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The AI funding supercycle

The AI funding supercycle

Money Moves
By Newzino Staff |

How Three Companies Are Absorbing Half of Global Venture Capital

February 13th, 2026: Anthropic Closes $30 Billion Series G

Overview

Three years ago, Anthropic had not yet earned a dollar in revenue. This week, it closed a $30 billion funding round—the second-largest private tech raise in history—at a $380 billion valuation. The company now generates $14 billion in annualized revenue, having grown tenfold in each of the past three years.

The scale of capital flowing into frontier artificial intelligence has no precedent in venture history. OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI together captured 14% of all global venture investment across all sectors in 2025. The five largest cloud providers have committed up to $690 billion in capital expenditure for 2026 alone, nearly double the prior year. The question is no longer whether AI will absorb enormous capital—it's whether that capital can ever generate proportional returns.

Key Indicators

$380B
Anthropic Valuation
Post-money valuation after Series G, up from $183 billion in September 2025
$30B
Series G Raise
Second-largest private tech funding round in history, behind only OpenAI
$14B
Annual Revenue Run Rate
Revenue has grown over 10x annually for each of the past three years
50%
AI Share of Global VC
Artificial intelligence captured half of all venture capital deployed worldwide in 2025

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Ayn Rand

Ayn Rand

(1905-1982) · Cold War · philosophy

Fictional AI pastiche — not real quote.

"The spectacle of billions rushing toward those who dare to build the future is not a "supercycle"—it is justice. What the timid call "unprecedented risk," the rational mind recognizes as the proper reward for those who transform human consciousness itself, while the parasites who demand "proportional returns" reveal only that they have never created anything worth financing."

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People Involved

Dario Amodei
Dario Amodei
Chief Executive Officer, Anthropic (Leading company through hypergrowth phase)
Daniela Amodei
Daniela Amodei
President, Anthropic (Overseeing business operations and partnerships)
Sam Altman
Sam Altman
Chief Executive Officer, OpenAI (Leading OpenAI through expansion amid mounting losses)

Organizations Involved

Anthropic
Anthropic
Artificial Intelligence Company
Status: Second-largest AI lab by valuation

Developer of the Claude model family, focused on AI safety research and enterprise deployment.

OpenAI
OpenAI
Artificial Intelligence Company (Public Benefit Corporation)
Status: Largest AI lab by valuation; facing significant losses

Creator of ChatGPT and GPT model series, the most widely recognized artificial intelligence company globally.

XA
xAI
Artificial Intelligence Company
Status: Acquired by SpaceX in February 2026

Artificial intelligence company founded by Elon Musk, developer of the Grok model series.

Timeline

  1. Anthropic Closes $30 Billion Series G

    Funding

    GIC and Coatue lead second-largest private tech funding round in history; Anthropic reaches $380 billion valuation with $14 billion revenue run rate.

  2. SpaceX Acquires xAI

    M&A

    SpaceX acquires xAI in all-stock transaction valuing the AI company at $250 billion, consolidating Musk's AI and space assets.

  3. xAI Raises $20 Billion

    Funding

    Elon Musk's AI company raises $20 billion from Nvidia, Cisco, Fidelity, and sovereign wealth funds at $230 billion valuation.

  4. OpenAI Reaches $500 Billion Valuation

    Milestone

    OpenAI valuation reaches half a trillion dollars amid reports of $14 billion projected losses for 2026.

  5. Anthropic Series F: $13 Billion at $183 Billion Valuation

    Funding

    Iconiq Capital, Fidelity, and Lightspeed co-lead round that triples valuation in six months.

  6. Anthropic Reaches $61.5 Billion Valuation

    Funding

    Series E round of $3.5 billion led by Lightspeed Venture Partners more than triples company valuation.

  7. OpenAI Closes $40 Billion Round

    Funding

    SoftBank leads largest private funding round in history; OpenAI reaches $300 billion valuation.

  8. Amazon Doubles Anthropic Investment to $8 Billion

    Partnership

    Amazon announces additional $4 billion investment, bringing total commitment to $8 billion.

  9. OpenAI Raises $6.6 Billion

    Funding

    OpenAI closes largest venture round to date at $157 billion valuation, led by Thrive Capital with Microsoft and Nvidia participation.

  10. Amazon Announces $4 Billion Anthropic Investment

    Partnership

    Amazon commits up to $4 billion for minority stake; Anthropic designates Amazon Web Services as primary cloud provider.

  11. FTX Leads Anthropic Series B

    Funding

    Sam Bankman-Fried and FTX lead a $580 million round valuing Anthropic at $4 billion—investment later complicated by FTX collapse.

  12. Anthropic Founded

    Corporate

    Former OpenAI researchers Dario and Daniela Amodei launch Anthropic with $124 million in seed funding, citing disagreements over safety priorities.

Scenarios

1

AI Labs Reach Profitability, Validate Valuations

Discussed by: Anthropic management, enterprise software analysts at Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley

Anthropic reaches profitability by 2027-2028 as enterprise revenue continues growing at triple-digit rates. Claude Code and enterprise subscriptions generate sufficient margins to justify infrastructure investments. OpenAI's consumer advertising model and API revenue eventually offset compute costs by 2030. Valuations prove reasonable relative to eventual earnings, similar to how Amazon's early losses preceded sustained profitability.

2

Consolidation Accelerates, Second-Tier Labs Absorbed

Discussed by: TechCrunch, Fortune, venture capital analysts at Bessemer and Sequoia

Enterprises consolidate spending among three to five major providers. Smaller AI startups without differentiated data or vertical focus become acquisition targets. The $690 billion in planned 2026 infrastructure spending creates barriers that only the largest players can clear. Market structure resembles cloud computing: a handful of hyperscalers with specialized players in niches.

3

Revenue Growth Stalls, AI Bubble Deflates

Discussed by: Yale School of Management researchers, MIT enterprise AI studies, Ray Dalio, Paul Kedrosky

Enterprise AI adoption plateaus as companies struggle to demonstrate return on investment—MIT found 95% of organizations getting zero return from generative AI investments. Infrastructure spending outpaces monetization, mirroring the dot-com pattern where valuations rose 600% before collapsing 78%. Private valuations contract as public comparables reset lower.

4

Regulatory Intervention Restructures Industry

Discussed by: European Commission, Federal Trade Commission antitrust division, competition law scholars

Concentration of AI capabilities in three companies triggers antitrust scrutiny. Cloud providers face pressure to divest AI lab stakes or unbundle infrastructure from model access. Data center power consumption creates regulatory backlash as energy costs rise. New compliance requirements increase costs and slow deployment timelines across the industry.

Historical Context

Dot-Com Bubble (1995-2000)

March 1995 - October 2002

What Happened

Venture capital poured $100 billion annually into internet companies by 2000. The Nasdaq rose 600% in five years. Companies with no revenue commanded billion-dollar valuations based on projected future dominance. Only 14% of technology initial public offerings involved profitable companies.

Outcome

Short Term

Nasdaq fell 78% from peak. Over 50% of public dot-com companies failed by 2004. Venture funding collapsed 95%.

Long Term

Survivors including Amazon, Google, and eBay became dominant global platforms. Infrastructure investments in fiber optics enabled the next generation of internet services. Market took 15 years to reclaim 2000 highs.

Why It's Relevant Today

AI venture capital concentration (50% of global investment) now exceeds dot-com era levels. The difference: major AI labs generate substantial revenue (Anthropic: $14 billion) rather than operating on projections alone. The question is whether revenue growth can justify valuations that assume continued exponential scaling.

Facebook Pre-IPO Funding (2007-2012)

October 2007 - May 2012

What Happened

Microsoft paid $240 million for 1.6% of Facebook in 2007, implying a $15 billion valuation. By the 2012 initial public offering, the company raised $16 billion at a $104 billion market capitalization—the largest technology IPO in American history at that time. Critics questioned whether any company could justify such valuations.

Outcome

Short Term

Stock dropped 50% within months of IPO as mobile advertising revenue lagged expectations.

Long Term

Facebook (now Meta) reached $1 trillion market capitalization by 2021 as mobile advertising and acquisitions of Instagram and WhatsApp vindicated early investors.

Why It's Relevant Today

Anthropic's $380 billion private valuation exceeds Facebook's IPO by 3.6 times. Unlike Facebook's consumer advertising model, Anthropic generates 80% of revenue from enterprise clients—a potentially more predictable revenue base but one dependent on continued corporate AI adoption.

Japanese Asset Bubble (1986-1991)

1986 - December 1991

What Happened

Japanese equities and real estate reached price-to-earnings ratios of 80 times. The Imperial Palace grounds were famously valued higher than all California real estate combined. Banks extended credit against inflated asset values.

Outcome

Short Term

Nikkei 225 fell 80% from peak. Real estate values collapsed. Banking system required government intervention.

Long Term

Japan experienced three decades of stagnant growth. The Nikkei did not recover its 1989 peak until 2024—35 years later.

Why It's Relevant Today

The current Nasdaq trades at 23 times forward earnings, compared to Japan's 80 times—suggesting less extreme overvaluation. However, private AI valuations may reflect expectations of continued exponential growth that historical parallels suggest rarely materialize.

12 Sources: