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The Ceasefire That Never Was

The Ceasefire That Never Was

Israel's 14-Month Campaign Against Hezbollah Under the Cover of a Truce

Today: IDF Strikes Radwan Force Sites Across Lebanon

Overview

Israel and Hezbollah signed a ceasefire on November 27, 2024, ending a year of cross-border war that killed nearly 4,000 Lebanese and displaced 1.4 million people. Fourteen months later, Israel has conducted over 10,000 documented violations—669 airstrikes, 1,200 ground raids, and more than 390 Hezbollah operatives killed—while the Lebanese army claims it has disarmed the group south of the Litani River.

The January 15, 2026 strikes on Radwan Force training sites and weapons depots in the Bekaa Valley and southern Lebanon mark one of the most significant escalations since the ceasefire began. Both sides accuse the other of systematic violations: Israel says Hezbollah is rearming faster than it's being disarmed; Lebanon and the UN say Israel never stopped attacking. The ceasefire exists on paper while a shadow war continues on the ground.

Key Indicators

10,000+
Israeli violations documented
UNIFIL has recorded over 7,500 airspace and 2,500 ground violations since November 2024
390+
Hezbollah operatives killed
IDF claims to have killed over 390 fighters since the ceasefire, calling each a violation response
330+
Total deaths since ceasefire
Including at least 127 civilians according to Lebanese health ministry and UN reports
5
Israeli positions remaining
Israel withdrew from most of south Lebanon but maintains five strategic posts along the border

People Involved

Benjamin Netanyahu
Benjamin Netanyahu
Prime Minister of Israel (Leading Israeli policy on Lebanon enforcement)
Naim Qassem
Naim Qassem
Secretary-General of Hezbollah (Leading Hezbollah since Hassan Nasrallah's assassination)
Joseph Aoun
Joseph Aoun
President of Lebanon (Overseeing disarmament effort)

Organizations Involved

Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
Military
Status: Conducting ongoing operations in Lebanon under ceasefire

Israel's military has conducted over 1,200 raids and 669 airstrikes in Lebanon since the ceasefire began, claiming each responds to Hezbollah violations.

HE
Hezbollah
Political Party / Armed Group
Status: Partially disarmed south of Litani, resisting further disarmament

The Iran-backed group has allowed disarmament south of the Litani River but refuses to relinquish weapons elsewhere, citing ongoing Israeli occupation.

UN
United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL)
UN Peacekeeping Mission
Status: Mandate ends December 2026

The peacekeeping force has documented over 10,000 Israeli ceasefire violations and will cease operations at the end of 2026.

Lebanese Armed Forces
Lebanese Armed Forces
Military
Status: Implementing phased disarmament plan

The LAF announced operational control of territory south of the Litani in January 2026, though Israel disputes the completeness of disarmament.

Timeline

  1. IDF Strikes Radwan Force Sites Across Lebanon

    Military

    Israeli jets hit Hezbollah training sites and weapons depots in Bekaa Valley and southern villages, one of the largest escalations since the ceasefire began.

  2. Lebanon Announces Phase 1 Complete

    Policy

    Lebanese army declares operational control south of Litani. Netanyahu says progress is "far from sufficient."

  3. One Year Since Ceasefire: 669 Strikes

    Assessment

    By the first anniversary, IDF has conducted 669 strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon and killed 218 operatives.

  4. Lebanon Adopts Homeland Shield Plan

    Policy

    Cabinet adopts five-phase disarmament roadmap. Phase 1 covers area south of Litani; Phase 5 covers northern Lebanon.

  5. UNIFIL Mandate Renewed for Final Time

    Diplomatic

    UN Security Council votes unanimously to extend UNIFIL through December 2026. U.S. states this will be the final extension.

  6. Hezbollah Ministers Walk Out Over Disarmament

    Political

    Hezbollah ministers leave cabinet meeting as Beirut approves U.S.-backed disarmament plan.

  7. Ceasefire Extended, Withdrawal Delayed

    Diplomatic

    U.S. extends truce deadline to February 18. Israel announces it will delay withdrawal due to gaps in Lebanese enforcement.

  8. Joseph Aoun Elected President

    Political

    Former army commander Joseph Aoun elected president of Lebanon, ending a two-year vacancy. Makes disarmament a central policy goal.

  9. First and Only Hezbollah Attack Since Truce

    Military

    Hezbollah fires two mortar shells—its only claimed attack since the ceasefire. France reports 52 Israeli violations by this date.

  10. Ceasefire Takes Effect

    Diplomatic

    U.S.-brokered ceasefire begins at 4:00 AM. Agreement calls for 60-day Israeli withdrawal and Lebanese army deployment south of Litani.

  11. Israel Invades Southern Lebanon

    Military

    IDF begins "limited, localised and targeted" ground operations in southern Lebanon, Israel's sixth invasion since 1978.

  12. Hassan Nasrallah Killed

    Assassination

    Israeli airstrike on residential buildings in Beirut's Dahieh suburb kills Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah and multiple senior commanders.

  13. Pager Explosions Kill Dozens

    Attack

    Thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah members explode in coordinated attacks, killing 27 and injuring over 4,450.

  14. Hezbollah Opens Second Front

    Military

    Hezbollah launches rockets and artillery at Israeli positions in solidarity with Hamas, one day after the October 7 attacks. Cross-border exchanges begin.

Scenarios

1

Ceasefire Collapses, Full Conflict Resumes

Discussed by: Stimson Center, Soufan Center, International Crisis Group analysts

If Israel's strikes continue escalating or Hezbollah concludes the truce offers no protection, fighting could resume at scale. Analysts identify Lebanon as "potentially the most dangerous flashpoint" in the region. A triggering event—such as mass casualties from an Israeli strike or a Hezbollah attack on Israeli civilians—could end the pretense of ceasefire entirely. Iran's current domestic crisis and depleted proxy networks make this less likely in early 2026.

2

Frozen Conflict Continues Indefinitely

Discussed by: Foundation for Defense of Democracies, ACLED, Atlantic Council

The current pattern persists: Israel conducts daily "enforcement" strikes, Hezbollah absorbs casualties while rearming, Lebanon claims progress on disarmament while unable to enforce it north of Litani. UNIFIL departs in December 2026 with no replacement mechanism. Both sides maintain the ceasefire is holding by their own definitions while hundreds die annually.

3

Disarmament Succeeds, Hezbollah Becomes Political Party

Discussed by: Lebanese government officials, U.S. State Department

The Homeland Shield Plan proceeds through all five phases. Hezbollah, weakened by the 2024 war and facing Iranian pressure from domestic unrest, negotiates its transition to a purely political role. Israel withdraws from remaining positions. This scenario requires sustained U.S. pressure on both sides and Hezbollah's acceptance of defeat—conditions most analysts consider unlikely given the group's ideology and Iranian backing.

4

U.S.-Backed Escalation Destroys Hezbollah's Arsenal

Discussed by: Israeli media, Washington Institute for Near East Policy

Reports of Trump-Netanyahu discussions at Mar-a-Lago suggest the U.S. may greenlight a major Israeli offensive if Lebanon fails to complete disarmament. Israel could attempt to destroy Hezbollah's remaining precision missiles in the Bekaa Valley and Dahieh before UNIFIL withdraws. Success would require accepting significant civilian casualties and potential regional war with Iran.

Historical Context

UN Resolution 1701 and the 2006 Ceasefire

August 2006

What Happened

After a 34-day war triggered by Hezbollah's cross-border kidnapping of Israeli soldiers, the UN Security Council unanimously passed Resolution 1701. The resolution called for Hezbollah's disarmament, Israeli withdrawal, and Lebanese army deployment to the south—the same terms as the 2024 agreement.

Outcome

Short Term

Fighting stopped. Israel withdrew. UNIFIL expanded to 15,000 troops.

Long Term

Hezbollah never disarmed. By 2024, it had accumulated 120,000-200,000 munitions and built the Radwan Force for offensive operations. Resolution 1701 was never enforced.

Why It's Relevant Today

The 2024 ceasefire is explicitly based on implementing 1701's unfulfilled terms. Critics argue Israel learned that ceasefires without enforcement allow enemies to rearm; Hezbollah learned that agreeing to disarm carries no actual obligation to do so.

The 2000 Israeli Withdrawal from Lebanon

May 2000

What Happened

Israel unilaterally withdrew from southern Lebanon after an 18-year occupation that began with the 1982 invasion. Hezbollah claimed victory, having led the resistance that made occupation untenable. The withdrawal boosted Hezbollah's prestige across the Arab world.

Outcome

Short Term

South Lebanon Army, Israel's proxy force, collapsed within hours. Its members fled to Israel.

Long Term

Hezbollah's success model—armed resistance forcing Israeli withdrawal—became its core narrative and justification for maintaining weapons.

Why It's Relevant Today

Hezbollah refuses to disarm partly because its weapons enabled the 2000 "victory." Israel's current insistence on destroying Hezbollah's arsenal reflects lessons from allowing the group to rebuild after that withdrawal.

The 1996 'Grapes of Wrath' Operation

April 1996

What Happened

Israel launched a 16-day air and artillery campaign against Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon. On April 18, Israeli shelling hit a UN compound in Qana, killing 106 Lebanese civilians who had taken shelter there. International outrage forced Israel to accept a ceasefire.

Outcome

Short Term

A monitoring committee was established to prevent civilian targeting. Cross-border attacks continued.

Long Term

The Qana massacre became a symbol of Israeli disregard for Lebanese civilian lives and bolstered Hezbollah recruitment.

Why It's Relevant Today

Israel's current civilian evacuation warnings before strikes aim to avoid another Qana-scale incident. Whether these warnings sufficiently protect civilians remains disputed, with over 127 civilian deaths since the 2024 ceasefire.

15 Sources:
+9
The Times of Israel Al Jazeera Haaretz CNN Foundation for Defense of Democracies Wikipedia UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights The Soufan Center International Crisis Group Stimson Center Al Jazeera Al Jazeera The Times of Israel Wikipedia Wikipedia