Israel and Hezbollah signed a ceasefire on November 27, 2024, ending a year of cross-border war that killed nearly 4,000 Lebanese and displaced 1.4 million people. Fifteen months later, Israel has conducted over 10,500 documented violations—including 7,500 airspace violations and more than 3,000 ground and air strikes—with over 450 people killed since the truce began, including major strikes on February 21, 2026 in the Bekaa Valley near Baalbek killing at least 10 including eight Hezbollah operatives and three children, and a separate strike on Ain al-Hilweh refugee camp killing two Hamas operatives.
Israel and Hezbollah signed a ceasefire on November 27, 2024, ending a year of cross-border war that killed nearly 4,000 Lebanese and displaced 1.4 million people. Fifteen months later, Israel has conducted over 10,500 documented violations—including 7,500 airspace violations and more than 3,000 ground and air strikes—with over 450 people killed since the truce began, including major strikes on February 21, 2026 in the Bekaa Valley near Baalbek killing at least 10 including eight Hezbollah operatives and three children, and a separate strike on Ain al-Hilweh refugee camp killing two Hamas operatives.
The Lebanese army announced on January 8, 2026, that it had completed Phase 1 disarmament south of the Litani River, but Hezbollah refuses further disarmament while Israeli strikes continue almost daily. On January 26, Lebanon filed a formal UN complaint documenting 2,036 Israeli sovereignty violations in the final three months of 2025 alone. UNIFIL reported new incidents in early February, while Lebanese Army Commander Rodolphe Haykal requested 4-8 months for Phase 2 disarmament north of the Litani in mid-February 2026. Both sides accuse the other of systematic violations amid escalating strikes into late February.
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People Involved
Benjamin Netanyahu
Prime Minister of Israel (Leading Israeli policy on Lebanon enforcement)
Naim Qassem
Secretary-General of Hezbollah (Leading Hezbollah since Hassan Nasrallah's assassination)
Joseph Aoun
President of Lebanon (Overseeing disarmament effort)
Organizations Involved
IS
Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
Military
Status: Conducting ongoing operations in Lebanon under ceasefire
Israel's military has conducted over 1,200 raids and 669 airstrikes in Lebanon since the ceasefire began, claiming each responds to Hezbollah violations.
HE
Hezbollah
Lebanese Political Party and Armed Group
Status: Partially disarmed south of Litani, resisting further disarmament
The Iran-backed group has allowed disarmament south of the Litani River but refuses to relinquish weapons elsewhere, citing ongoing Israeli occupation.
UN
United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL)
United Nations Peacekeeping Mission
Status: Mandate ends December 2026
The peacekeeping force has documented over 10,000 Israeli ceasefire violations and will cease operations at the end of 2026.
LE
Lebanese Armed Forces
Military
Status: Implementing phased disarmament plan
The LAF announced operational control of territory south of the Litani in January 2026, though Israel disputes the completeness of disarmament.
Timeline
Israeli Strikes Kill One in Talousa and Hanine
Military
IDF drone strike in Talousa (Marjayoun) kills one Lebanese citizen; separate strike near Hanine targets Hezbollah operative and injures one in vehicle attack. LAF Commander Haykal requests 4-8 months for Phase 2 disarmament from cabinet.
Israel Strikes Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Bekaa Valley
Military
Israeli airstrike on vehicle in Majdal Anjar kills four, including Syrian national; IDF confirms targeting PIJ operatives.
IDF Operations Kill One Hezbollah Operative
Military
Israeli operations Feb 2-8 kill one Hezbollah operative and wound eight; includes drone strike in Ansariyeh killing Abbas Ahmad Ghadboun.
LAF Prepares Phase 2 Disarmament Presentation
Policy
Army Commander Haykal to present Phase 2 plan for north of Litani to cabinet; US aid tied to progress.
UNIFIL Drones Drop Stun Grenade Near Patrol
Military
Peacekeepers near Kafer Kela fire defensively at aggressive Israeli drones; one drops stun grenade 50m away. No injuries.
IDF Drops Chemical Substance Near Blue Line
Military
Israeli aircraft drop non-toxic chemical near Blue Line, suspending UNIFIL patrols for 9+ hours; LAF tests samples for toxicity. UNIFIL condemns as 1701 violation.
Israeli Strike Kills Al-Manar TV Presenter
Military
Israeli airstrike on southern Lebanese city of Tyre kills television presenter working for Hezbollah-affiliated Al-Manar TV station, raising concerns about targeting of media workers.
Lebanon Files UN Complaint Over Ceasefire Violations
Diplomatic
Lebanon formally files complaint with United Nations documenting 2,036 Israeli breaches of sovereignty in final three months of 2025, protesting repeated ceasefire violations and daily attacks.
Wave of Israeli Attacks Kills Two
Military
Series of Israeli strikes across Lebanon kills two people in latest ceasefire violations, part of near-daily attack pattern continuing since November 2024 truce.
Israeli Forces Fire on Lebanese Army with UNIFIL
Military
Israeli forces open fire on Lebanese army unit operating alongside UN peacekeepers in southern Lebanon, marking escalation in attacks on Lebanese state forces implementing ceasefire.
Israeli Strike Kills One in South Lebanon
Military
Israeli strike on vehicle in Mansuri kills one person. Previous day's strike in Zawtar al-Sharqiyah killed Hezbollah operative allegedly involved in rebuilding terror infrastructure.
Drone Grenade Dropped Near UNIFIL Peacekeepers
Military
Israeli drone drops grenade 30 meters from UNIFIL peacekeepers during patrol near Adeisse. Two illuminating flare mortar rounds hit UN position southwest of Yaroun. UNIFIL observes Israeli Merkava tanks moving deeper into Lebanese territory near Sarda.
IDF Strikes Radwan Force Sites Across Lebanon
Military
Israeli jets hit Hezbollah training sites and weapons depots in Bekaa Valley and southern villages, one of the largest escalations since the ceasefire began.
Israeli Mortar Rounds Hit UNIFIL Position
Military
Two illuminating flare mortar rounds hit helipad and main gate of UN position southwest of Yaroun. UNIFIL states such IDF activities put civilians at risk and violate UNSCR 1701.
Israeli Tank Fires Near UNIFIL, Tracks Peacekeepers
Military
Israeli tank fires three shells landing 150 meters from UNIFIL peacekeepers, then continuously tracks retreating peacekeepers with laser targeting. UNIFIL warns attacks on identifiable peacekeepers are becoming disturbingly common.
Lebanon Announces Phase 1 Complete
Policy
Lebanese army declares operational control south of Litani. Netanyahu says progress is "far from sufficient."
Israel Strikes Bekaa Valley Targeting Hezbollah and Hamas
Military
Israeli airstrikes hit targets in Bekaa Valley near Hermel, 87 miles from Israeli border, targeting alleged Hezbollah and Hamas infrastructure in escalation of strikes beyond border zone.
One Year Since Ceasefire: 669 Strikes
Assessment
By the first anniversary, IDF has conducted 669 strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon and killed 218 operatives.
Lebanon Adopts Homeland Shield Plan
Policy
Cabinet adopts five-phase disarmament roadmap. Phase 1 covers area south of Litani; Phase 5 covers northern Lebanon.
UNIFIL Mandate Renewed for Final Time
Diplomatic
UN Security Council votes unanimously to extend UNIFIL through December 2026. U.S. states this will be the final extension.
U.S. extends truce deadline to February 18. Israel announces it will delay withdrawal due to gaps in Lebanese enforcement.
Joseph Aoun Elected President
Political
Former army commander Joseph Aoun elected president of Lebanon, ending a two-year vacancy. Makes disarmament a central policy goal.
First and Only Hezbollah Attack Since Truce
Military
Hezbollah fires two mortar shells—its only claimed attack since the ceasefire. France reports 52 Israeli violations by this date.
Ceasefire Takes Effect
Diplomatic
U.S.-brokered ceasefire begins at 4:00 AM. Agreement calls for 60-day Israeli withdrawal and Lebanese army deployment south of Litani.
Israel Invades Southern Lebanon
Military
IDF begins "limited, localised and targeted" ground operations in southern Lebanon, Israel's sixth invasion since 1978.
Hassan Nasrallah Killed
Assassination
Israeli airstrike on residential buildings in Beirut's Dahieh suburb kills Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah and multiple senior commanders.
Pager Explosions Kill Dozens
Attack
Thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah members explode in coordinated attacks, killing 27 and injuring over 4,450.
Hezbollah Opens Second Front
Military
Hezbollah launches rockets and artillery at Israeli positions in solidarity with Hamas, one day after the October 7 attacks. Cross-border exchanges begin.
Scenarios
1
Ceasefire Collapses, Full Conflict Resumes
Discussed by: Stimson Center, Soufan Center, International Crisis Group analysts
If Israel's strikes continue escalating or Hezbollah concludes the truce offers no protection, fighting could resume at scale. Analysts identify Lebanon as "potentially the most dangerous flashpoint" in the region. A triggering event—such as mass casualties from an Israeli strike or a Hezbollah attack on Israeli civilians—could end the pretense of ceasefire entirely. Iran's current domestic crisis and depleted proxy networks make this less likely in early 2026.
2
Frozen Conflict Continues Indefinitely
Discussed by: Foundation for Defense of Democracies, ACLED, Atlantic Council
The current pattern persists: Israel conducts daily "enforcement" strikes, Hezbollah absorbs casualties while rearming, Lebanon claims progress on disarmament while unable to enforce it north of Litani. UNIFIL departs in December 2026 with no replacement mechanism. Both sides maintain the ceasefire is holding by their own definitions while hundreds die annually.
3
Disarmament Succeeds, Hezbollah Becomes Political Party
Discussed by: Lebanese government officials, U.S. State Department
The Homeland Shield Plan proceeds through all five phases. Hezbollah, weakened by the 2024 war and facing Iranian pressure from domestic unrest, negotiates its transition to a purely political role. Israel withdraws from remaining positions. This scenario requires sustained U.S. pressure on both sides and Hezbollah's acceptance of defeat—conditions most analysts consider unlikely given the group's ideology and Iranian backing.
4
U.S.-Backed Escalation Destroys Hezbollah's Arsenal
Discussed by: Israeli media, Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Reports of Trump-Netanyahu discussions at Mar-a-Lago suggest the U.S. may greenlight a major Israeli offensive if Lebanon fails to complete disarmament. Israel could attempt to destroy Hezbollah's remaining precision missiles in the Bekaa Valley and Dahieh before UNIFIL withdraws. Success would require accepting significant civilian casualties and potential regional war with Iran.
Historical Context
UN Resolution 1701 and the 2006 Ceasefire
August 2006
What Happened
After a 34-day war triggered by Hezbollah's cross-border kidnapping of Israeli soldiers, the UN Security Council unanimously passed Resolution 1701. The resolution called for Hezbollah's disarmament, Israeli withdrawal, and Lebanese army deployment to the south—the same terms as the 2024 agreement.
Outcome
Short Term
Fighting stopped. Israel withdrew. UNIFIL expanded to 15,000 troops.
Long Term
Hezbollah never disarmed. By 2024, it had accumulated 120,000-200,000 munitions and built the Radwan Force for offensive operations. Resolution 1701 was never enforced.
Why It's Relevant Today
The 2024 ceasefire is explicitly based on implementing 1701's unfulfilled terms. Critics argue Israel learned that ceasefires without enforcement allow enemies to rearm; Hezbollah learned that agreeing to disarm carries no actual obligation to do so.
The 2000 Israeli Withdrawal from Lebanon
May 2000
What Happened
Israel unilaterally withdrew from southern Lebanon after an 18-year occupation that began with the 1982 invasion. Hezbollah claimed victory, having led the resistance that made occupation untenable. The withdrawal boosted Hezbollah's prestige across the Arab world.
Outcome
Short Term
South Lebanon Army, Israel's proxy force, collapsed within hours. Its members fled to Israel.
Long Term
Hezbollah's success model—armed resistance forcing Israeli withdrawal—became its core narrative and justification for maintaining weapons.
Why It's Relevant Today
Hezbollah refuses to disarm partly because its weapons enabled the 2000 "victory." Israel's current insistence on destroying Hezbollah's arsenal reflects lessons from allowing the group to rebuild after that withdrawal.
The 1996 'Grapes of Wrath' Operation
April 1996
What Happened
Israel launched a 16-day air and artillery campaign against Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon. On April 18, Israeli shelling hit a UN compound in Qana, killing 106 Lebanese civilians who had taken shelter there. International outrage forced Israel to accept a ceasefire.
Outcome
Short Term
A monitoring committee was established to prevent civilian targeting. Cross-border attacks continued.
Long Term
The Qana massacre became a symbol of Israeli disregard for Lebanese civilian lives and bolstered Hezbollah recruitment.
Why It's Relevant Today
Israel's current civilian evacuation warnings before strikes aim to avoid another Qana-scale incident. Whether these warnings sufficiently protect civilians remains disputed, with over 127 civilian deaths since the 2024 ceasefire.
