The 2004-2016 Airbus-Boeing Supercycle
Commercial aviation experienced a 12-year production boom driven by emerging market growth, fuel-efficient aircraft demand, and low interest rates. Both manufacturers ramped output to record levels, with suppliers expanding capacity to match. The cycle ended in 2016 with a 1.2% market decline—the first since 2003.
Suppliers who over-invested faced margin pressure as growth stalled.
The slowdown preceded Boeing's 737 MAX crisis and Airbus production challenges, setting up the current supply shortage.
The current supercycle differs structurally: supply constraints rather than demand weakness will likely determine its duration. GE's backlog provides visibility regardless of when OEM production normalizes.
