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Germany's far-right AfD nears state power for the first time since Nazi era

Germany's far-right AfD nears state power for the first time since Nazi era

Rule Changes

Saxony-Anhalt delivers AfD's strongest state result since 1945, testing Germany's postwar firewall against far-right rule

Today: European reaction splits as populists cheer, Warsaw warns of 'traitors'

Overview

Updated Yesterday

For the first time since 1945, a German state is poised to be governed by the far right. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) took 43.8% of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt's September 7 election, nearly an absolute majority. Chancellor Friedrich Merz's Christian Democrats trailed at 17.2%.

The result tests Germany's 'firewall': a postwar convention that mainstream parties never cooperate with the far right. The AfD needs just the left-populist BSW to abstain in the secret ballot for state premier, expected within 30 days. Mainstream parties still refuse to work with the AfD, but they may lack the numbers to stop it.

Why it matters

If Germany's firewall falls, the postwar convention against far-right governance breaks, and European parties face the same pressure in 2027 elections.

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Key Indicators

43.8%
AfD vote share in Saxony-Anhalt
The far-right party's strongest state result since 1945, just short of an absolute majority.
17.2%
CDU vote share in Saxony-Anhalt
Chancellor Merz's party lost nearly 27 points to the AfD in a state it previously led.
39
AfD seats in state parliament
The far-right party is the largest bloc but lacks an outright majority in Saxony-Anhalt's legislature.
87%
Saxony-Anhalt voters unhappy with Merz's government
An Infratest dimap poll for ARD found deep dissatisfaction with the federal coalition in the state.

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People Involved

Organizations Involved

Timeline

3 events Latest: Today
  1. European reaction splits as populists cheer, Warsaw warns of 'traitors'

    Today Reaction

    Europe's populist right celebrates the AfD's win. Poland's prime minister issues sharp condemnation. Alarm spreads across EU capitals.

  2. AfD wins Saxony-Anhalt state election with 43.8%

    Election

    The far-right party posts its strongest state result since 1945. The CDU takes just 17.2%, nearly 27 points behind.

  3. Merz tells CDU board the loss 'shook the party to its very foundations'

    Reaction

    The chancellor acknowledges the scale of the defeat in Saxony-Anhalt and faces internal party pressure.

Historical Context

3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

April 2002

France's Le Pen reaches presidential run-off (2002)

Jean-Marie Le Pen shocked France by finishing second in the first presidential round. He faced incumbent Jacques Chirac in the run-off.

Then

French mainstream parties formed a 'republican front,' and Chirac won with 82% in the run-off.

Now

The 2002 front became the template for containing the far right across Europe. Today that front has eroded: Le Pen's daughter Marine is projected to win France's 2027 presidency.

Why this matters now

Shows both how the firewall worked at its peak and how far it has decayed, the same decay now visible in Germany.

September 2022

Italy's Meloni breaks the cordon sanitaire (2022)

Giorgia Meloni's Brothers of Italy, a party with roots in the post-fascist movement, won Italy's September 2022 parliamentary election. She became the first far-right prime minister of a major EU founding state since the war.

Then

Meloni formed a right-wing coalition and faced suspicion in Brussels.

Now

She maintained NATO and EU alignments, normalizing far-right governance in Western Europe.

Why this matters now

Showed that a postwar taboo against far-right governing could break in a founding EU state. Germany was long seen as the exception because of its Nazi history.

November 2023

Netherlands' Wilders wins parliamentary election (2023)

Geert Wilders' anti-Islam Party for Freedom won the most seats in the November 2023 Dutch parliamentary election.

Then

It took months of talks before a right-wing coalition was formed, with Wilders forgoing the prime minister role to reach a compromise.

Now

Wilders' party entered government in 2024, another founding EU state where a hard-right party gained executive power.

Why this matters now

Like Italy, the Dutch example showed that countries once seen as immune could see far-right parties take power. Germany's firewall now faces the same pressure.

Sources

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