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Uganda's Forty-Year Strongman Seeks Another Term

Uganda's Forty-Year Strongman Seeks Another Term

Museveni faces Bobi Wine rematch amid internet blackout and biometric failures

Today: Polls open amid biometric system failures

Overview

Yoweri Museveni seized power in 1986 after a five-year bush war. Forty years later, Ugandans voted on January 15 in an election marred by a government-imposed internet blackout, widespread biometric machine failures, and what Amnesty International called a 'brutal campaign of repression' against the opposition. The 81-year-old president faces his 2021 challenger again: Bobi Wine, the 43-year-old pop star turned politician who now campaigns in a bulletproof vest.

The stakes extend beyond Uganda's 21.68 million registered voters. With 70% of the population under 35, unemployment near 50% among youth, and annual corruption losses estimated at $2.7 billion, the election tests whether Africa's entrenched leaders can maintain power through information control and security force deployment—or whether demographic pressure eventually overwhelms institutional manipulation.

Key Indicators

40
Years in power
Museveni has ruled Uganda since capturing Kampala in January 1986
21.68M
Registered voters
53% women, voting across 50,739 polling stations
70%
Population under 35
Youth unemployment near 50%, driving demand for change
48hrs
Results window
Electoral Commission must announce winner by January 17

People Involved

Yoweri Kaguta Museveni
Yoweri Kaguta Museveni
President of Uganda (1986-present) (Seeking seventh term at age 81)
RW
Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu (Bobi Wine)
NUP President, Presidential Candidate (Awaiting 2026 results; campaigns in bulletproof vest)
JB
Justice Simon Mugenyi Byabakama
Chairman, Electoral Commission of Uganda (Overseeing 2026 election administration)

Organizations Involved

NA
National Resistance Movement (NRM)
Political Party / Ruling Party
Status: Controls presidency and parliamentary majority since 1986

Uganda's ruling party since 1986, originally the political wing of Museveni's rebel army.

NA
National Unity Platform (NUP)
Political Party / Opposition
Status: Largest opposition party, led by Bobi Wine

Uganda's largest opposition party, transformed from an obscure party when Bobi Wine's People Power movement merged with it in 2020.

Electoral Commission of Uganda
Electoral Commission of Uganda
Government Agency
Status: Administering 2026 election; results expected within 48 hours

Uganda's election administration body, responsible for voter registration, polling, and result certification.

Timeline

  1. Polls open amid biometric system failures

    Election

    Voting begins but biometric verification machines fail across multiple polling stations. Electoral Commission authorizes manual verification. Voting extended past 4pm to accommodate delays.

  2. Government imposes internet blackout

    Censorship

    Uganda Communications Commission orders service providers to suspend public internet access and halt SIM card sales. Government cites 'misinformation' concerns.

  3. UN condemns pre-election repression

    International

    UN Human Rights Office releases report documenting 'widespread repression and intimidation' affecting the right to political participation.

  4. Amnesty documents 'brutal repression' campaign

    Investigation

    Amnesty International releases findings on systematic use of tear gas, beatings, torture, and arbitrary detention against opposition supporters.

  5. Museveni defends tear gas use against opposition

    Statement

    In a New Year's Eve address, Museveni recommends security forces use more tear gas against 'the criminal opposition,' saying 'it doesn't kill.'

  6. Security forces attack Bobi Wine's Gulu rally

    Violence

    Armed gangs and security forces attack Wine's campaign in northern Uganda. One supporter dies from injuries. Wine begins wearing bulletproof vest at all events.

  7. Museveni confirms seventh-term bid

    Political

    At 81, Museveni officially announces he will seek another five-year term in the January 2026 election.

  8. Museveni declared winner of 2021 election

    Election

    Electoral Commission announces Museveni won with 58% to Wine's 34%. U.S. cancels observation mission, calls process 'fundamentally flawed.' Internet blackout prevents independent verification.

  9. Bobi Wine launches National Unity Platform

    Political

    Wine transforms his People Power movement into a formal party by merging with the obscure NUP, becoming its presidential candidate.

  10. Parliament removes presidential age limit

    Constitutional

    Uganda's parliament votes to eliminate the 75-year age cap for presidents, clearing Museveni's path to run beyond 2021.

  11. Bobi Wine wins parliamentary seat

    Political

    Pop star Robert Kyagulanyi wins a by-election, defeating both NRM and opposition candidates. He enters formal politics.

  12. Referendum removes presidential term limits

    Constitutional

    Ugandans vote to eliminate the two-term limit, allowing Museveni to run indefinitely. The same referendum restored multiparty politics after 19 years.

  13. Museveni captures Kampala, seizes power

    Political

    After a five-year guerrilla war, Museveni's National Resistance Army captures the capital. He declares himself president, promising 'fundamental change.'

Scenarios

1

Museveni Declared Winner, Wine Rejects Results

Discussed by: Africa Center for Strategic Studies, Al Jazeera, CNN analysts

The Electoral Commission declares Museveni the winner within the 48-hour window. Wine, citing the internet blackout's prevention of independent verification and documented biometric failures, refuses to concede and calls for protests. International observers issue mixed statements. The internet remains blocked. Security forces deploy to prevent gatherings. This mirrors the 2021 pattern almost exactly.

2

Results Delayed, Tensions Escalate

Discussed by: Human Rights Watch, opposition legal teams

Technical failures and the internet blackout complicate vote counting beyond the 48-hour deadline. Wine's legal team files challenges before results are announced. Street demonstrations begin despite security presence. Regional neighbors watch nervously given Uganda's role as a transit hub.

3

Wine Claims Victory, Triggers Constitutional Crisis

Discussed by: NUP supporters, some independent polling organizations

Some pre-election polls showed Wine with substantial youth support. If Wine declares victory based on his party's parallel count while Museveni is officially declared winner, Uganda could face competing legitimacy claims. International response would likely be muted given reduced U.S. engagement and EU's decision not to send observers.

4

Post-Election Violence Draws Regional Intervention

Discussed by: East African Community officials, AU observers

Disputed results trigger violence exceeding 2021 levels. Given Uganda's position as a transport hub for landlocked neighbors and host of U.S. deportees under a new agreement, international pressure mounts for mediation. Kenya's 2007-2008 crisis, which required Kofi Annan's intervention, serves as the regional precedent.

Historical Context

Belarus Election and Protests (2020)

August 2020

What Happened

Alexander Lukashenko, in power since 1994, claimed 80% of the vote against challenger Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. The government imposed a 61-hour internet blackout during vote counting. Independent monitors estimated Tsikhanouskaya actually won 60-80% of votes. Hundreds of thousands protested in the largest demonstrations in Belarusian history.

Outcome

Short Term

Security forces arrested thousands, tortured hundreds. The UN documented over 450 cases of torture. IT companies began relocating employees out of the country. Tsikhanouskaya fled to Lithuania.

Long Term

Lukashenko remained in power with Russian backing. The EU and U.S. imposed sanctions but could not force change. Belarus became more dependent on Russia, eventually hosting Russian forces for the 2022 Ukraine invasion. The protests demonstrated that internet shutdowns can work to preserve authoritarian power if external pressure is insufficient.

Why It's Relevant Today

Uganda's playbook mirrors Belarus closely: longtime ruler, internet blackout, security force deployment, international condemnation without enforcement mechanisms. The difference is reduced Western engagement—USAID has closed operations in Uganda, and the Trump administration has explicitly declined to assess election integrity.

Kenya Post-Election Crisis (2007-2008)

December 2007 - February 2008

What Happened

President Mwai Kibaki was declared winner over Raila Odinga in results the electoral commission chairman later said he couldn't verify. Violence erupted primarily along ethnic lines. Over 1,300 people died and 650,000 were displaced. The economy and transport routes collapsed, affecting landlocked neighbors including Uganda.

Outcome

Short Term

Two months of violence ended only through Kofi Annan's mediation, producing a power-sharing deal that made Odinga prime minister. The ICC indicted six officials including future President Uhuru Kenyatta, though cases later collapsed due to witness interference.

Long Term

Kenya adopted a new constitution with checks on executive power. The crisis demonstrated that East African election disputes can rapidly spiral into regional humanitarian emergencies. Uganda's role as a transit hub means its instability would similarly affect neighbors.

Why It's Relevant Today

Kenya 2007 shows how quickly disputed African elections can escalate from political crisis to humanitarian catastrophe, and the difficulty of achieving accountability afterward. Uganda's ethnic composition is different, but youth unemployment (50%) and urbanization create similar combustible conditions.

Uganda 2021 Election (Museveni v. Wine I)

January 2021

What Happened

Museveni won 58% to Wine's 34% amid an internet blackout and widespread allegations of fraud. The U.S. cancelled its observation mission, calling the process 'fundamentally flawed.' Wine was placed under house arrest after voting. Up to 3,000 opposition supporters were abducted during the campaign, with 54 fatalities reported.

Outcome

Short Term

Wine challenged results in court but withdrew, citing judicial bias after photos emerged of the chief justice with Museveni. International condemnation produced no policy change. Internet access was restored after several days.

Long Term

NUP became Uganda's largest opposition party despite the loss. Wine spent years rebuilding, earned a law degree, and returned as the 2026 candidate. The pattern of internet blackout plus security deployment proved effective for regime preservation.

Why It's Relevant Today

The 2026 election is a direct rematch under nearly identical conditions—same candidates, same tactics, same information blackout. The key difference is reduced international engagement: USAID has closed, and the U.S. has announced it will not assess election integrity.

10 Sources:
+4
NPR NBC News Al Jazeera CNN Amnesty International UN Human Rights Office Center for Strategic and International Studies Africa Center for Strategic Studies Daily Monitor Wikipedia