rises above 45%, historical patterns suggest reduced midterm losses.

4

Democrats Expand Texas Competitiveness Beyond Suburbs

Discussed by: Texas Tribune, Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee

Rehmet's profile—working-class, veteran, union leader—represents a different Democratic archetype than college-educated suburban voters. If this model succeeds in November and spreads to similar districts, Democrats could compete in rural and exurban Texas seats previously considered safe Republican. This would reshape the 2026 map beyond traditional suburban battlegrounds.

Historical Context

2017-2018 Trump-Era Special Elections

January 2017 - November 2018

What Happened

During Trump's first term, Democrats overperformed their expected margins by 8-16 points in special elections. Doug Jones won an Alabama Senate seat in December 2017—the first Democratic Senate victory there in 25 years. Conor Lamb won a Pennsylvania House seat Trump had carried by 20 points.

Outcome

Short Term

Democrats used special election momentum to boost fundraising and candidate recruitment for 2018.

Long Term

Democrats flipped 40 House seats in 2018, their largest gain since Watergate, and took control of the chamber.

Why It's Relevant Today

Current special election margins (18+ points) exceed 2017-2018 levels, suggesting similar or greater potential for 2026 gains—though critics note special elections don't always predict general election outcomes.

Scott Brown's Massachusetts Senate Upset (2010)

January 2010

What Happened

Republican Scott Brown won a special election for Ted Kennedy's Massachusetts Senate seat—the first Republican to win a Senate race in the state since 1972. Brown ran against the Affordable Care Act and captured anti-Democratic sentiment.

Outcome

Short Term

Brown's victory ended Democrats' filibuster-proof Senate majority and complicated ACA passage.

Long Term

Republicans gained 63 House seats in the 2010 midterms, their largest gain since 1938.

Why It's Relevant Today

Demonstrates how special elections in one party's stronghold can signal broader voter discontent. Brown's win in deep-blue Massachusetts preceded a Republican wave; Rehmet's win in deep-red Texas may signal the reverse.

2006 Democratic Wave

November 2006

What Happened

Democrats gained 31 House seats and 6 Senate seats during George W. Bush's second term, driven by opposition to the Iraq War and Bush's declining approval. Democrats also gained 6 governorships. Republicans failed to flip a single Democratic-held seat nationwide.

Outcome

Short Term

Nancy Pelosi became the first female Speaker of the House.

Long Term

Established template for midterm wave elections driven by presidential unpopularity.

Why It's Relevant Today

Shows how second-term presidents often face significant midterm losses. Current Democratic special election performance mirrors patterns that preceded the 2006 wave.

10 Sources: