1
Bruce Power Completes All Six Refurbishments On Schedule By 2033
Likely
Discussed by: Bruce Power, Ontario Ministry of Energy, Independent Electricity System Operator
The refurbishment program continues its track record of on-time, on-budget delivery through Units 4, 5, 7, and 8. By 2033, all six reactors operate with extended 40-year lifespans, and output increases from 6,400 MW to over 7,000 MW through efficiency upgrades. Bruce Power maintains its position as North America's leading CANDU refurbishment operator, potentially positioning it for international contracts.
2
Cost Overruns and Delays Plague Later Units
Possible
Discussed by: Energy analysts, Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, past CANDU refurbishment critics
As the program progresses, supply chain constraints, labor shortages, or technical complications cause schedule slippage and budget increases on Units 5, 7, or 8. This would mirror the experience of New Brunswick's Point Lepreau refurbishment, which ran three years late and $1 billion over budget. Critics argue the early successes may not be replicable as the workforce spreads across multiple concurrent projects.
3
Bruce C Expansion Approved, New Reactors Planned
Possible
Discussed by: Ontario government, Bruce Power, Ontario Chamber of Commerce
Building on refurbishment success, Ontario approves the proposed Bruce C project to construct up to 4,800 MW of new nuclear capacity at the Bruce site. An Ontario Chamber of Commerce analysis projects this would add $217 billion to provincial GDP over the plant's lifespan and create 18,900 construction jobs annually. Construction could begin in the early 2030s as refurbishment wraps up.
4
Demand Growth Outpaces Nuclear Expansion
Uncertain
Discussed by: IESO planning outlooks, clean energy advocates, grid analysts
Even with successful refurbishments, the 75% demand growth forecast proves conservative as data centers, EV adoption, and industrial reshoring accelerate faster than expected. Ontario finds itself in supply shortfalls despite maintaining nuclear capacity, forcing reliance on natural gas peakers and imported power—undermining decarbonization goals.
5
Pickering Delay Leaves Ontario Short of Power and Paying More
Possible
Resolves by End of 2031
Discussed by: The Globe and Mail, Ontario ratepayer advocates
Four Pickering reactors sit idle through the 2030s while Bruce Power's remaining units cycle through their own outages. If Pickering slips past its mid-2030s target, or Bruce hits trouble on Units 5, 7 or 8, Ontario covers the gap with gas-fired generation and imports, and the Globe reported concerns that this pushes power prices higher.
