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2025-2026 special election wave

2025-2026 special election wave

Rule Changes

Democratic Overperformance During Trump's Second Term

January 31st, 2026: Rehmet Wins by 14 Points Despite 10-to-1 Spending Deficit

Overview

Republicans have held Texas Senate District 9 since 1991. On February 1, 2026, a 33-year-old aircraft mechanic and union leader flipped it by 14 points—in a district Trump carried by 17 points just 14 months earlier. Taylor Rehmet was outspent roughly 10-to-1, lacked Trump's endorsement (his opponent had it), and won anyway.

The upset extends a pattern. Democrats have overperformed their expected margins by an average of 18 points in special elections during Trump's second term, better than the 8-point average before the 2018 blue wave. Whether this translates to midterm gains depends on turnout dynamics that special elections may not capture, but the pattern of overperformance is consistent across red, purple, and blue districts.

Key Indicators

+31
Point Swing in TX SD-9
Rehmet won by 14 points in a district Trump won by 17—a 31-point shift from the 2024 presidential result.
18+
Avg. Dem Overperformance
Democrats are outperforming baseline partisan lean by 18+ points in 2025 special elections, exceeding 2017's 8-point average.
21%
GOP Seats Flipped
Democrats flipped 21% of Republican-held state legislative seats contested in special elections during 2025.
10:1
Spending Disadvantage
Rehmet spent $70,000 against Wambsganss's $736,000—and won by double digits.

Voices

Curated perspectives — historical figures and your fellow readers.

Jane Addams

Jane Addams

(1860-1935) · Progressive Era · social reform

Fictional AI pastiche — not real quote.

"One need not endorse every policy position to recognize that when working people organize and speak with a unified voice, they possess a power no amount of wealthy patronage can easily silence. Perhaps what alarms the strategists most is not the arithmetic of votes, but the unwelcome reminder that democracy—when genuinely practiced—remains stubbornly unpredictable."

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People Involved

Organizations Involved

Timeline

December 2017 January 2026

10 events Latest: January 31st, 2026 · 4 months ago
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  1. Rehmet Wins by 14 Points Despite 10-to-1 Spending Deficit

    Latest Election

    Democrat Taylor Rehmet won 57% to 43%, flipping a seat Trump carried by 17 points. Wambsganss outspent him roughly $736,000 to $70,000.

  2. Trump Endorses Wambsganss

    Endorsement

    President Trump posted endorsement of Wambsganss on Truth Social, calling her a "GREAT Candidate" and urging voters to "KEEP TEXAS RED."

  3. Democrats Sweep Statewide Elections

    Election

    Democrats won all 13 statewide elections held on Election Day, including Virginia and New Jersey governor races.

  4. Rehmet Leads Three-Way Race, Forces Runoff

    Election

    Democrat Taylor Rehmet finished first with 43% in the special election; Leigh Wambsganss advanced to runoff with second-place finish.

  5. Abbott Sets November Special Election

    Procedural

    Governor Greg Abbott scheduled November 4 special election and potential January 31 runoff for Senate District 9.

  6. Kelly Hancock Resigns Texas Senate Seat

    Vacancy

    Four-term Republican state senator resigned to become acting Texas comptroller, creating District 9 vacancy.

  7. Pennsylvania Senate Seat Flips Democratic

    Election

    Democrats won a special election for Pennsylvania's 36th Senate District, previously held by Republicans.

  8. Trump Begins Second Term

    Political

    Donald Trump inaugurated for second presidential term, resetting the political environment for special elections.

  9. Democrats Flip 40+ House Seats

    Historical Context

    Following consistent special election overperformance, Democrats gained 40 House seats in the midterms—their largest gain since Watergate.

  10. Doug Jones Wins Alabama Senate Seat

    Historical Context

    Democrat Doug Jones won a Senate special election in deep-red Alabama, foreshadowing the 2018 blue wave.

Historical Context

3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

January 2017 - November 2018

2017-2018 Trump-Era Special Elections

During Trump's first term, Democrats overperformed their expected margins by 8-16 points in special elections. Doug Jones won an Alabama Senate seat in December 2017—the first Democratic Senate victory there in 25 years. Conor Lamb won a Pennsylvania House seat Trump had carried by 20 points.

Then

Democrats used special election momentum to boost fundraising and candidate recruitment for 2018.

Now

Democrats flipped 40 House seats in 2018, their largest gain since Watergate, and took control of the chamber.

Why this matters now

Current special election margins (18+ points) exceed 2017-2018 levels, suggesting similar or greater potential for 2026 gains—though critics note special elections don't always predict general election outcomes.

January 2010

Scott Brown's Massachusetts Senate Upset (2010)

Republican Scott Brown won a special election for Ted Kennedy's Massachusetts Senate seat—the first Republican to win a Senate race in the state since 1972. Brown ran against the Affordable Care Act and captured anti-Democratic sentiment.

Then

Brown's victory ended Democrats' filibuster-proof Senate majority and complicated ACA passage.

Now

Republicans gained 63 House seats in the 2010 midterms, their largest gain since 1938.

Why this matters now

Demonstrates how special elections in one party's stronghold can signal broader voter discontent. Brown's win in deep-blue Massachusetts preceded a Republican wave; Rehmet's win in deep-red Texas may signal the reverse.

November 2006

2006 Democratic Wave

Democrats gained 31 House seats and 6 Senate seats during George W. Bush's second term, driven by opposition to the Iraq War and Bush's declining approval. Democrats also gained 6 governorships. Republicans failed to flip a single Democratic-held seat nationwide.

Then

Nancy Pelosi became the first female Speaker of the House.

Now

Established template for midterm wave elections driven by presidential unpopularity.

Why this matters now

Shows how second-term presidents often face significant midterm losses. Current Democratic special election performance mirrors patterns that preceded the 2006 wave.

Sources

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