Junta stages first vote since 2021 coup while civil war rages
January 26th, 2026: Min Aung Hlaing Dismisses International Criticism, Hints at PresidencyNew here? Follow stories to track developments over time. Create a free account to get updates when stories you care about change.
Myanmar's military junta completed its three-phase election on January 25, 2026, with the army-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party winning nearly 90% of contested seats—a predetermined outcome that fools no one. Combined with 166 seats constitutionally reserved for the military, the bloc controls just under 400 seats, well above the 294 needed to form a government. The junta announced parliament will convene in March and a new government will take office in April, completing the theatrical transformation of coup leaders into 'elected' officials. ASEAN explicitly refused to recognize the results—the first time the regional bloc formally rejected a member state's election—while the EU, UK, and UN condemned the exercise as illegitimate.
The facade crumbled as the regime faced genocide charges at the International Court of Justice in hearings that began January 12. The opposition National Unity Government withdrew all objections and accepted ICJ jurisdiction, acknowledging the previous government's failures enabled the Rohingya atrocities—a stark contrast to Aung San Suu Kyi's past defense of the military's genocide. The 80-year-old remains in solitary confinement; her son hasn't heard from her since 2023 and questions whether she's still alive. The question isn't whether Min Aung Hlaing's rigged election succeeded—it's whether the international community will continue treating a junta facing genocide charges and controlling perhaps half the country as Myanmar's legitimate government.
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Fictional AI pastiche — not real quote.
"They've traded in their uniforms for ballots and expect applause—as if democracy were merely a matter of better tailoring. One might admire the audacity if it weren't so tedious: tyranny has always preferred the costume party to the honest stick-up."
Fictional AI pastiche — not real quote.
"The generals wish to wear civilian clothes over their bloodstained uniforms, imagining that elections, like expensive suits, confer legitimacy—but a ballot box cannot baptize murder, and the world knows the difference between consent and a gun to the head. What fascinates me is not that tyrants lie, which is their nature, but that anyone pretends surprise when the mask finally slips: we have always known what price the comfortable will pay to avoid looking directly at atrocity."
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Myanmar's most successful democratic party, dissolved by the regime that couldn't beat it at the ballot box.
Shadow government formed by ousted lawmakers now waging war against the regime.
Ethnic armed groups that launched Operation 1027, the junta's worst battlefield defeat in decades.
The military's political vehicle, staffed by retired generals and guaranteed to win.
Junta chief tours Mandalay polling stations in civilian dress, tells reporters 'we don't really care if the international community recognizes the election' and declines to rule out serving as president.
Malaysia announces ASEAN did not send observers and will not certify election—first clear statement that 11-member regional bloc will not recognize results. Malaysia and Philippines say they will disregard results.
Myanmar's military government begins defense at ICJ, rejecting all allegations of genocide against Rohingya minority through Union Minister Ko Ko Hlaing.
International Court of Justice opens hearings on merits of The Gambia v. Myanmar genocide case concerning 2017 Rohingya atrocities. Hearings continue through January 29.
National Unity Government withdraws all preliminary objections to genocide case, accepts ICJ jurisdiction, and acknowledges previous government's failures enabled atrocities against Rohingya.
Military-backed party wins 86 of 100 contested seats in second phase, bringing total to 233 seats across both chambers after two phases.
Military spokesperson announces parliament will convene in March 2026 with new government taking office by April, completing staged democratic transition.
Military stages vote in 102 townships, canceling elections in 65 others due to fighting. UN and Western governments condemn as illegitimate.
Voting concludes with turnout far below the 70% seen in 2015 and 2020 elections. Few young voters participated, with mostly middle-aged citizens casting ballots.
Aung San Suu Kyi's son releases video calling the junta election 'backed by other dictators, nothing more than a scam.'
Aung San Suu Kyi's son reveals he hasn't heard from his mother since 2023 and fears she could be dead. Junta claims she is 'in good health' without providing evidence.
Arakan Army seizes Western Command headquarters in Ann, second regional command to fall to ethnic forces.
International Criminal Court prosecutor seeks warrant for crimes against humanity over Rohingya genocide.
Three Brotherhood Alliance launches coordinated assault, capturing over 220 junta positions in weeks—worst military defeat in decades.
Military regime bans Myanmar's most popular party, ensuring it cannot contest future elections.
Shadow government launches nationwide revolution, calling for armed uprising against military.
Shadow government forms armed wing, beginning organized military resistance to junta.
National Unity Government established by escaped parliamentarians, claims to be Myanmar's legitimate government.
Hundreds of thousands join civil disobedience movement. Doctors, teachers, bankers refuse to work under military rule.
Min Aung Hlaing seizes power hours before parliament to convene, detaining Suu Kyi and elected leaders, declaring one-year emergency.
NLD wins 396 of 476 seats, even larger victory than 2015. Military-backed USDP wins just 33 seats.
Min Aung Hlaing oversees crackdown driving 750,000 Rohingya into Bangladesh. International community condemns as ethnic cleansing.
Aung San Suu Kyi leads NLD to overwhelming victory, forming first civilian-led government since 1962.
Junta claims 93% approval for constitution guaranteeing military 25% of parliament and control over key ministries, just after Cyclone Nargis.
Aung San Suu Kyi's NLD wins 81% of parliamentary seats. The junta refuses to hand over power, keeping Suu Kyi under house arrest.
Discussed by: UN officials, International Crisis Group analysts, Foreign Policy
The junta successfully uses the election to create a veneer of legitimacy, installing a USDP-dominated parliament that rubber-stamps military decisions. Like Egypt's Sisi after the 2013 coup, Min Aung Hlaing transforms from general to 'elected' leader while maintaining authoritarian control. China and regional powers tacitly accept the arrangement for stability. The NUG remains in exile, ethnic armed groups control borderlands, but the international community gradually normalizes relations with a regime that controls major cities and economic centers. Myanmar becomes another military-dominated state with democratic window dressing.
Discussed by: NUG leadership, progressive analysts, some ethnic armed group commanders
The Three Brotherhood Alliance continues its momentum from Operation 1027, capturing more regional commands. The NUG's 'final blow' strategy succeeds in 2025-2026 as defections mount and the military's economic base crumbles under sanctions and battlefield losses. The farcical election demonstrates the regime's weakness rather than its legitimacy, emboldening resistance. China withdraws support rather than back a losing side. Min Aung Hlaing flees or faces capture. A transitional government emerges from the NUG and ethnic armed groups to rebuild a federal democratic Myanmar.
Discussed by: Brookings Institution, International Crisis Group, regional security analysts
Neither side achieves decisive victory. The junta controls central Myanmar, major cities, and resource-rich areas with Chinese and Russian support. The NUG and allied ethnic armies govern 'liberated zones' in borderlands and rural areas but lack resources for a final offensive. The election creates a junta-controlled parliament with no real authority beyond regime-held territory. Myanmar effectively splits into military-controlled and resistance-controlled regions. Humanitarian crisis deepens as 22 million need aid. This frozen conflict persists for years, resembling Syria's protracted civil war with pockets of competing authority and no political resolution in sight.
Myanmar's military allowed free elections in 1990 after mass pro-democracy protests. Aung San Suu Kyi's NLD won 81% of seats in a landslide. The junta simply refused to recognize the results, kept Suu Kyi under house arrest for 15 years, and ruled until 2011 when they designed a 'transition' protecting military power.
Two decades of continued military rule despite democratic mandate
Partial transition in 2011 gave NLD eventual power-sharing role, but military retained veto through 2008 constitution
The 2025 election follows the same playbook in reverse—staged voting to legitimize power the military took by force.
Egypt's General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi led a July 2013 coup deposing elected President Morsi, then held 2014 elections to legitimize military rule. Security forces massacred 900 protesters at Rabaa Square. Sisi 'won' with 97% as opponents refused to participate or called it a farce. He promised a democratic transition but instead imposed authoritarianism surpassing previous dictators.
Military successfully transformed coup into 'elected' government with international acceptance
Decade of repression, thousands imprisoned, economic crisis, but regime maintains power
Myanmar's junta is attempting the same transformation—seize power by force, then use elections to claim democratic legitimacy.
Thailand has experienced 22 coup attempts since 1932, with 13 successful. The 2006 and 2014 coups both overthrew elected governments, followed by military-designed constitutions and controlled elections that embedded military power. The pattern: coup, military rule, new constitution favoring military, managed election, crisis, repeat.
Each coup temporarily stabilized military control
Cycle continues—2023 elections brought civilian government, but 2025 sees coup fears returning
Shows how military regimes use elections not to restore democracy but to create permanent systems protecting military power through democratic facades.