From October 7 Abductions to Final Recovery, Rafah Reopening Strains, and Phase Two Stumbles
February 4th, 2026: NCAG Slated to Enter Gaza via Rafah This WeekNew here? Follow stories to track developments over time. Create a free account to get updates when stories you care about change.
Israel recovered the remains of Ran Gvili on January 26, 2026, ending the 843-day hostage crisis that began with Hamas's October 7, 2023 attack. Prime Minister Netanyahu declared in the Knesset on January 27 that 'There are no more hostages in Gaza.' The Hostages and Missing Families Forum halted activities after this closure.
The Rafah crossing reopened February 2-3, 2026 for limited pedestrian passage, but only small numbers have crossed amid strict Israeli restrictions, physical abuse reports, and coordination halts—far below the promised 50 daily medical evacuations despite 22,000 in need. Ceasefire violations escalated with Israeli strikes killing at least 520+ Palestinians since October 2025, including 19-24 more around February 4 in response to militant activity; four IDF soldiers also died since ceasefire start. Phase Two stalls: NCAG plans entry via Rafah this week but faces delays, ISF deployment lags without firm troop commitments, and Netanyahu insists on Hamas disarmament before reconstruction amid mutual accusations.
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Palestinian Islamist organization that governed Gaza from 2007 until the 2025 ceasefire agreement required it to hand administration to technocrats.
Israel's military forces, which have conducted ground operations in Gaza since October 2023 and rescued eight hostages through direct operations.
A 15-member committee of Palestinian technocrats appointed to manage Gaza's civilian affairs under the Board of Peace's supervision.
A multilateral body overseeing Gaza's transitional governance, with 25 member nations including Israel, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar.
US official and Arab diplomat report the 12-member National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG) plans to re-enter the Strip through newly reopened Rafah crossing later this week to assume civilian governance role.
Returnees to Gaza report hours of Israeli interrogation, physical abuse, and confiscation of medications/toys/cellphones at Rafah; operations remain pedestrian-only with no goods permitted.
Strikes across Gaza kill at least 24 including medic Hussein al-Semiry responding to prior attack; Israel reports responding to militant activity injuring officer, notes four soldiers killed since ceasefire began.
Despite promises of 50 daily evacuations, only 5 Palestinian patients (with 10 relatives) exit Gaza on first day. About 22,000 people need medical evacuation. 150 Egyptian hospitals ready to receive patients. NCAG members remain unable to enter despite Israeli approval.
Foreign ministers of UAE, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, Indonesia, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar issue joint statement strongly condemning Israel's repeated violations, warning actions 'risk escalating tensions and undermining efforts aimed at consolidating calm.'
Ali Shaath issues statement: 'The loss of life in Gaza over the past few days is excruciating.' Board of Peace Gaza envoy Nickolay Mladenov expresses deep concern over both Hamas tunnel emergence and Israeli strikes killing civilians.
COGAT confirms Rafah will reopen Sunday for limited pedestrian passage: 50 medical evacuees permitted to exit, 50 returnees to enter. All movements require prior Israeli security clearance and EU mission supervision. Opening follows Netanyahu's pledge after Gvili recovery.
Prime Minister delivers historic speech declaring hostage crisis over, recites Shehecheyanu prayer of thanksgiving, and emphasizes Phase 2 priority is Hamas disarmament, not reconstruction.
Netanyahu's office announces Rafah crossing will reopen for pedestrian passage only, with full Israeli inspection. Humanitarian groups note this will not enable movement of aid supplies.
IDF deploys Alexandroni Brigade, rabbis, and dental experts to search cemetery in northern Gaza. Netanyahu pledges to open Rafah crossing upon completion.
After searching 250 bodies, IDF and 20 dentists identify Gvili's remains in northern Gaza cemetery. Intelligence breakthrough came from captured Islamic Jihad terrorist interrogated by Shin Bet one month earlier.
Despite NCAG formation and international support, Israel prevents committee members from entering Gaza for unclear reasons, complicating Phase 2 implementation.
Trump administration formally announces Board of Peace with Trump as chair, Marco Rubio, Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, and Tony Blair on executive board. Major General Jasper Jeffers named ISF commander.
Hamas senior leader Bassem Naim calls NCAG 'a step in the right direction.' Palestinian Authority, Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey also welcome the committee. Ali Shaath states NCAG will integrate with PA under 'one homeland, one system' framework.
Witkoff announces Phase 2 launch. Ali Shaath named chair of 15-member National Committee for the Administration of Gaza.
Remains recovered in early December leave Ran Gvili as the only hostage still held in Gaza.
Security Council Resolution 2803 passes 13-0-2, authorizing a 20,000-troop force and Board of Peace to oversee Gaza reconstruction.
Hamas releases the final 20 living hostages. Israel releases 2,000 Palestinian prisoners including 250 serving life sentences.
Phase 1 of Trump's peace plan begins. IDF withdraws most forces from Gaza. Hamas has 72 hours to release living hostages.
Hamas agrees to release remaining hostages and hand Gaza administration to independent technocrats, though it does not agree to disarm.
President Trump unveils comprehensive plan at White House, giving Hamas until October 5 to accept. Plan includes full hostage release and transitional governance.
IDF recovers the body of Oron Shaul, a soldier held by Hamas since 2014, in a joint operation with Shin Bet.
IDF special forces rescue four hostages from Nuseirat refugee camp. Gaza Health Ministry reports over 200 Palestinians killed in the operation.
IDF takes control of Gaza's only border crossing with Egypt, effectively severing the territory's main humanitarian supply route.
Israel Defense Forces announce that Ran Gvili was killed on October 7 and his body taken to Gaza. Family refuses to accept closure without his remains.
A week-long ceasefire ends with 105 civilian hostages released in exchange for 150 Palestinian prisoners.
IDF launches ground operations in Gaza, beginning 27-month military campaign that will displace nearly all 2.2 million residents.
Hamas-led attack kills 1,195 Israelis; 251 people are abducted to Gaza. Ran Gvili, despite a broken shoulder, fights at Kibbutz Alumim, rescues 100 people, and is killed.
Discussed by: NPR, Times of Israel, Trump administration officials
Israeli forces locate Gvili's remains within days. Netanyahu follows through on pledge to open Rafah crossing. Humanitarian aid flow increases substantially. The International Stabilization Force deploys initial contingents, and the NCAG begins visible governance activities. This scenario represents the intended path of Trump's peace plan and would mark the first time since October 2023 that no Israeli hostages or remains are held in Gaza.
Discussed by: Al Jazeera, Haaretz, Israeli opposition analysts
Recovery operation extends beyond days into weeks without success. Netanyahu cites incomplete mission to keep Rafah crossing closed. Hamas and Israel continue mutual accusations of obstruction. Humanitarian conditions deteriorate further. Far-right coalition partners like Itamar Ben Gvir use delay to argue against Phase 2 implementation. Trump administration faces choice between pressuring Israel or accepting indefinite stall.
Discussed by: Chatham House, Times of Israel political analysts
Even with Gvili recovered, far-right ministers Smotrich and Ben Gvir follow through on threats to quit over Phase 2 implementation, particularly the return of Palestinian Authority-linked administrators and international force deployment. With elections likely in October 2026, Netanyahu faces choice between maintaining coalition and honoring Trump commitments. Government could fall, triggering early elections and uncertain future for peace plan.
Discussed by: Israeli hostage family advocates, Tami Arad (widow of Ron Arad)
Despite intensive searches, Gvili's remains are never definitively located or identified. Years pass without closure, echoing the case of Ron Arad, the Israeli pilot captured in Lebanon in 1986 whose fate was never confirmed and body never recovered. The Gvili family continues advocacy while the broader conflict moves on. This outcome would represent a failure of the hostage recovery that defined Israel's stated war objectives.
Discussed by: Times of Israel, INSS analysts
Despite authorization for a 20,000-troop force, countries that expressed interest—including Azerbaijan, Indonesia, Egypt, Qatar, and UAE—have failed to formalize commitments. Without sufficient forces, the ISF cannot deploy to secure Gaza or train Palestinian police. This leaves a security vacuum that could enable Hamas to retain de facto control despite agreeing to cede governance. The Board of Peace may need to significantly reduce force size or delay deployment indefinitely.
Discussed by: Al Jazeera, humanitarian organizations, UN officials
Netanyahu's pedestrian-only reopening of Rafah fails to address Gaza's dire humanitarian needs. Tonnes of desperately-needed supplies remain stranded in Egyptian warehouses with no mechanism to transport them. Malnutrition and disease rates continue climbing among Gaza's 2.2 million displaced residents. International pressure mounts on Israel to fully reopen the crossing for commercial and aid vehicles, potentially creating another flashpoint in ceasefire implementation.
Discussed by: UN Deputy Special Coordinator, Chatham House analysts
Mounting ceasefire violations by both sides—Hamas tunnel operations and Israeli retaliatory strikes killing civilians—spiral into renewed full-scale conflict. With 520+ Palestinians already killed since October ceasefire and no progress on Hamas disarmament, either side could abandon the agreement. Israel has drawn up plans for another ground operation if Hamas does not disarm by March. This would nullify Phase 2, collapse the Board of Peace framework, and resume the devastating war.
Discussed by: Gaza Government Media Office, humanitarian organizations
Rafah's pedestrian-only reopening proves insufficient even for its limited mandate. The gap between promised 50 daily evacuations and actual performance (5 on first day) exemplifies broader Phase 2 dysfunction. With 22,000 needing medical care and aid still blocked, the crossing becomes symbol of failed implementation. International pressure mounts, but Netanyahu resists full reopening citing security concerns.
Hamas captured IDF soldier Gilad Shalit in a cross-border raid and held him for five years. Israel ultimately exchanged 1,027 Palestinian prisoners—including 280 serving life sentences for attacks on Israeli civilians—for his release. Among those freed was Yahya Sinwar, who later led Hamas.
Shalit returned alive, the first captured Israeli soldier released in 26 years. The exchange established an unprecedented price for a single captive.
Dozens of released prisoners resumed militant activity. Sinwar rose to lead Hamas and reportedly saw hostage-taking's success as motivation for the October 7, 2023 attack.
The Shalit deal set the framework for Israeli hostage negotiations with Hamas. The October 2025 exchange—2,000 prisoners for 20 living hostages—followed the same asymmetric pattern. The Gvili case tests whether Israel will accept incomplete recovery or continue operations indefinitely.
Israeli Air Force navigator Ron Arad ejected over Lebanon and was captured by Amal militia, then transferred to Hezbollah. Despite proof-of-life photos in 1987, secret negotiations, and Israeli commando operations to kidnap Hezbollah operatives for leverage, Arad's fate was never confirmed. A 2016 investigation concluded he died in 1988.
Years of negotiations produced no results. Israel conducted multiple intelligence operations to gain information.
Arad became a symbol of unresolved loss. His case informed Israeli policy on never leaving soldiers behind—and the trauma of failing to recover them.
Arad's widow has warned current hostage families that cases can fade from public attention while remaining unresolved for decades. The Gvili recovery operation represents Israel's effort to avoid repeating this outcome with the final October 7 hostage.
The first pause in fighting after October 7 lasted seven days. Hamas released 105 civilian hostages—including 81 Israelis, 23 Thai nationals, and one Filipino—in exchange for 150 Palestinian prisoners. The ceasefire collapsed after disputes over extending the exchange.
Freed hostages provided intelligence on captivity conditions. Fighting resumed more intensely afterward.
Established that large-scale hostage exchanges were possible but fragile. Set precedent for October 2025 deal.
The 2023 ceasefire showed Hamas would release civilian hostages but negotiations remained difficult. The October 2025 deal built on this foundation, ultimately releasing all living hostages. The Gvili case represents the final piece—recovery of remains rather than living captives.