Overview
Myanmar's military junta completed the first phase of elections on December 28, 2025, with notably low voter turnout—far below the 70% seen in 2015 and 2020—exposing the regime's legitimacy crisis. The regime's most popular opponent, Aung San Suu Kyi, sits in prison where her son fears she may have died in isolation, her party has been dissolved, and armed resistance controls vast territories the military can't access to hold polls.
The election isn't democracy returning—it's theater that's fooling no one. Western governments and the UN condemned it as a farce while China and Russia provided tacit endorsement. Meanwhile, the shadow National Unity Government faces mounting internal criticism over corruption and slow decision-making, and resistance forces suffer ammunition shortages as China pressures ethnic armies into ceasefires. The question isn't whether the military-backed party wins, but whether anyone still believes the junta controls enough of Myanmar to govern it.
Key Indicators
People Involved
Organizations Involved
Myanmar's most successful democratic party, dissolved by the regime that couldn't beat it at the ballot box.
Shadow government formed by ousted lawmakers now waging war against the regime.
Ethnic armed groups that launched Operation 1027, the junta's worst battlefield defeat in decades.
The military's political vehicle, staffed by retired generals and guaranteed to win.
Timeline
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Kim Aris Denounces Election as 'Scam'
StatementAung San Suu Kyi's son releases video calling the junta election 'backed by other dictators, nothing more than a scam.'
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Low Voter Turnout Marks First Election Phase
ElectionVoting concludes with turnout far below the 70% seen in 2015 and 2020 elections. Few young voters participated, with mostly middle-aged citizens casting ballots.
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Kim Aris Raises Alarm Over Mother's Health
PersonalAung San Suu Kyi's son reveals he hasn't heard from his mother since 2023 and fears she could be dead. Junta claims she is 'in good health' without providing evidence.
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Junta Holds Phased Election Amid Civil War
ElectionMilitary stages vote in 102 townships, canceling elections in 65 others due to fighting. UN and Western governments condemn as illegitimate.
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Rebels Capture Western Military Command
MilitaryArakan Army seizes Western Command headquarters in Ann, second regional command to fall to ethnic forces.
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ICC Requests Min Aung Hlaing Arrest Warrant
LegalInternational Criminal Court prosecutor seeks warrant for crimes against humanity over Rohingya genocide.
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Operation 1027 Offensive Begins
MilitaryThree Brotherhood Alliance launches coordinated assault, capturing over 220 junta positions in weeks—worst military defeat in decades.
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Junta Officially Dissolves NLD
LegalMilitary regime bans Myanmar's most popular party, ensuring it cannot contest future elections.
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NUG Declares 'Defensive War' Against Junta
DeclarationShadow government launches nationwide revolution, calling for armed uprising against military.
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NUG Announces People's Defense Force
MilitaryShadow government forms armed wing, beginning organized military resistance to junta.
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Ousted Lawmakers Form Shadow Government
ResistanceNational Unity Government established by escaped parliamentarians, claims to be Myanmar's legitimate government.
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Mass Protests Erupt Nationwide
ProtestHundreds of thousands join civil disobedience movement. Doctors, teachers, bankers refuse to work under military rule.
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Military Stages Coup, Arrests Suu Kyi
CoupMin Aung Hlaing seizes power hours before parliament to convene, detaining Suu Kyi and elected leaders, declaring one-year emergency.
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NLD Wins Landslide Re-election
ElectionNLD wins 396 of 476 seats, even larger victory than 2015. Military-backed USDP wins just 33 seats.
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Military Launches Rohingya Genocide
AtrocityMin Aung Hlaing oversees crackdown driving 750,000 Rohingya into Bangladesh. International community condemns as ethnic cleansing.
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NLD Wins First Fair Election in Decades
ElectionAung San Suu Kyi leads NLD to overwhelming victory, forming first civilian-led government since 1962.
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Military's Constitution Approved in Sham Referendum
ConstitutionalJunta claims 93% approval for constitution guaranteeing military 25% of parliament and control over key ministries, just after Cyclone Nargis.
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NLD Wins Landslide; Military Ignores Results
ElectionAung San Suu Kyi's NLD wins 81% of parliamentary seats. The junta refuses to hand over power, keeping Suu Kyi under house arrest.
Scenarios
Military Consolidates Authoritarian Rule Through Sham Democracy
Discussed by: UN officials, International Crisis Group analysts, Foreign Policy
The junta successfully uses the election to create a veneer of legitimacy, installing a USDP-dominated parliament that rubber-stamps military decisions. Like Egypt's Sisi after the 2013 coup, Min Aung Hlaing transforms from general to 'elected' leader while maintaining authoritarian control. China and regional powers tacitly accept the arrangement for stability. The NUG remains in exile, ethnic armed groups control borderlands, but the international community gradually normalizes relations with a regime that controls major cities and economic centers. Myanmar becomes another military-dominated state with democratic window dressing.
Resistance Forces Achieve Critical Breakthrough, Junta Collapses
Discussed by: NUG leadership, progressive analysts, some ethnic armed group commanders
The Three Brotherhood Alliance continues its momentum from Operation 1027, capturing more regional commands. The NUG's 'final blow' strategy succeeds in 2025-2026 as defections mount and the military's economic base crumbles under sanctions and battlefield losses. The farcical election demonstrates the regime's weakness rather than its legitimacy, emboldening resistance. China withdraws support rather than back a losing side. Min Aung Hlaing flees or faces capture. A transitional government emerges from the NUG and ethnic armed groups to rebuild a federal democratic Myanmar.
Prolonged Stalemate: Fragmented Myanmar Under Divided Control
Discussed by: Brookings Institution, International Crisis Group, regional security analysts
Neither side achieves decisive victory. The junta controls central Myanmar, major cities, and resource-rich areas with Chinese and Russian support. The NUG and allied ethnic armies govern 'liberated zones' in borderlands and rural areas but lack resources for a final offensive. The election creates a junta-controlled parliament with no real authority beyond regime-held territory. Myanmar effectively splits into military-controlled and resistance-controlled regions. Humanitarian crisis deepens as 22 million need aid. This frozen conflict persists for years, resembling Syria's protracted civil war with pockets of competing authority and no political resolution in sight.
Historical Context
Myanmar's 1990 Election and Annulled Results
1990-2011What Happened
Myanmar's military allowed free elections in 1990 after mass pro-democracy protests. Aung San Suu Kyi's NLD won 81% of seats in a landslide. The junta simply refused to recognize the results, kept Suu Kyi under house arrest for 15 years, and ruled until 2011 when they designed a 'transition' protecting military power.
Outcome
Short term: Two decades of continued military rule despite democratic mandate
Long term: Partial transition in 2011 gave NLD eventual power-sharing role, but military retained veto through 2008 constitution
Why It's Relevant
The 2025 election follows the same playbook in reverse—staged voting to legitimize power the military took by force.
Egypt's 2014 Post-Coup Election
2013-2014What Happened
Egypt's General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi led a July 2013 coup deposing elected President Morsi, then held 2014 elections to legitimize military rule. Security forces massacred 900 protesters at Rabaa Square. Sisi 'won' with 97% as opponents refused to participate or called it a farce. He promised a democratic transition but instead imposed authoritarianism surpassing previous dictators.
Outcome
Short term: Military successfully transformed coup into 'elected' government with international acceptance
Long term: Decade of repression, thousands imprisoned, economic crisis, but regime maintains power
Why It's Relevant
Myanmar's junta is attempting the same transformation—seize power by force, then use elections to claim democratic legitimacy.
Thailand's Cycle of Coups and Managed Elections
2006-2025What Happened
Thailand has experienced 22 coup attempts since 1932, with 13 successful. The 2006 and 2014 coups both overthrew elected governments, followed by military-designed constitutions and controlled elections that embedded military power. The pattern: coup, military rule, new constitution favoring military, managed election, crisis, repeat.
Outcome
Short term: Each coup temporarily stabilized military control
Long term: Cycle continues—2023 elections brought civilian government, but 2025 sees coup fears returning
Why It's Relevant
Shows how military regimes use elections not to restore democracy but to create permanent systems protecting military power through democratic facades.